The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Auburn Tigers in Auburn, Alabama. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Georgia is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 46.5 points.
Here’s my Georgia vs. Auburn predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
Georgia vs Auburn Prediction
- Georgia vs. Auburn Pick: Auburn +3.5 or Better
My Auburn vs. Georgia best bet is on the Tigers to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Georgia vs Auburn Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
- Georgia vs Auburn point spread: Georgia -3.5
- Georgia vs Auburn over/under: 46.5 points
- Georgia vs Auburn moneyline: Georgia -170, Auburn +145
Georgia vs Auburn Pick
Georgia arguably should have beaten Alabama, but it probably should have lost at Tennessee. A rightful wash, but this isn't the same elite-tier Georgia team we saw a few years ago.
And similar to my Alabama-Missouri breakdown, I don't think there's as wide a gap between the top SEC teams and the second-tier (where Auburn falls) than the market presumes.
Consequently, I can't get this spread even to a field goal after adjusting for the spot and home-field, so I happily took the hook with the home Tigers, who will come off of a much-needed bye week after one of the nation's most vicious schedules to start the season with three road games against Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M.
This will mark Auburn's first marquee home game, which is even more critical for this specific squad with Jackson Arnold at the helm. He clearly struggled in hostile environments with the pre-snap communication between him and Hugh Freeze, who now can act as Arnold's personal movie director before each play in the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium.
That's massive for a limited quarterback like Arnold, who struggles to read defenses and change plays on his own. He may also benefit significantly from the bye week in a brand new offense after several tough tests to start 2025, where the timing was clearly off with his receivers.
That's even more important against a Georgia defense that remains vulnerable on the back end in coverage, which could lead to banner days for the talented Auburn wide receivers. It should also result in increased success on passing downs — an area where Arnold struggled on the road.
Georgia also doesn't boast the same ferocious pass rush as your older brother's version of the Dawgs, who only have seven sacks on the entire season. Auburn's front struggled to contain all of the twists and stunts they saw from Texas A&M and Oklahoma, but that hasn't really been a strength of a Bulldog pass rush that ranks 108th nationally in sacks per game.
For comparison, the Aggies and Sooners rank in the top six nationally, and the top 15 if you remove their matchups against Auburn.
And while Georgia's run defense has graded out exceptionally well, it has yet to really face a mobile quarterback like Arnold. Mobile quarterbacks have given Kirby Smart's defenses fits in the past. Expect Freeze, one of the best play designers and game planners in the sport, to attack those vulnerabilities, especially with a full two weeks to prepare for this particular matchup with the healthiest this roster all season.
When Georgia has the ball, Auburn's secondary will need to step up against the Georgia wideouts, who will have an advantage on the outside. However, I don't expect the Bulldogs to get much on the ground against an immovable Tiger run defense that ranks in the top three nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.
That should open up opportunities for Auburn's elite pass rushers, led by Keldric Faulk, to wreak havoc on Gunnar Stockton, whose completion percentage drops nearly 35 percentage points when under pressure compared to when kept clean.
To me, Auburn profiles as a team to play on in big games at home this season and either an avoid or fade on the road. Although the Tigers did win easily in Waco and actually had chances to pull off upsets in both Norman (despite Venables' inside knowledge of Arnold's strengths and weaknesses) and College Station ��� two of the toughest places to play in the country — even with those pre-snap communication limitations. The Tigers were severely outplayed by the Aggies, but could have easily beaten the Sooners if not for a few brutal calls against them.
I'd argue Auburn has the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball in this game and has the more talented skill position group in a matchup of two vulnerable secondaries. Georgia has the better quarterback, which matters, but I don't consider Stockton to be elite.
Throw in the spot and the Freeze edge at home off the bye, and I had to take the hook here with the home pup.
Pick: Auburn +3.5 or Better
