2019 Heisman Odds Tracker: Did Burrow’s Win Over Alabama End the Race?
Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Burrow
- Joe Burrow is now a -1000 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy after beating Alabama.
- Tua Tagovailoa has fallen back from 3/1 to 10/1 as a result of the game as well.
Entering this past weekend’s matchup in Tuscaloosa, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow was already a sizable favorite to win this year’s Heisman Trophy. At 6/5 odds (+120), he was given a 45.45% chance to win the award, followed by his Saturday counterpart, Tua Tagovailoa, at 3/1 (25% implied odds).
Things look a bit different now.
A 46-41 victory — in which he completed 31 of 39 passes for 393 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions — has skyrocketed Burrow’s odds up to -1000, implying a greater than 90% chance that he walks home with the award one month from now.
As for Tua, his odds dropped down to 10/1, joining the second tier of quarterbacks on this list: Justin Fields (8/1) and Jalen Hurts (also 10/1).
Beyond the top four, though, no other player sits inside 40/1. Chase Young, who had worked his way up to 8/1 before being removed from the board this past week, has returned at 100/1 amidst his NCAA violation investigation. After being sidelined against Maryland on Saturday, his status for this weekend’s game against Rutgers is uncertain.
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2019 Heisman Odds Tracker
Odds as of Nov. 12 via Westgate SuperBook. Click “Implied Probability” to sort.
Biggest Heisman Movers, Preseason
Several players have seen their odds improve throughout the summer — mainly quarterbacks.
- Joe Burrow, LSU QB (200/1 to 40/1)
- Jake Fromm, UGA QB (40/1 to 18/1)
- Khalil Tate, Arizona QB (100/1 to 40/1)
- Sam Ehlinger, Texas QB (40/1 to 20/1)
In accompanying moves, Westgate moved several quarterbacks toward the top of the board down. These are still three of the top five betting choices on the board, though.
A handful of skill position players also saw their odds fall.
- Justin Fields, Ohio State QB (6/1 to 12/1)
- Adrian Martinez, Nebraska QB (6/1 to 10/1)
- Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma QB (6/1 to 12/1)
- Jerry Jeudy, Alabama WR (30/1 to 80/1)
- Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin RB (15/1 to 25/1)
Who Can Win the Heisman?
Be a quarterback or running back
You should really be a quarterback, though. A signal caller has won every Heisman Trophy but five since 1998, and only three since 2000.
Play at a Power 5 school
In the BCS/College Football Playoff era (since 1998), no Group of 5 player (MAC, AAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West, Conference USA currently) has won it.
Win 9 games, but hopefully more
In the BCS/CFP era, only one Heisman winner has won fewer than nine games, and that was Ricky Williams in 1998 on an 8-3 Texas team. Oh, and he set the NCAA record for rushing yards.
Only three Heisman winners since 1998 won fewer than 10.
Put up an eye-popping statistical profile
Yards per play and other efficiency metrics aren’t counted here. It’s about raw, eye-popping statistical numbers.
Heisman Betting History
SportsOddsHistory.com has data going back to 2009, when Mark Ingram took home the Heisman.
Many players didn’t have odds listed preseason because they came out of nowhere — Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel among them.