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Welcome to college football Week 10.
For the ninth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and Stuckey pick their two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
For Week 10 of the season, they're rolling with two Power 4 teams playing at home, including a ranked matchup. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at nearly 5-1 at the time of writing.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Texas vs. Missouri and Duke vs. NC State on Saturday, November 7.
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College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 10
Missouri ML +120 vs. Texas
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -142 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
I’m going with Missouri here.
I don’t like anything about this injury report for Texas with Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo and Colin Simmons all showing up on it.
Also, head coach Steve Sarkisian may think Arch Manning is playing great with his three touchdowns, but none of those were big-time throws. He’s also had two turnover-worthy plays in his last four games, and he just isn’t dependable right now.
The biggest stat in this matchup is that Texas ranks 136th offensively in Havoc allowed, while Missouri’s defense ranks 14th in Havoc created. That’s a major edge for the Tigers. You can expect sacks, tackles for loss, fumbles and interceptions.
This Texas offense can’t run the ball, and Arch doesn’t know where to go with it half the time. If Coleman and Wingo are limited or out, that only makes things worse.
Give me Mizzou.
NC State ML +160 vs. Duke
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 51.5 -112o / -108u | -192 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 51.5 -112o / -108u | +160 |
By Stuckey
I’m gonna go with NC State against Duke.
This feels like a tricky spot for Duke after a huge win, especially with Miami coming up next. And who has it really beaten? They haven’t exactly been battle-tested. This is also the same team that was favored by this number at Georgia Tech and lost.
There are a couple of signs that some regression could be coming too. Duke has a 90% fumble recovery rate, which leads the nation. That’s probably not something you can count on holding up.
NC State, meanwhile, has already been through it a bit more. The Pack have played Wake Forest and Louisville, while Duke’s ACC schedule has included Stanford, Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia and Boston College.
The Blue Devils' secondary hasn’t really been tested much either, while NC State is getting healthier and should get Duke Scott back in the backfield.
I just don’t trust the Dukies to throw the ball consistently enough to create separation here.
Seven of NC State’s games have been decided by four points or less, so I expect this one to be tight too. But I liked what I saw from the Wolfpack's effort level last week with the new regime, and I think that matters.
And for what it’s worth, since 2005, NC State has been a cash machine as a home conference underdog of four or more points. It has gone 28-1 against the spread in that spot, covering by five points per game, which is the second-most profitable mark in the country. It's also 7-0 this decade and has won six straight outright.
Give me the Pack.
