The No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones take on the No. 17Kansas State Wildcats in Dublin, Ireland, for the Aer Lingus College Football Classic at Croke Park. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kansas State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155, while Iowa State comes in at +130 to pull off the upset. The total is set at 49.5 points.
The Cyclones pulled off a 29-21 win over the Wildcats in Ames a season ago. Now, Kansas State is looking for revenge in a very different setting to kick off the season.
Here are my Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 23, 2025.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Picks
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State Pick: 1H Over 24.5 or Better
My Kansas State vs. Iowa State best bet is on the first-half Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Kansas State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +136 |
| K State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -162 |
Iowa State vs Kansas State: Need To Know
Why Iowa State Can Win
The loss of two explosive wide receivers is a blow to the Iowa State offense.
However, Matt Campbell should be able to return to his old identity.
The Cyclones used 12 and 13 personnel 49.6% of the time in quarterback Rocco Becht's elite freshman season. That mark dropped to 37.3% last year as they ventured away from multiple-tight-end sets to utilize the outside weapons in the receiving core.
With Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle expected to be on the field, third tight end Cooper Alexander will assist in Iowa State's renewed focus on the rushing attack.
Carson Hansen and Abu Sama bring a wealth of experience to the Iowa State rushing attack. Hanson hit the end zone 13 times last season, creating 16 explosive runs with an average of 3.2 yards after first contact.
The bigger question comes around Sama as the backup, generating a massive 6.6 yards after first contact on 84 rushing attempts in 2023.
The one thing to watch for Iowa State is who starts at center, as three different players were listed in the latest depth chart.
Iowa State will field a new defensive line in the 3-3-5, as the team recorded just 17 sacks a season ago.
Tamatoa McDonough brings 40 pressures and 27 quarterback hurries from the edge, while the linebacker room is crowded with players who were injured in 2024.
Caleb Bacon will be back as a starter after posting one of the highest rush defense grades at middle linebacker in 2023.
Why Kansas State Can Win
Kansas State has not covered in the "Farmageddon" series in five years, but mistakes led to a misleading loss in 2024.
Quarterback Avery Johnson opened the game with a crucial fumble, preceding a fumble from a catch made by Keagan Johnson.
With missed field goals and intentional grounding safeties, the Wildcats had a forgettable day against Iowa State in a 29-21 loss.
I suspect that Johnson could create highlights with his legs against Iowa State's new defensive front. The Cyclones finished 120th nationally in PFF's Tackling grades last season and 94th in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
Running backs Dylan Edwards and Joe Jackson round out a ground attack that uses heavy inside zone and power schemes.
Slot Jayce Brown returns as the top target from a season ago, generating an explosive 2.3 yards per route run with a 14.3-yard average depth of target.
The nickel defense could field one of the best fronts in the Big 12, with Tobi Osunsanmi and Cody Stufflebean providing pressure. Linebacker Austin Romaine returns after leading the team with 96 tackles and an additional 5.5 tackles for loss last season.
Kansas State ranked 15th nationally in Defensive Line Yards last season, indicating that the Wildcats could dominate the trenches against opposing offensive lines.
The biggest question for Kansas State's defense is in the secondary, where the only proven player is All-Big 12 honorable mention safety VJ Payne.
Iowa State vs Kansas State Best Bets For Week 0 In Ireland
There are avenues for both teams to move the ball.
Kansas State has question marks in the secondary, an area Rocco Becht might be forced to target if the Wildcats' defense shuts down the Cyclones' rush attack.
Meanwhile, Iowa State is sure to use the three-tight-end package with pre-snap motion and misdirection. The Cyclones could beat Kansas State at the second level through the short passing game.
The Wildcats' offensive line should control the line of scrimmage against the Cyclones' new three-man front, meaning Edwards and Johnson should generate plenty of quality drives and scoring attempts.
These two teams have played in barn burners recently, combining for 60-plus points in the past two head-to-head matchups.
Aviva Stadium is also known for higher scoring first halves during College Football Week 0 kickoffs. Dating back to 2022, the Air Lingus College Football Classic has seen at least 28 points scored in the first half.
The combination of fresh defenses with missed tackle assignments against offensive plays that have been scripted all summer has created explosive plays for teams such as Northwestern, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.
Look for scoring to start early, as Mother Nature may have a few rain showers to help in destabilizing defensive players on a slick track.
Kansas State will control the line of scrimmage on offense, while Becht will find multiple ways to attack a subpar Wildcats secondary.
Pick: 1H Over 24.5 or Better
Iowa State vs Kansas State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, Where to Watch Live
- 12 p.m. ET
- ESPN
- Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland
