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As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.
Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.
I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you're following along there for plays early in the week that may move.
Last week's card finished 4-4, with both coin-flips unfortunately going the other way. I've treaded water the past few weeks with every close result seemingly going the other way.
Those tend to even out, so hopefully some positive end game bounces are headed our way.
Looking ahead to this Saturday, this has the potential to be one of the best regular-season Saturdays we have seen in quite some time. So, it's only fitting I have a season-high 13 spots highlighted for Week 10. Let's have a day!
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 49-33-2 (59.8%)
- Overall: 272-211-5 (56.3%)
Time to dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 10.
College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | UConn +7.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Boston College +6.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Syracuse +2.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Missouri +3 |
  | 12 p.m. | Minnesota +6 |
  | 12:30 p.m. | NC State +4.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Ohio State -7 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Temple +7.5 |
  | 6 p.m. | Colorado State +18 |
  | 6:15 p.m. | Tennessee -6.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Notre Dame -5.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Ole Miss +3.5 |
  | 9:30 p.m. | Utah State +2.5 |
UConn +7.5 vs. North Carolina
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
As I've previously mentioned, every summer, I rank situational scheduling spots for the upcoming college football season. This one made it into my top 10. Sometimes they come to fruition. Other times they do not.
Fortunately, in this case (or unfortunately if it loses), UConn still fits the bill as one of the best situational spots on this weekend's card.
UNC is coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses against Syracuse followed by an all-out effort against Miami.
Prior to those two contests, the Heels pulled out two road victories in the final minutes against Pitt and Duke, which came after a hard-fought home loss vs. Notre Dame.
That's a brutal five-week stretch with no byes for a team that started the season across the pond.
Now, prior to hosting Louisville, the Heels head up I-95 to face UConn in a nonconference noon tilt. This screams flat spot.
I highly doubt they've been locked in all week in practice following that devastating loss to Miami, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're just a bit off from the opening kick.
In fairness, UNC has played a significantly tougher schedule than UConn. However, they do have a common opponent in Syracuse, which beat them both on the road in overtime by one.
UNC can't stop the rush (118th in Success rate allowed), so UConn should have no issues staying ahead of the chains with its underrated stable of running backs that include West Virginia transfer Cyncir Bowers and a pair of former MAC transfers in Kenji Christian and Trey Cornist.
That trio has rushed for over 1,100 yards while averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. Against a UNC defense that ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in negative play rate, UConn can stay on schedule to avoid known passing situations where sacks definitely will be a concern.
That will make life easier against a UNC defense that ranks outside the top 100 in third-down conversion rate allowed.
Quarterback Kalieb Osborne can also use his legs when needed, and he's been fantastic throwing downfield with 17 touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Among 88 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks on the season, Osborne ranks second in Big-Time Throw percentage at 8.0% to go along with one of the 10 lowest Turnover-Worthy Play rates, per PFF.
He's certainly not afraid to throw it downfield with the third-highest aDOT among that group. On throws 20-plus yards downfield, he has a ridiculous 17:1 BTT-to-TWP ratio, but he has also been efficient when throwing short, which he will need to do against a UNC defense that excels at limiting explosive plays.
The UConn defense isn't anything to write home about, but it can force UNC to methodically move the ball without making any mistakes.
Its defensive coordinator also spent the past five years on the Pittsburgh staff, so I'm sure he spent the week getting some intel from his former colleagues who already faced this Tar Heel offense a few weeks ago.
UConn can keep this close throughout, especially if UNC comes out flat in a tough spot. Let's just hope the Huskies don't have to settle for too many field-goal attempts, as their kicking situation is a bit shaky.
UConn vs. North Carolina Trend
Since 2005, UConn has gone 39-26-1 (60%) ATS as a home underdog. No team has been more profitable in that role over that span.
Over the past three seasons, the Huskies have faced three ACC opponents in East Hartford. They upset Duke and suffered losses by a combined four points against Wake Forest and Syracuse (earlier this year).
Pick: UConn +7.5 (Play to +7)
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Boston College +6.5 vs. Florida State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
Following its home loss to Clemson, Florida State fired head coach Mike Norvell along with others on the staff, which is now shorthanded on the defensive side of the ball.
While Norvell deserves some blame for FSU's fall from grace, I do think he still did a very nice job from a play-calling perspective. Most of Florida State's problems stemmed from roster construction, but that's a conversation for another day.
In regard to this specific game, I believe it's a net negative for the offense, which will now have a very inexperienced play-caller running the show.
Plus, the Seminoles will have to make do without a pair of their best offensive players moving forward in running back Ousmane Kromah and wide receiver Duce Robinson.
Kromah's absence (along with potentially backup Quintrevion Wisner) looms large against a BC defense that has fared better against the pass — although the Eagles have definitely benefited from a pair of weather games against SMU and Virginia Tech.
