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The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, Arizona, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arizona is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -345. Iowa State, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +270 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Arizona prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
Iowa State vs Arizona Prediction
- Iowa State vs. Arizona Pick: Arizona 1H -6.5 or better
My Arizona vs. Iowa State best bet is on the Wildcats in the first half at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Arizona Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -122 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +270 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 +100 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -345 |
- Iowa State vs Arizona point spread: Arizona -10.5 (+100), Iowa State +10.5 (-122)
- Iowa State vs Arizona over/under: 50.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Iowa State vs Arizona moneyline: Iowa State +270, Arizona -345
Iowa State vs Arizona College Football Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Rogers Leading the Way
Let's start with a quick, yet likely infuriating thought exercise. Did Iowa State suffer a greater coaching downgrade than Penn State this offseason?
Hell, did Iowa State suffer a coaching downgrade at all?
Given the state of the roster — 55 players left following Matt Campbell's departure — not many coaches are doing more with less than Jimmy Rogers so far this season.
Iowa State sits at 3-3 on the season with a couple of rough games (outgained 506-200 at BYU despite the modest 24-10 final), but the Cyclones scored a 45-42 win over West Virginia and dominated Bowling Green in a fashion you'd expect from a Big 12/MAC matchup. That can't be said for all teams.
The offense isn't great (77th in Points Per Drive), but that's to be expected from a team gutted for all its parts with the replacements coming from Washington State and Arkansas State.
It's feast or famine for this Cyclone offense.
In wins, Iowa State averages 46 points per game and has eight touchdowns of 20-plus yards (plus two more on returns), but no power conference team goes three-and-out more frequently than Iowa State, which does so on 31% of drives.
Under defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbit, Iowa State has taken a unique (likely unintended) bend-don't-break approach. It requires a ton of help from opposing offenses, who have refused to convert on late downs or inside the red zone.
BYU put up over 500 yards of offense but failed three times to convert fourth downs and scored just 24 points (we now know it's because it was saving all the tricks for Notre Dame the next week).
Overall, Iowa State stands inside the top seven nationally in late-down Success Rate allowed.
Credit to Bobbit because his late-down play calling has been brilliant, but it's a rather unsustainable approach to defense, especially giving up chunk yards on early downs.
Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview: Good Offense, Bad Defense
Arizona's skill corps is taking a beating this season.
Receivers Chris Hunter III (25 targets) and Giovanni Richardson (16 targets in three games) have sat the last few games, and walking highlight reel Tre Spivey is done for the year. Tight end Cole Rusk also hasn't played since Week 3.
Ideally, the bye week gets at least some of these guys healthy.
Regardless, quarterback Noah Fifita keeps the train moving. Arizona has scored 34-plus in each of its last four games and in every game this year, save for Week 2 at BYU (the current No. 2 team in the nation).
Despite being a truly elite quarterback, Fifita receives almost no recognition.
In his fifth year and fourth as a starter, Fifita continues to fly under the radar and get production from whoever's available. Six Wildcats have 125-plus receiving yards, and seven have a receiving touchdown.
There are some defensive concerns, though.
Arizona allowed 24 points to Washington State (a season-high before Wazzu made a change at QB), 17 to NIU (then a season-best against FBS competition) and three touchdown drives of 75-plus yards to BYU.
Tackling is an issue for the Wildcats, who allow far too many explosive plays to be considered a legitimate conference contender in a wide-open Big 12.
But that defense has cleaned up in the past couple of weeks.
Arizona stifled Cincinnati to just seven points (42nd in Points Per Drive) and West Virginia to 31 (tied for its second-lowest total on the season).
On a down-to-down basis, the 'Cats defense is exceptional. But 27 plays of 20-plus yards allowed is far too many and could cost this team wins at Texas Tech and against Utah.
Iowa State vs Arizona Pick, Betting Analysis
Arizona has a slight rest advantage, coming off a bye week and playing at home, while Iowa State (which also comes off a bye) must travel to Tucson for its second game in the Mountain Time Zone this year.
Arizona has maintained its status as a 10-10.5 point favorite throughout most of the week, while the point total has bounced around 51 points. Since 51 is a critical number in college football, you must be savvy when betting this total.
Iowa State is better than expected, but it's not a good football team. In losses this year, the offense generated 16 total points in the first half. Odds suggest Iowa State will lose this football game.
Arizona is a team that has gotten off to a few hot starts, leading in five of its six games this year at halftime (including at BYU!). Fifita is a veteran who knows how to rally and conduct his offense, regardless of his help out wide.
The Wildcats should handle the Cyclones in Tucson on Saturday. Should the game script play out, that also suggests a halftime lead for Arizona, and we can buy it under a touchdown.
Pick: Arizona 1H -6.5 or Better
Iowa State vs Arizona Betting Trends
