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The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on Fox Sports 1.
Texas Tech is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 56.5 points.
Here’s my Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026.
Texas Tech vs Cincinnati Prediction
- Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati Pick: Cincinnati +10.5 or Better
My Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech best bet is on Cincinnati to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
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Texas Tech vs Cincinnati Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | -450 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | +340 |
- Texas Tech vs Cincinnati point spread: Texas Tech -10.5 (-110), Cincinnati +10.5 (-110)
- Texas Tech vs Cincinnati over/under: 56.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Texas Tech vs Cincinnati moneyline: Texas Tech -450, Cincinnati +340
Texas Tech vs Cincinnati College Football Preview
Despite three straight covers following a shaky start to the season, I still maintain the Red Raiders are overrated in the market.
After a shaky start to the season, those three covers came against Sam Houston, Colorado (which outgained T,T 375-314) and Arizona State. That's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents.
Plus, almost all of those scores are a bit misleading due to some bounces that have gone Tech's way. Over that three-game stretch, the Red Raiders have benefited from nine takeaways and seven failed fourth-down attempts.
They also lead the nation in defensive touchdowns, which isn't really sustainable, especially against a quarterback like JC French IV, who has yet to throw an interception or have a turnover-worthy play.
This is just not the same caliber of team we saw run through the Big 12 with ease last season. The passing attack has regressed, and the defense is nowhere close to as dominant without a number of its best players along the front seven who now litter NFL rosters as primary contributors, including:
- LB Jacob Rodriguez
- DE David Bailey
- OLB Romello Height
- DT Lee Hunter
Last year, Tech's secondary never had to do much work since its defensive front generated such overwhelming quick pressure.
Well, with a decline in that department (particularly off the edge), the defensive backfield has started to get exposed a bit this season, especially without the steadying presence of safety Cole Wisniewski, who was the unheralded leader of the back end in 2025.
The Red Raiders can still generate interior pressure with the likes of A.J. Holmes Jr. and company, but Cincy's outstanding interior offensive line can neutralize that strength in the trenches.
That should give French enough time to find his receivers in the short passing game against a vulnerable secondary.
However, it all starts with the ground game for the Bearcats (top-30 rush rate nationally), who rank in the top 15 in both rushing yards per attempt and per game.
Cole Tabb is one of two running backs in the country (min. 25 attempts) who average over 9.0 yards per attempt, along with Colorado State's Mel Brown.
Cincy will utilize plenty of outside zone, which the Red Raiders have struggled to contain so far this season.
The Bearcats should have success on early downs and have plenty of manageable third-down situations to keep the chains moving while controlling time of possession.
Assuming Cincy can churn out yards with its heavy outside zone-based rushing attack, that should set up some easy completions off play-action (which Cincy uses at a top-15 rate nationally), where French has thrived with a nearly 80% adjusted completion percentage to go along with seven touchdowns and no interceptions.
Now, the Cincy defense has major warts, especially in the secondary.
Four of its five starters consist of G6 transfers (the Bearcats rank outside the top 100 in Pass EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed), but I just don't trust Will Hammond (who has just seven big-time throws to nine turnover-worthy plays in 2026) to consistently exploit those deficiencies.
Hammond is also basically just ignoring the left side of the field (only 11% of his attempts have gone that direction), which makes this offense easier to scout.
Following back-to-back Bearcat losses, I'm buying low on the home running 'dog catching 10.5 in a game I project at under 10, while selling a potentially fat-and-happy Tech team that I believe is still a tad overvalued.
Pick: Cincinnati +10.5 or Better