Even so, new defensive coordinator Ted Roof has done a tremendous job wth this group outside of last weekend's result.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels has played well of late, but he will certainly put the ball in harm's way and will no longer have his top back and target to rely on while also adjusting to a new play-caller.
On the other side of the ball, Florida State has all kinds of issues on defense. The Seminoles can't stop the run and allow way too many explosive passing plays.
Well, that's essentially the BC offense, which also saw stud tight end Kaelan Chudzinski make his season debut last week, so he could see an uptick in snaps.
BC is a run-first offense led by quarterback Mason McKenzie, who has two times as many carries as anybody else on the team. That could spell trouble for an FSU defense that can be susceptible to the quarterback run game.
BC ranks in the top 25 nationally in explosive rush rate and offensive line push, so it should have no issues controlling the time of possession throughout.
While McKenzie is far from the most efficient passer in the country, he should have opportunities to hit some big plays down the field after BC starts churning out yards on the ground against a beat-up FSU stop unit.
More importantly, does Florida State even show up here? The Seminoles just lost at home to Clemson following a heartbreaking loss at Miami. Now, after falling to 3-5 on the season, they head up to Chestnut Hill for a noon kick against lowly BC. I'm sure many on this staff and roster are already thinking about their next move.
Conversely, I expect Boston College to show up at home, looking to get the taste of last week's 47-2 defeat at Duke out of its mouth.
It's also an enormous game for the Eagles' bowl hopes, as a loss will pretty much end those chances with road games against Notre Dame and Miami still remaining. BC's only realistic shot at a bowl game is to beat Florida State and Syracuse at home.
Lastly, I have no issues fading a Florida State team that has incredibly lost 12 straight road games over the past three seasons. Across those 12 contests, it has gone 3-9 ATS (25%), failing to cover by 11.6 points per game.
BC should have a very good chance of pulling off the upset, but I'll happily take the points.
For what it's worth, I haven't bet this yet, as I'm waiting to see if a 7 ever flashes again in the market. If it never does, I'll still be betting the Eagles and would do so down to +6.
Boston College vs. Florida State Trend
Bill O'Brien has gone 5-2 ATS (71.4%) as a home conference underdog at BC, covering by over a field goal per game.
Pick: Boston College +6.5 (Play to +6)
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Syracuse +2.5 vs. Clemson
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
Clemson is coming off a misleading win at Florida State.
The Seminoles, which had numerous key injuries during the game, outgained the Tigers by 75 yards and finished with a +2 net yards per play edge. They just couldn't overcome a -4 turnover margin along with all three fourth-down attempts going Clemson's way.
This Tigers team still has major flaws, and now they're dealing with numerous key injuries on the offensive side of the ball.
On Saturday, Clemson will be without starting running back Gideon Davidson, along with two starters on the interior offensive line, including center Harris Sewell, who has played well this season.
That's obviously less than ideal, especially since both replacements have not looked great in limited action.
Dabo Swinney's bunch might also be missing Tyler Brown, who has arguably been Clemson's best receiver over the past month.
That will make one of the worst passing attacks at the Power 4 level (135th EPA Per Pass) even easier to defend for a Syracuse secondary that has excelled in coverage due to an outstanding group of cornerbacks.
The way to attack this Syracuse defense is on the ground, but I'm not sure Clemson has the chops to get that done without its most productive back and a reshuffled interior offensive line.
Syracuse hasn't been great offensively, but I think its numbers are a bit deflated due to all of the quarterback injuries it has dealt with. At one point, the Orange were down to their fourth-string quarterback at Virginia.
Well, now Steve Angeli is back, and he has finally looked healthy over the past two weeks after being clearly still hampered by last year's injury earlier in the season.
He's listed as questionable on the availability report, which is certainly noteworthy since both QB2 and QB3 are out with injuries. However, I expect him to be a full go, considering he finished last week's game (with a rushing touchdown) and has been listed as questionable ahead of each of the past two games he has started.
After adjusting for injuries and the matchup, I just don't have much at all separating these teams, so I'll gladly take the points on a neutral field.
Ideally, I can grab a 3 at some point, as this is a Cuse squad that has seen five of its seven games vs. FBS foes decided by three points or less.
Like UConn, let's hope Syracuse doesn't have to settle for too many field-goal attempts, as its kicking situation is also pretty dicey.
Syracuse vs. Clemson Trend
Syracuse head coach Fran Brown is 0-5-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. FBS competition, but 5-3 against the closing number as an underdog.
Pick: Syracuse +2.5
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Missouri +3 vs. Texas
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Texas could certainly cover this spread, but I don't know how anybody can trust this Longhorns offense enough to lay points on the road (where they have really struggled in recent seasons) against a competent club.
It's just so hard for the Longhorns to build margin with an offense that has the highest three-and-out rate in the SEC, which is why you could argue Texas could easily have three or four losses already on the season.
Arch Manning continues to struggle (13:13 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio in 2026) in front of an underachieving offensive line that won't have star left tackle Trevor Goosby for the rest of the season.
