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The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FS1.
Baylor is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. Iowa State, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +280 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Baylor prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Iowa State vs Baylor Prediction
- Iowa State vs. Baylor Pick: Iowa State Team Total Under 20.5 (Play to 17.5)
My Baylor vs. Iowa State best bet is on the Cyclones to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Baylor Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -104 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -118 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
- Iowa State vs Baylor point spread: Baylor -9.5 (-118), Iowa State +9.5 (-104)
- Iowa State vs Baylor over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Iowa State vs Baylor moneyline: Iowa State +280, Baylor -360
Iowa State vs Baylor College Football Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Forgiving Defenses on Schedule
Welcome to the roller-coaster ride that is the 2026 Iowa State football season.
The Cyclones have played up to competition — they nearly knocked off Iowa on the road and have scored 45-plus three times — but also have gotten steamrolled (39-3 loss off a bye at Arizona).
They've navigated one of the tougher schedules in the Big 12, having played four of the top six teams and playing No. 7 this coming week (in consensus power rating).
Head coach Jimmy Rogers has done a great job given the circumstances. Iowa State was picked a distant last in the conference after losing 55 players from the 2025 roster when Matt Campbell left for Penn State.
There was no obvious path to scoring on offense, and a defense returning two FBS starters was expected to be the crutch. Instead, Iowa State sits 4-4 with some gettable teams left on the slate.
The offense runs through running back Aiden Flora as transfer quarterback Jaylen Raynor struggles in the adjustment to the Power 4 level.
The offense is also exceptionally limited to what opposing defenses are willing to give up. Against West Virginia and Oklahoma State, No. 117 and No. 98 in Points Per Drive allowed, Iowa State ripped off 96 combined points.
But against Arizona (35th) and BYU (22nd), Iowa State was held to 13 combined points.
You don't need a super advanced technical deep dive to solve this offense. Against better defenses, it's going to struggle because it doesn't have the line or the horses to keep up.
But offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl will find points against the more forgiving defenses. Luckily for Iowa State, there are more forgiving defenses than not left on the November slate.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: 1-0 Interim Head Coach
Talk about an interim bump — Baylor finally parted ways with Dave Aranda and immediately laid a 41-9 beatdown on UCF in an obvious letdown spot for the Knights.
But Baylor took care of business on the road in the matter, and quarterback DJ Lagway played as well this game as he has all year with 319 yards and four touchdowns.
Interim head coach and defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman comes from a pedigree of winning culture. He spent most of his career under Chris Klieman — who retired with a 126-47 head coaching record — and, in his seven years at Kansas State, Klanderman won as many Big 12 Championships as he suffered losing seasons.
He's a sensible interim who should be in serious consideration to follow Aranda.
In just one season, Klanderman turned Baylor around from 122nd in Points Per Drive allowed to 13th. Only one opponent has cracked 20 when Kansas did so in Aranda's final game.
The question remains, just how long does this interim bump last for Baylor?
That blowout win over UCF wasn't an emotionally-fueled victory rallying around its interim coach. Though an obvious letdown spot for UCF (which had just upset BYU the week before), this was a thorough drubbing where Baylor outgained UCF, 503-281, and logged seven sacks on the road.
Given Baylor's defensive prowess and continuity there, plus the opportunity for Lagway to open up without the seriously questionable coaching practice under Aranda, the Bears are a very dangerous team moving forward.
The final stretch of the season is very tough — Baylor plays BYU (away), Texas Tech (home) and Houston (away) to close the year — but don't expect last week's result to be anomalous.
Iowa State vs Baylor Pick, Betting Analysis
Early market indicators suggest that under the point total was a sharp play. However, this line moved through both 51 and 52, critical numbers in college football totals betting. Chasing the under now would not be a sharp play at 50.5.
Only Tennessee and New Mexico have a higher Havoc rate forced this year than Baylor (21.7%).
Arizona sacked Raynor four times and only 10% of Iowa State's drives ended in a score; its offensive line was completely overwhelmed, and its offensive engine, Flora, was completely shut down (36 rushing yards).
Iowa State's road schedule this year has been tough (Iowa, BYU, Arizona) but it's winless away from Ames and those offensive performances have been atrocious. Its 35.1% Success Rate on the road ranks 135th in the country.
That road slate doesn't get any easier this week against a vicious defense known for causing Havoc. No offense has found a lick of success on the ground against Baylor (even Kansas' 200 yards came by way of just 3.7 per carry), which stands 12th with just 2.9 yards per carry allowed.
Baylor will force Raynor to control the offense, something the Arkansas State transfer hasn't been able to do against Big 12 competition. This is also a huge letdown spot for Iowa State, which hits the road after its wild 51-49 upset over Oklahoma State.
Pick: Iowa State Team Total Under 20.5 (Play to 17.5)
