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The West Virginia Mountaineers take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
TCU is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -365. West Virginia, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +285 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 points.
Here’s my West Virginia vs. TCU prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
West Virginia vs TCU Prediction
- West Virginia vs. TCU Pick: Under 56.5Â (Play to 55.5)
My TCU vs. West Virginia best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
West Virginia vs TCU Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -104 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +285 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -118 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -365 |
- West Virginia vs TCU point spread: TCU -9.5 (-118), West Virginia +9.5 (-104)
- West Virginia vs TCU over/under: 56.5 (-110o / -110u)
- West Virginia vs TCU moneyline: West Virginia +285, TCU -365
West Virginia vs TCU College Football Preview
West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview: A Roller Coaster
Glass half-full: West Virginia's offense is a ton of fun, and it's clear Rich Rodriguez still has his fastball.
Glass half-empty: Scoring 35-plus points per game is entirely necessary when your defense allows 38.5 per game.
You have to travel back to Nov. 15, 2025, to find the last time West Virginia held a Big 12 opponent under 40 points. That's five consecutive conference games in which the Mountaineers have needed to find 42 or more to have a chance and, unsurprisingly, WVU is 1-4 in those games.
Take your pick, run or pass, and WVU can't defend it. Only Colorado State is worse in yards per dropback (10.2!) and yards per play (7.9!).
To make things worse, top cornerback Nick Taylor missed the last two games. Though he's on the Week 8 depth chart, Taylor's status is worth monitoring.
Fortunately for WVU, the backfield combo of quarterback Michael Hawkins and running back Cam Cook is one of the most dangerous in the country.
Hawkins leads the FBS in 15+-yard pass plays and 10+-yard runs, and the Mountaineers are 15th in EPA Per Rush.
Cook, who led the country in rushing at Jacksonville State last year, sits fifth with 833 yards and has the most carries (he did see a 40% decrease last game). Cook is also a former Horned Frog, signing with TCU in 2023.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Offense in Quicksand
The bye week really did TCU good. It returned top receiver Jordan Dwyer and tweaked its offensive approach to quit running into brick walls.
Quarterback Jaden Craig, who has had a rough start to the season, played his best game against power conference competition, throwing for nearly 300 yards and both of TCU's touchdowns.
Dwyer and sophomore Ed Small accounted for 241 of Craig's 294 yards (82%) and TCU's 327 team yards (74%). Sustainable or not, Craig at least has a couple of trustworthy weapons.
While new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis' system tries to adapt to Sonny Dykes' philosophies, TCU's offense is struggling.
The run game is the second-worst in the country behind Kent State (34% Success Rate) due in part to a really bad offensive line. Whether it's not getting push up front in the run game or giving up 11 sacks in the last three games, this unit is a liability.
Center Jaheim Buchanon has been as liable as anyone (four sacks accounted for, five penalties called), but it's clear Sammis doesn't have a replacement.
It's fortunate that Andy Avalos' defense has finally rounded into form. It ranks top-10 in Points Per Drive allowed, opponent-adjusted EPA Per Play allowed and yards per dropback thanks to lights-out play from its secondary.
Cornerback Vernon Glover Jr. and safety Jamel Johnson are both all-conference-level players putting a lid on opposing offenses. TCU held BYU to 17 points and Baylor to six in its last two games.
The toughest opponents still lie ahead; TCU travels to Arizona and Texas Tech, and hosts Kansas State and Utah before the season ends.
Sammis, Craig & Co. must find some success on offense, or TCU will be staring down a losing season for the first time since 2023.
West Virginia vs TCU Pick, Betting Analysis
It's been a one-sided affair in this game. TCU moved from -6.5 at open all the way to -10 in some spots by midweek. There has been little buyback for WVU.
The Mountaineers have been a pain point for the Horned Frogs over the last decade. WVU sprung three outright upsets of TCU in Fort Worth in each of the last three meetings, though under different management.
Each side presents an interesting data point.
Can TCU's elite defense slow down WVU's seemingly unstoppable offense? Can TCU's immovable offense find success against a nonexistent WVU defense? We'll see both the nation's best and the nation's worst run games in action on the same field.
The strength in TCU's defense comes in its secondary. It's a strong coverage unit but also an excellent tackling unit. Against a back like Cook and an option scheme like Rich Rod's, a sound tackling secondary is Kryptonite.
Avalos' 3-3-5 utilizes TCU's team speed and works really effectively thanks to a monstrous nose tackle in Markis Deal, who comes in at 6-foot-5 and 325 pounds. It's a great counter to WVU's option attack.
I still don't trust TCU's offense, even against the worst defenses in the FBS. The Horned Frogs are still schematically confused with one answer: throw the ball to Dwyer.
They run a new snap every 27.8 seconds and almost never go three-and-out. Expect sustained drives, even if they don't translate into points, as TCU scores a touchdown on just 28.8% of drives to rank 89th nationally.
The natural counter for a fast-paced and explosive run-focused offense is to sit on the ball. TCU is well equipped to do just that and not explosive enough to cover most of this point total.
Pick: Under 56.5Â (Play to 55.5)
West Virginia vs TCU Betting Trends