That's an enormous loss in general, but especially against this now-healthy Missouri edge rush that should get home here without blitzing, which Missouri rarely does.
You can expect a number of key drive-killing sacks for an offense that takes way too many. That may also lead to some critical fumbles and potential interceptions against Missouri's zone-heavy defense.
After all, the Texas offense ranks 136th in Havoc allowed, while Missouri's defense ranks in the top 15 nationally in Havoc created.
Plus, Goosby isn't the only key loss on offense. Texas will be without star running back Hollywood Smothers once again, while starting receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman are listed as questionable. That's a significant injury list, to say the least.
Texas' playoff hopes are still alive due to its defense, which has been excellent all season.
However, it's worth noting it did benefit from facing Mississippi State without Kamario Taylor and Tennessee when the Vols were still trotting out Faizon Brandon, who was a deer in the headlights in the pocket.
The Longhorns might also be very shorthanded on that side of the ball. We still don't know if Colin Simmons will suit up or how effective he will be if he does give it a go.
Additionally, Texas could be without a couple of starters in the secondary, which would certainly make life easier for Mizzou quarterback Austin Simmons.
The Missouri offense has been very hit-or-miss on a weekly basis, as Simmons is incredibly streaky. There's a reason the Tigers have a negative expected Success Rate after adjusting for opponent. Who knows if we will get the good or bad Simmons?
If we get the good version, Missouri should win this game. But even if we get the bad version, Missouri can still win a low-scoring affair, as I just don't have much faith in the Texas offense.
There's also the potential for star running back Ahmad Hardy to provide a boost to the ground game after he made his season debut last week at Arkansas.
I would try to get the 3 if you decide to back Missouri, as this one could end up being a low-scoring rock fight where every point will matter even more. It's no surprise that half of Texas' games have ended with a margin of three or fewer points this season.
Missouri vs. Texas Trend
Eli Drinkwitz has gone 11-4-1 ATS (73.3%) as a home 'dog, covering by eight points per game.
Meanwhile, Texas has gone 1-7 ATS in its past eight true road games. During his tenure in Austin, Steve Sarkisian has covered in just 36% of away games.
Pick: Missouri +3 or Better
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Minnesota +6 vs. UCLA
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
UCLA will make the trip to Minneapolis for a noon ET kick and look to keep its perfect season going.
Not only are the Bruins one of three remaining undefeated teams in college football (along with Utah and Miami), but they are the only team in the country that has covered every game.
Head coach Bob Chesney has done a tremendous job in his first season in Los Angeles, but his team has certainly benefited from a laughable schedule to date.
Per Sagarin, UCLA has played the 64th-most difficult schedule to date, while Minnesota ranks 27th in that department. However, it's actually been a much easier path than the raw numbers may suggest for the Bruins.
In eight games, they've only faced two full-time starting quarterbacks who have not lost their job at any point this season. And those were against two of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Purdue (which put up 38) and Maryland.
Take a look at the other quarterbacks they have faced:
- Michigan State's third-string QB
- Nevada's third-string QB
- Oregon's second- and third-string QBs
- Wisconsin's QB who just got benched
- SDSU's QB who has lost his job
- Cal's QB who has lost and regained his job in the first game of the season when the Bears had a guy calling plays for the first time at a level above 12U ball (and has since been stripped of his duties)
That's a simply ridiculous list, so I'd certainly take UCLA's elite defensive metrics with a grain of salt.
And while Minnesota's offense has been brutal for most of the season, the Gophers have faced a number of elite defenses. It likely won't have much success running the ball, so the onus will fall on Drake Lindsey to put together a few drives with his arm.
And I want to emphasize the word "few" since it probably won't take much to cover this number in a game with a total in the 30s as of this moment.
That obviously makes the points even more valuable. I wouldn't be surprised if this plays out like some of Minnesota's recent games in a battle of two defenses that rank in the top 10 nationally in third-down conversion rate allowed.
UCLA's ground game has been downright dominant this season with Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods leading the way.
However, with quarterback Nico Iamaleava out for the season, defenses can now key on the backs without the threat of any quarterback run game, especially since UCLA has almost no aerial attack to speak of with new quarterback Ty Dieffenbach and an underwhelming group of pass-catchers.
Since Dieffenbach took over, UCLA (which ranks 115th in Passing Success Rate) has been miserable in known passing situations on third downs.
He has also struggled mightily when under pressure, which will likely happen frequently in this particular matchup, as Minnesota's edge rushers have an enormous advantage over UCLA's tackles, who can really struggle in pass protection.
Don't be surprised if you see a number of critical holding calls on those UCLA tackles. PJ Fleck won't let the officials hear the end of it if they start missing them like they did vs. Wisconsin.
Not only has UCLA benefited from a comical schedule of opponents, but the Bruins have also been one of the most fortunate teams in the country when it comes to turnovers.
In fact, UCLA is tied with Kentucky for the best average turnover margin (+1.9) per game. Regression could be coming for Chesney's crew.
