The Hawai'i Warriors take on the UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Friday, Nov. 21. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
UNLV is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Hawaii, meanwhile, enters as a +3 underdog and is +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 64.5 total points.
Here’s my Hawaii vs. UNLV prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 21.
Hawaii vs UNLV Prediction
- Hawaii vs. UNLV Pick: Over 64.5
My UNLV vs. Hawaii best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Hawaii vs UNLV Odds
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- Hawaii vs UNLV Spread: UNLV -3, Hawaii +3
- Hawaii vs UNLV Over/Under: 64.5 Points
- Hawaii vs UNLV Moneyline: Hawaii +120, UNLV -140
Hawaii vs UNLV College Football Betting Preview
When Hawaii Has the Ball
If you like points, this matchup sets up almost perfectly for an over because both offenses walk into clear efficiency advantages against defenses that consistently give up chunk yardage early in drives.
Hawaii's passing game, while inconsistent, actually profiles better than people think, ranking 52nd in EPA/Pass.
It now gets a UNLV defense that sits at 64th in EPA/Pass allowed and a brutal 110th in Early Downs EPA/Play allowed, meaning the Rebels regularly give up gains that extend drives.
That’s a huge green light for a Hawaii team that avoids long-yardage situations, and the numbers back it up: Hawaii sits 24th nationally in average third-down distance (6.60), so it can sustain possessions and score.
Even the one weakness Hawaii has — a rushing attack ranked 129th in EPA/Rush — becomes much less relevant in a matchup where UNLV’s defense is even worse against the run at 134th nationally, allowing a sky-high +0.19 EPA/Rush.
If Hawaii’s run game ever has a “get-right” week, it’s this one.
I can't stress enough how bad UNLV's defense is. It's among the worst units in the entire FBS. Its pass defense metrics appear far better than their actual secondary is.
When UNLV Has the Ball
On the other side, UNLV’s offense is built to shred this Hawaii defense.
The Rebels come in with one of the cleanest two-dimensional efficiency profiles in the Mountain West, ranking 32nd in EPA/Pass and an elite eighth in EPA/Rush.
That’s a nightmare for a Hawaii defense that sits 33rd against the pass, which is respectable, but it's horrendous against the run, ranking 125th in EPA/Rush allowed.
The Rebels should carve the Rainbow Warriors up early, force Hawaii to adjust, and then open up explosive passing opportunities off favorable down-and-distance, especially since the 'Bows allow opponents to gain 42.5% of available yards, which ranks outside the top 70.
Both defenses also rank in the bottom 40 nationally in Early Downs EPA allowed.
The Rebels offense is also elite on money downs, with its 49.5% conversion rate ranking top-20 nationally. Hawaii is one of the worst defenses in the country at getting off the field and allowing explosives.
Hawaii vs UNLV Pick, Betting Analysis
When you combine UNLV’s massive rushing advantage, two pass defenses that allow efficiency on early downs, Hawaii’s sneaky passing profile and two offenses that consistently avoid long third downs, you get a matchup with long drives and plenty of explosives.
That means scoring will come in waves instead of isolated moments.
Add in the stylistic fit and Hawaii’s tempo, and the over becomes the clear play.
These efficiency mismatches on both sides point to a game that gets into the 70s unless both teams implode offensively. Neither defense has the metrics to suggest it will be low-scoring.
This has all the ingredients of a fast, high-efficiency track meet in Vegas.
Pick: Over 64.5
Hawaii vs UNLV Betting Trends
