NCAAF Odds, Picks for James Madison vs Utah State

This week is all about conference play starting. But James Madison and Utah State still have one last nonconference tilt to play against each other.

The Dukes look good in the early going, even upsetting Virginia in Week 2, 36-35.

Meanwhile, Utah State looks like a disaster. The cupboard is bare for Blake Anderson, and his squad has started off the season with a 1-2 record with its only win coming over Idaho State.

I’ll continue fading this bare cupboard until the wheels fall completely off.

Coaching continuity is so rare in college football. So, when James Madison returned its head coach and both coordinators after winning eight games in their FBS debut season, I was instantly intrigued by the Dukes’ outlook.

At the minimum, we know the defense is good. JMU boasted the Sun Belt’s top defense last season, and it returned seven starters from that squad for this year, including its top three tacklers. The Dukes made some savvy portal moves, and the unit looked great on paper.

So far, they’ve been exactly what we expected.

Nobody can run on the Dukes, who rank second nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed and ninth in EPA per Rush Allowed. Jalen Green has made huge strides as an edge rusher and ranks 12th among qualified edges in PFF’s pressure grades with 11 pressures, seven hurries and three sacks.

While the Dukes continue to stuff opposing teams and prevent successful plays, they continue to allow chunk aerial plays. They were dead last nationally in explosiveness allowed last year and rank 125th in that stat through three weeks.

Meanwhile, the offense is still trying to find an identity, especially after the loss of quarterback Todd Centielo.

Jordan McCloud has been solid under center, taking care of the ball (zero picks, two turnover-worthy plays) while posting four touchdown passes on six big-time throws. His adjusted completion rate sits over 70%, but his yards per attempt dropped significantly against Virginia and Troy after dominating Bucknell.

It looks like James Madison will continue to ground and pound. It's calling run 54% of the time in 2023 after rushing on 58% of plays in 2022.

That’s fine. The Dukes boast a stacked offensive line that returned five starters from last season, including All-Sun Belt right tackle Nick Kidwell. Top back Kaelon Black is averaging over six yards per carry behind the line, a welcome increase from the 4.8 he posted last season.

Kidwell forced five missed tackles against Troy last week, recording 78 yards and 5.3 yards after contact per attempt. Troy always has a solid defense, so those are encouraging numbers.

Additionally, this offense flashed high potential against Virginia. The Dukes finished with .20 EPA per play (80th percentile) and a 48% Success Rate (81st percentile). And most of that production came from the passing game, with McCloud racking up 224 passing yards and .35 EPA per dropback (81st percentile).

Virginia isn’t a good team. But JMU still dropped 36 points on a Power 5 defense, and the underlying metrics indicate that wasn’t a smokescreen.

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There's only so much Blake Anderson can do.

Utah State could only watch as 75% of its offensive line starts, nine of its top 10 leaders in defensive snaps, 23 scholarship players and eight walk-ons departed in the offseason.

The Aggies returned quarterback Cooper Legas, but he already has two interceptions and three turnover-worthy plays to only one big-time throw through three games. This comes after he posted nine big-time throws to 14 turnover-worthy plays last year. Uninspiring stuff.

Outside of slot receiver Terrell Vaughn, the offense is devoid of talent. And this re-worked offensive line ranks 107th in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.

So, Legas is regressing and has almost no support. Yikes.

Utah State has been fine by Success Rate, but the offense lacks substance. The Aggies finished with negative EPA per play marks against Iowa and Air Force.

Also, some of Utah State’s season-long numbers might be boosted by a 78-point outburst against Idaho State in which it rushed for 380 yards and five scores on 41 carries. I wouldn’t be surprised to see its top-10 EPA per Rush mark regress in conference play.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how James Madison and Utah State match up statistically:

James Madison Offense vs. Utah State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	91	126
Line Yards	103	98
Pass Success	53	28
Havoc	77	85
Finishing Drives	93	120
Quality Drives	91	90

Utah State Offense vs. James Madison Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	10	2
Line Yards	13	6
Pass Success	82	104
Havoc	65	3
Finishing Drives	55	70
Quality Drives	51	27

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	74	35
PFF Coverage	55	29
Special Teams SP+	1	14
Middle 8	93	76
Seconds per Play	28.2 (85)	22.5 (6)
Rush Rate	58.2% (35)	45.1% (114)

If any team is primed to force rushing regression upon Utah State, it’s James Madison. The Dukes defense should stuff the Aggies into a locker.

If a team wants to beat JMU, it has to beat it over the top. Unfortunately for Utah State, the Aggies don’t have the personnel to do that, as they’d rather hit Vaughn for eight yards per catch.

The Dukes’ experienced offensive line should also dominate the line of scrimmage. The Aggies' defensive line is a work in progress that's filled with transfers. That reworked line ranks 98th nationally in Defensive Line Yards through three games.

The Aggies stuffed Air Force on 2% of rushing attempts last week. Yes, it’s tough to stuff a rock-solid triple-option rushing attack, but those are still pitiful numbers.

So even if James Madison's aerial attack struggles — and we're not sure it will — the Dukes should ground and pound their way to a convincing victory on Saturday, especially if the defense continues to give them back the ball.

I’ll be on the Dukes at anything under a touchdown. This is a good matchup, and I'm high on James Madison and very low on Utah State compared to the market.