Lastly, Minnesota will have a sizable special teams edge, which could matter even more in a game where points should come at a premium. Minnesota beat Iowa due to its special teams (you don't say that often) and almost pulled off a monumental upset over Indiana due to that group.
Through nine weeks, I have the Gophers ranked in the top three nationally in both field-goal kicking and punting efficiency. Field position and made field goals could swing this contest, and the Gophers have an advantage in both categories.
One of the most underrated offseason moves in the Big Ten was done by PJ Fleck by bringing in New Mexico's special teams coordinator and stud kicker. They have both been incredible, and it's no coincidence that New Mexico's special teams have dropped precipitously in efficiency in 2026.
This is a classic Fleck spot. You could argue that Minnesota may be a bit flat after back-to-back all-out efforts against Iowa and Indiana, but I don't expect energy or motivation to be an issue against an undefeated top-10 team coming into their house.
And while Bob Chesney's bunch did travel very well for a noon ET kick at Maryland earlier this season (Chesney apparently consulted with Sean McVay on best practices for long travel), this is still too many points for the home team with the much better quarterback in what should be a rock fight.
Minnesota vs. UCLA Trend
During his time at Minnesota, head coach PJ Fleck has gone 10-3-1 ATS (76.9%) as a home underdog of more than a field goal, covering by a whopping eight points per game on average. That includes a pair of outright upsets earlier this season against Iowa and Michigan.
Pick: Minnesota +6 (Play to +4.5)
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NC State +4.5 vs. Duke
12:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
This looks like a prime opportunity to sell high on Duke following its 47-2 demolition of Boston College.
It also doesn't hurt that Duke has a date with Miami on deck, so maybe the Blue Devils get caught peeking ahead a bit against an opponent that's looking for revenge following three consecutive losses in this series.
Manny Diaz deserves a ton of credit for what he has done with this team after quarterback Darian Mensah transferred to Miami in the offseason.
The defense is definitely more buttoned up following a disappointing 2025 campaign, and Nate Sheppard is one of the best all-around backs in the country.
However, I just can't get to this number (I'm below a field goal) on a Duke team that has played a hilariously easy ACC slate to date:
- Stanford
- Georgia Tech (lost)
- UNC (lost)
- Virginia
- Boston College
While NC State also hasn't played an overly difficult schedule, it has at least faced Wake Forest and Louisville — arguably the second- and third-best teams in the league.
The Wolfpack had one of their best performances of the season last week following the firing of head coach Dave Doeren. Maybe it was just a one-week bump (which we see sometimes), but I think they'll show up here against their in-state rival.
Plus, the Pack should be a bit healthier this week. Keep in mind this team has dealt with an abundance of injuries, which have definitely impacted their on-field performance. Getting RB Duke Watson back would provide a welcome boost to the offense.
The NC State defense still has major deficiencies, but it has been a bit stronger against the run. You want to throw on this defense, and I just don't trust quarterback Walter Eget to do so consistently.
And while the Duke defense has played well to date, it hasn't really faced many viable passing attacks. CJ Bailey will definitely be a step up in class for this Blue Devil secondary.
Lastly, Duke leads all FBS teams with an absurd fumble recovery rate north of 90%. That's simply not sustainable, so I wouldn't be surprised if a few fumble bounces went NC State's way.
NC State vs. Duke Trend
Since 2005, as a home conference underdog of four-plus points, NC State has gone 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%), covering by five points per game. Only Buffalo has been more profitable in that role over that span. The Wolfpack have gone 7-0 ATS this decade in this scenario with six straight outright upsets.
Pick: NC State +4.5 (Play to +4)
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Ohio State -7 vs. Oregon
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
Coming into the season, this looked like one of the best games of the year on paper. However, this game has lost a lot of its shine in what will now be a battle of backup quarterbacks, with both teams losing their star quarterbacks to a season-ending injury.
I'm not sure anybody would have predicted that the Buckeyes and Ducks could potentially both have three losses coming out of Week 10.
Ohio State is clearly not the same team without starting quarterback Julian Sayin. Luke Fahey looked very limited in his first career start last Saturday in a loss at USC.
However, I believe the market has downgraded the Buckeyes too harshly for that performance. I obviously downgraded Ohio State but still project the Buckeyes as a favorite of slightly more than 10 points in this game.
Keep in mind, they did actually outgain the Trojans by nearly 130 yards (464-338).
While I don't expect Fahey to light the world on fire, he should look more comfortable in his second career start, especially in the friendly confines of the Horseshoe.
It also helps to have one of the best wide receivers in the history of college football to lean on in Jeremiah Smith.
I have faith he can put together a couple of scoring drives, which might be all it takes to cover this number since the real mismatch will come on the other side of the ball.
To his credit, Dylan Raiola played well last week vs. Northwestern, but he has certainly looked lost at times following Moore's injury. Against UCLA and Nebraska, he finished a combined 17-of-37 for 102 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions with a road loss at Illinois sandwiched in between those two performances.
