The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins, Colorado, on Friday, Oct. 10. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Fresno State is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. Colorado State, meanwhile, comes in as a +6.5 underdog and is +205 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Fresno State vs. Colorado State prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 10.
Fresno State vs Colorado State Prediction
- Fresno State vs. Colorado State Pick: Colorado State +7 (Play to +6)
My Colorado State vs. Fresno State best bet is on the Rams to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Fresno State vs Colorado State Odds
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Colorado St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
- Fresno State vs Colorado State Spread: Fresno State -6.5, Colorado State +6.5
- Fresno State vs Colorado State Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- Fresno State vs Colorado State Moneyline: Fresno State -250, Colorado State +205
Fresno State vs Colorado State College Football Betting Preview
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Early Downs Are Key
Fresno’s passing efficiency has been solid in the aggregate, and the Bulldogs typically start with favorable field position, averaging a start on their own 33.
That supports a steady diet of early play-action and quick-game concepts.
The soft spot for Fresno is on the ground. Well, Colorado State's defense is constructed to squeeze rushing efficiency (EPA/Rush Allowed of -0.20, 9th) and reduce available yards (36.9% allowed, 33rd).
The Rams are stout on early downs, which are where Fresno likes to set its rhythm. If CSU consistently wins the early downs, Fresno is nudged into obvious passing situations where the Rams can cover with depth and heat.
CSU’s defensive strength has come from limiting its opponents to short-yardage situations, which shrinks playsheets in those circumstances. The Bulldogs must avoid late downs and distances to move the chains throughout the contest consistently.
The recent injury report shows that the Bulldogs are thin in key spots up front and at tight end. Offensive lineman Brayden Walton was ruled out vs. Nevada and remains a question for this week, and tight end Brock Lium is out.
If Fresno’s line isn't at full strength in altitude, early-down efficiency becomes harder to sustain. The Bulldogs defeated Nevada last week, but their offense fell asleep at the wheel in the second half.
Colorado State Rams Betting Preview: Keep the Run Game Going
Colorado State’s profile is the inverse of Fresno State's.
The Rams generate their best offense on the ground and need that run threat to stay ahead of schedule.
Their passing efficiency has lagged, ranking 104th in EPA/Pass. It's been so bad to the point of multi-year starting quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi getting benched for Jackson Brousseau.
The key is to avoid third-and-long entirely, which is something they can do if the early-down run efficiency holds up and the quick passing game complements it. The offense must get ahead of the chains and capitalize whenever it gets into scoring position.
Fresno State’s defense is engineered to break that plan.
The Bulldogs are elite against the run, ranking ninth in EPA/Rush Allowed, and stingy on early downs, forcing opponents into predictable passing downs where Fresno can sit on routes and rally.
Therefore, the opening CSU script should feature perimeter RPOs, screens and light box runs to lighten the front, then take selective downfield shots.
Fresno’s pass defense has been a much softer unit, ranking 96th in EPA/Pass allowed.
It's important to note that CSU has had its fair share of injuries on the defensive line and the secondary. It could be regaining some players this week, but there's no official word yet.
Fresno State vs Colorado State Pick, Betting Analysis
Fresno State is priced like a full-score favorite on the road despite several matchups pointing toward a game that compresses margins.
CSU’s top-10 run defense, Fresno’s middling run offense, and both defenses' impressive early-down numbers make me believe we'll have a much closer contest than the market expects.
In Fort Collins at 5,000-plus feet, thin front-seven depth often shows up late. Fresno’s recent offensive line and tight end injuries are not ideal. Colorado State’s defensive strengths match up directly with Fresno State’s offensive weaknesses.
On the other side, the Rams don’t need an explosive offense; they need enough early-down success to keep Fresno’s run defense honest and to target the Bulldogs’ softer secondary.
They've looked atrocious lately, but I'm buying low on the Rams and selling the Bulldogs high.
Pick: Colorado State +7 (Play to +6)
