The Indiana Hoosiers take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. Indiana, meanwhile, comes in as a +7.5 underdog and is +240 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55 points.
Here’s my Indiana vs. Oregon prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 11.
Indiana vs Oregon Prediction
- Indiana vs. Oregon Pick: Over 55 · Oregon Team Total Over 31.5
My Oregon vs. Indiana best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Indiana vs Oregon Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 55 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 55 -110o / -110u | -300 |
- Indiana vs Oregon Spread: Oregon -7.5
- Indiana vs Oregon Over/Under: 55 Points
- Indiana vs Oregon Moneyline: Indiana +240, Oregon -300
Indiana vs Oregon College Football Betting Preview
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Rolling Under Cignetti
Head coach Curt Cignetti will take his top-ranked Havoc defense to Eugene for a chance to remain undefeated on the season.
The primary driver in creating defensive chaos comes from a rank of third in tackles for loss, as linebacker Isaiah Jones and defensive lineman Kellan Wyatt are both individually ranked top-25 nationally in the category.
The remainder of the defense has been best in FBS, with top-10 rankings in Line Yards, tackling, Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
The area of concern comes via rush explosives allowed, with Indiana ranking in the bottom 10 of FBS. Both Old Dominion and Kennesaw State started the season posting five combined rushing attempts that went over 20 yards.
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has improved an Indiana offense that made the College Football Playoff a year ago. The Cal transfer has 16 passing touchdowns with a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.3% on 124 passing attempts.
Mendoza has dominated quarters coverage with a 77% Success Rate and an explosive on one out of every four attempts.
The Hoosiers are a run-first team with a 62% rush rate. They're dominant with inside zone calls for the backfield duo of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black.
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Defense Not as Strong as Offense
Head coach Dan Lanning has two weeks to not only prepare for Indiana, but also settle a roster coming off one of the biggest road victories of the season. Oregon knocked off Penn State with a 75% post-game win expectancy just two weeks ago.
The Ducks were stuffed on only 7-of-39 carries, as seven of their 11 drives featured at least two first downs.
Quarterback Dante Moore brought his passing touchdowns up to 14 on the season; he's recorded just two turnover-worthy plays on the season.
The combination of running backs Jayden Limar and Dierre Hill Jr. has produced 15 explosives, with the latter averaging 7.2 yards after first contact.
The defense hasn't been quite as successful as the offense, struggling against outside zone rush concepts while failing to create a pass rush. The Ducks sit outside the top 50 in Havoc and are 114th in Defensive Stuff Rate.
The 3-3-5 personnel is powered by a top-25 coverage and tackling grade, limiting pass explosives by opponents at a top-10 rate.
Linebacker Jerry Mixon has been one of the best at his position in pass coverage, posting two interceptions and three pass breakups.
Indiana vs Oregon Pick, Betting Analysis
The Indiana offense has been committed to one particular rush concept: inside zone. The concept has been run 128 times compared to 17 attempts of outside zone and 50 attempts using man blocking techniques.
This is an advantage for the Oregon defense, which has struggled severely against outside zone but improved to a national average level of 51% efficiency against inside zone.
The Hoosiers would have better success lining up and handing off in man blocking, as that concept has trimmed the Ducks to a 41% Success Rate.
The Hoosiers have a strength of schedule rank of 70th, drawing attention to their marks of 130th in Rush EPA allowed and 126th in standard downs EPA allowed.
There were busted runs against the Hoosiers to open the season, but they allowed just one rush to go for 20 yards in two games against Iowa and Illinois.
The ultimate test for the Hoosiers will be Oregon's receiving corps of Dakorien Moore and Malik Benson, who are both averaging more than 2.3 yards per route run.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Oregon to be favored by nine, giving minimal value on the Ducks until the market shifts to a flat -7.
However, there will be an investment on the full-game over and Oregon's team total over.
Indiana should have success in man concepts with Black against the Ducks' defense, but Oregon's inside zone will test the Hoosiers' checkered resume against run explosives.
Pick: Over 55 · Oregon Team Total Over 31.5 or Better