This will obviously present a much tougher test for the former Nebraska QB, especially with Ohio State freshman phenom Jay Timmons expected back in the lineup after missing last week's contest.
While the Buckeyes struggle to generate a consistent pass rush, they still rank second in the country in Passing Success Rate allowed. You can expect plenty of man coverage on the back end, which could spell doom for Raiola, who has fared much better against zone in his career with a 20% higher completion percentage.
I'm anticipating a number of mistakes from Raiola in obvious passing situations, which he should find himself in plenty, considering Oregon simply can't run the ball with any regularity behind a struggling offensive line.
On the season, the Ducks rank outside the top 100 in both Rushing EPA and Success Rate and are now dealing with injuries in the backfield.
Plus, this Ohio State staff should benefit from seeing some of the changes Oregon implemented with a new play-caller last week.
This is simply too much of an adjustment following last week's loss. And keep in mind Oregon may heave really benefited from an Aidan Chiles injury in its comeback win over Northwestern. Chiles shredded in the 1H (17/24 214 yards) before falling apart in the 2H (5/14 67 yards).
Ohio State vs. Oregon Trend
Ryan Day has gone 21-9-1 ATS as a home favorite in Columbus, covering by nearly a field goal per game on average.
Pick: Ohio State -7 (Play to -8.5)
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Temple +7.5 at Navy
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Navy is pretty immune to falling prey to situational spots, but the Mids find themselves in a fairly tricky spot on Saturday in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
This will mark their seventh straight game without a bye, with the previous three coming against UTSA, North Texas and Notre Dame. That's an exhausting stretch.
On the other side, Temple had its bye two weeks ago and continues to get healthier — although losing stud tight end Peter Clarke to injury last week could hurt moving forward.
Despite that loss, the Temple offense, which has been excellent on the ground (top-15 EPA), should find plenty of explosives through the air (where it ranks top-30 nationally) against a Navy defense that ranks 136th nationally in that department.
While Temple's defense has a plethora of issues, the Owls did look more connected on the back end last week following widespread staff changes during the bye week.
The Owls struggle to defend both the run and pass but have been a bit better overall against the run, which is obviously most important against Navy's offense.
I'm not counting on Temple shutting down quarterback Jackson Gutierrez and the Navy offense, but it doesn't hurt that it already faced Army earlier this season in a game it dominated statistically.
Even if they can't generate many stops, the Owls have enough favorable matchups when on offense to match Navy score-for-score in a game that might not have many possessions in a battle of two slow-paced squads.
Temple burned me last week in a close loss but was done in by a couple of tough-luck turnovers, including one interception where the ball was tipped into a defender's hands and another when the officials picked up a clear pass interference flag for some reason.
That performance didn't scare me off going back to the well with head coach K.C. Keeler, who has historically fared very well in the underdog role.
Temple vs. Navy Trend
Since 2005, Navy has gone just 14-24 ATS (36.8%) as a home favorite of more than a touchdown against FBS foes, including 0-4 last season. Meanwhile, Temple head coach KC Keeler has gone 16-8 ATS (66.7%) as a 'dog of more than a touchdown vs. FBS competition. That includes a one-point loss vs. Navy last season as a nine-point pup.
Pick: Temple +7.5 (Play to +7)
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Colorado State +18 vs. Boise State
6 p.m. ET ⋅ USA
This looks like a potential major flat spot for the Broncos, who are coming off an insane victory over Texas State with a highly anticipated matchup with Oregon State looming on deck.
I also don't think starting quarterback Maddux Madsen will end up playing after he was seen on crutches at the end of last week's game. Running back Sire Gaines will also miss this contest with an injury, which definitely hurts Boise's rushing attack.
Maybe it won't matter against Colorado State, which arguably has the worst defense in the country. The Rams are allowing a horrific 8.0 yards per play, which ranks dead last in the country.
So, maybe Boise State puts up a crooked number even with some key pieces missing on offense. That wouldn't shock me in the least. However, even if Colorado State can't get any stops, its electric offense can score enough to still stay within this number.
Starting quarterback Hauss Hejny recently returned from injury, and he has been much more productive than K'Saan Farrar, who started three games when Hejny sat with an injury.
Not only does Hejny provide a much more formidable rushing element to the offense (6.9 yards per carry to Farrar's 3.1), but he's also been the clearly better passer.
On the season, Hejny has an 8% higher completion rate (69% vs. 61%) with a significantly higher yards-per-attempt figure (8.5 vs. 6.5).
Additionally, the Rams recently saw the return of top wideout RJ Vick, who missed two games due to injury before returning last week. They also could benefit from the return of standout running back Mel Brown this week.
Brown ranks third in the country with an 8.7 yards-per-carry average and has the second-highest yards-after-contact average at 5.9. He's also an electric kick returner.
Boise State is the favorite to make the College Football Playoff as the G6 representative, but not enough are talking about the issues the Broncos have on defense, where they struggle to tackle and allow far too many explosive plays.
There will be plenty of opportunities for this now-healthy Colorado State offense to put up points, and the backdoor should be wide open if needed.
Colorado State vs. Boise State Trend
Boise State has historically fared well as a larger road favorite. The Broncos have gone 18-8-2 ATS (69.2%) as chalk of more than 17 points since 2005 vs. FBS competition, covering by nearly a touchdown per game on average.
Pick: Colorado State +18 (Play to +17)
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Tennessee -6.5 vs. Kentucky
6:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Look, I'm a Kentucky fan who lives in Lexington, but I'm a bettor first.
And while I'm hoping the 'Cats make the College Football Playoff for the city of Lexington and all of my friends and family, I can't ignore the fact that Kentucky sits atop my list of luckiest teams in the country to date.
There's a reason I'd have the Wildcats as an underdog on a neutral field against, say, Nebraska in my power ratings heading into Week 10.
And if you don't believe me, take a look at other sources such as SP+, which has the Wildcats ranked 34th nationally. Meanwhile, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody who doesn't have Tennessee power-rated as one of the top-15 teams in the country.
I have the Vols right on the cusp of breaking into the top 10.
Keep in mind some of their offensive numbers include starts by Faizon Brandon, who was an absolute disaster in the pocket. Fellow freshman George MacIntyre took over as the starter in early October and has been much more efficient.
He does have a hilariously low aDOT, as Tennessee's downfield passing attack is still mainly nonexistent, but he's getting rid of the ball quickly (2.68 seconds compared to Brandon's 3.3) and avoiding the catastrophic sacks that Brandon (33% pressure-to-sack ratio compared to MacIntyre's 21%) took on a regular basis.
While I'm not as low as SP+ on Kentucky, I still project the Vols as favorites of over a touchdown in a game that deserves a juiced-up home-field advantage number at Neyland Stadium in prime time.
There's also a chance that Tennessee benefits more from the bye week than Kentucky, considering the Vols made an in-season change at quarterback.
This will still be a run-first offense that leans on star back DeSean Bishop (and Daune Morris), which should work against a Kentucky defense that can be had on the ground. But there's a real possibility the passing attack has more juice this weekend.
Pictured: Tennessee RB DeSean Bishop.
Getting back to the Kentucky luck factor, let's take a look at its results during its five-game SEC winning streak since getting blown out in the second half vs. Alabama.
- Up 21-17 late in the third quarter vs. Vanderbilt, then scored 13 points on three short fields.
- Came back in the fourth quarter to tie LSU before winning on a two-point conversion in OT.
- Did the same thing vs. South Carolina in a game where all four fourth downs and both key fumbles fell into their hands.
- Outgained 346-230 at Oklahoma in a game they trailed, 13-7, in the fourth quarter before Mateer had his hand hit on an interception, which led to a short-field touchdown to take the lead before the Cats added a pick-six late to win by eight.
- Beat Texas A&M by 10 in a game that was tied at the half. The Aggies did finish with more yards, but failed on three fourth-down conversions and had a -3 turnover margin.
If you change just two or three plays, Kentucky has three or four losses on the season.
Head coach Will Stein deserves all of the credit in the world for what he has done in his first season in the bluegrass. I'd vote for him as the Coach of the Year if the season ended today, but there's no denying that the 'Cats have enjoyed plenty of good fortune.
During this five-game winning streak in league play, they have an absurd +12 turnover margin thanks to 12 takeaways and no giveaways. UK now leads the country with an unsustainable +1.9 turnover margin average per game.
They've also enjoyed some significant positive fourth-down variance.
Stein does scare me coming out of the bye week, especially during the scripted portion of this game.
However, this Tennessee defensive staff has plenty of familiarity with Stein, and this will be the toughest test of the season for quarterback Kenny Minchey, whose play has been pretty underwhelming.
Yes, he hasn't turned the ball over and does operate the offense well. However, despite a 14:1 TD-to-INT ratio, he only has two Big-Time Throws to six Turnover-Worthy Plays on the season, per PFF.
The 'Cats will likely hit some explosive runs here and there behind a very underrated offensive line, but it's hard for me to envision them sustaining many drives against this dominant Tennessee defense.
On third downs in known passing situations (where Kentucky ranks outside the top 100), the Tennessee front (which generates pressure at an elite level) should feast on Minchey, who will likely eat plenty of drive-killing sacks in this matchup.
Lastly, Tennessee will have a major special teams edge, which could swing field position and a made field goal or two in its direction.
Maybe Kentucky continues to get every bounce, and it pulls off another stunner. It wouldn't be the most shocking result of the weekend, but there's probably a greater likelihood they finally lose the turnover battle given the matchup.
The Tennessee ground game can also keep the chains moving on offense consistently enough to eventually pull away to win this game by 10-plus.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Trend
In top-15 matchups, home favorites of more than six points have covered at a 57% rate since 2005 with an average cover margin of 2.5 points.
Pick: Tennessee -6.5 or Better
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Notre Dame -5.5 vs. Miami
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
This is another spot I've had circled since last year's final College Football Playoff reveal show when the committee jumped Miami over Notre Dame.
I'm sure the Irish have also had this game marked since that day and will be hungry for revenge from last season's opening week loss at Miami in CJ Carr's first career start (in a game that could've gone either way).
This is essentially a playoff game for Notre Dame, which it has probably known for quite some time, so I'd expect the kitchen sink from the Irish (similar to what we saw from BYU against ND).
It wouldn't shock me if Notre Dame has been preparing for this game for months. A loss, and it's potentially out for a second straight season, which would be hard to imagine for a team I have power-rated in the top two in both years.
I originally projected this spread above a touchdown when accounting for the matchup and spot. And that was prior to star wide receiver Malachi Toney getting announced out with an ankle injury. Now, I'm closer to 10.
While it's difficult to nail down an exact number, I'd argue Toney is worth close to 2.5 points when you consider his production and the gravity he has on opposing defenses, which opens up everything else for the offense.
He's also a threat in the running game and puts the fear of God in opposing punters.
Toney averages 4.3 yards per route run, which leads the country. And he has absolutely shredded man coverage (which ND uses at a high clip) with an absurd 7.6 yards per route run. He has been targeted 83 times (50 more than everybody else on the team) and never drops anything.
To illustrate his impact another way, let's look at the on/off splits. It's not a huge sample size, but on drop backs with Mensah and Toney on the field together, Miami averages an asburd 10.2 yards per play. Conversely, on 34 drop backs with Mensah on the field without Toney, that number plummets to 5.6 (and Mensah's QBR falls from 95 to 42).
It would've been must-see TV to watch Toney battle star cornerback Leonard Moore, who I believe would've shadowed him, but now life becomes much easier for the star-studded Irish secondary.
Moore can now essentially erase Cooper Barkate, which will put added stress on others to step up. The trickle-down effect is significant.
It's worth noting that Notre Dame has a handful of key injuries on defense. I don't worry about any on the back end, but the defensive line could be compromised.
I'm sure that's what Mario Cristobal wants to test early and often, especially in a hostile environment without Toney.
However, it's not like Miami has had a completely dominant rushing attack so far in 2026. Don't get me wrong, the Hurricanes have been very good in that department, but I wouldn't put them in the elite category.
And it's not like this offensive line has faced a gauntlet of opposing defensive fronts. Can Miami sustain drives without Toney and finish them off with touchdowns? I have my doubts, and this ND defense is probably owed some positive regression in the red zone.
Now, the other side of the ball is where Notre Dame should really have an advantage against a Miami defense that has major issues in coverage (103rd in Passing Success Rate allowed).
The Hurricanes just made Billy Edwards Jr. (28-of-34, 344 yards, four TDs, 0 INTs) look like prime Tom Brady and even somehow allowed Tait Reynolds to throw for nearly 300 yards.
After that close loss to Miami, UNC head coach Bill Belichick noted that Miami ran the same thing it had been running all season with no adjustments.
Maybe that forces defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman's hand into making some alterations, but I doubt he can solve all of the coverage issues in just one week.
The Canes especially struggle to defend the middle of the field, which is not ideal against CJ Carr, who's one of the nation's most willing and efficient passers in that range.
Part of Miami's defensive woes have stemmed from injuries in the secondary, which may explain some of the lack of variation in looks Hetherman has offered on the back end.
The Canes also don't have the luxury of Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor wreaking havoc off the edge on every passing play, which made life easier for the entire secondary in 2025.
It's a similar story in Texas Tech following all of its own NFL departures up front. Miami also clearly misses Jakobe Thomas and Keionte Scott, who were Miami's best defensive backs last season.
It's just hard for me to envision Miami getting many stops after what I've seen UNC and Florida State do to this unit. And it's also worth mentioning that Miami has benefited from an 88% fumble recovery percentage (third-highest in the country) and a very biased ACC whistle in a number of games.
If a few bounces and calls actually go Notre Dame's way, the Irish should win this by double digits.
Notre Dame vs. Miami Trend
Over the past 10 seasons, including the postseason, Notre Dame has gone 27-8 ATS (77.1%) as a single-digit favorite, covering by an amazing nine points per game on average. The Irish are by far the most profitable team in that role over that period.
Pick: Notre Dame -5.5 (Play to -7.5)
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Ole Miss +3.5 vs. Georgia
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
There's no truly elite team in college football in 2026. I personally love that, as it should make for a highly entertaining College Football Playoff.
And that will likely be the norm moving forward in this new portal and NIL era that has experienced more parity at the top and a wider disparity between P4 and G6.
So, why am I bringing that up for this game? Well, there's not a team in the country I wouldn't take Ole Miss against at home catching over a field goal.
You're going to give me the best college football quarterback in the country for my money with the hook in his own stadium? Sign me up to go to battle with Trinidad Chambliss in a spot where the home-field advantage will be juiced up to the extreme.
I know running back Kewan Lacy won't suit up, but he hasn't really been himself all season, and the Rebels may have found something with freshman running back Shekai Mills-Knight in addition to freshman wideout Caleb Cunningham.
I'm also expecting Trinidad (who ran more last week) to use his legs more on Saturday night, which could give Georgia's defense some issues, as we saw against Byrum Brown when Auburn pulled off a stunning upset in Athens.
I also think that the Ole Miss tempo could give a Bulldog defense that likes to rotate up front some issues.
I know Georgia's pressure numbers have improved this season after it was a glaring weakness in 2025, but Chambliss is as immune to pressure as any quarterback in the nation.
Plus, are we really sure Georgia has solved those issues? Just take a look at the offensive lines it has faced this season:
- Tennessee State
- Western Kentucky
- Oklahoma
- Arkansas
- Vanderbilt
- Auburn
- Alabama
- Florida
Color me skeptical.
The Ole Miss defense does have some major areas of weakness, especially on the back end in coverage, where the Rebels allow far too many explosive passing plays. However, this Georgia downfield aerial attack doesn't really scare me as currently constructed.
And Gunner Stockton isn't in great form at the moment for whatever reason.
For what it's worth, I am assuming Keaton Thomas and Kam Franklin (both listed as questionable) will suit up. Those are two critical pieces for the Ole Miss run defense, which ranks in the top 30 in yards before contact allowed and will be tested by Kirby Smart.
Look, I have Georgia power-rated as the second-best team in the country and would pick the Dawgs and Notre Dame as my national title game participants if forced to choose at this very second.
But I definitely don't have a 7.5-point gap between these two teams on a neutral field, which is what it would require for me to get to this number.
And would the whole narrative around Georgia be different if it didn't get every single possible bounce (and call) in a 3-point win at Alabama? Yes, it blew out Oklahoma and Florida, but both of those offenses completely self-destructed, as we've seen them do multiple times this season.
And none of their other wins are anything to write home about with a bad home loss vs. Auburn mixed in there.
Ole Miss also has one of the best special teams units in the country, which is important in a game like this. But most important of all, it has Trinidad at home with the hook.
Hotty Toddy!
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Trend
Over the past four seasons, Ole Miss has gone 26-1 SU at home with a sparkling 17-9-1 ATS (65.4%) mark, covering by 3.5 points per game. That includes a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record vs. ranked teams (all within the top-15) with a ridiculous 13.5-point average cover margin.
Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 or Better
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Utah State +2.5 vs. Fresno State
9:30 p.m. ET ⋅ USA
We need to start talking about the Utah State defense. Is there a chance this ends up being the second-best G6 defense behind New Mexico? It's certainly possible.
Maybe it shouldn't come as a surprise that known defensive guru Bronco Mendenhall has completely turned around this Aggie defense since arriving in Logan, but what they've done over the past two weeks has been nothing short of incredible.
In back-to-back games, Utah State has completely shut down two of the most explosive G6 offenses in Colorado State and Texas State, holding both to under 20 points and 265 total yards of offense.
There are simply no holes on this defense at the moment, which could spell trouble for a limited Fresno State offense.
It's still a slog for the Utah State offense, but the Aggies definitely have more rushing and passing upside with McCae Hillstead now under center.
Hillstead's legs could be key against a Fresno defense that can be structurally susceptible to the quarterback run game. That's basically how Utah State beat the Bulldogs last season.
This is also a tough spot for Fresno State following an upset win over ATS machine Oregon State.
The defensive game plan from Nick Benedetto was brilliant, but the Bulldogs still allowed 450 total yards. They were certainly helped by three failed Beaver fourth-down attempts and a pair of turnovers.
Fresno's defense won't make life easy for Utah State's anemic offense in what should be a very low-scoring affair, but it can be had a bit on the ground, which is where the Aggies will focus most of their efforts with some occasional deep shots mixed in.
That's the exact formula required to move the ball on the Bulldogs, who will allow short, successful runs and the periodic explosive passing play.
And, ultimately, I actually trust the Utah State defense (that doesn't allow anything deep) more at the moment to get a few more critical stops.
You might not know it based on their respective records, but the Aggies actually have the superior net yards per play margin despite playing the more difficult schedule.
I just don't think the market has fully adjusted yet to how dominant the Utah State defense is playing at the moment, nor the higher upside of the offense with Hillstead back under center.
I'm waiting to see if a 3 pops in market before locking this in but would be comfortable backing Bronco's bunch at the current price of +2.5.
Utah State vs. Fresno State Trend
Over the past five seasons, Utah State has gone 14-3 ATS (82.4%) in home conference games, covering by almost eight points per game on average. Only Hawaii has been more profitable in that role over that span.
Pick: Utah State +2.5 (Play to +2)
