The Kansas State Wildcats take on the Utah Utes in Salt Lake City, Utah. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Utah is favored by 17 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. Kansas State, meanwhile, enters as a +17 underdog and is +575 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Kansas State vs. Utah prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Kansas State vs Utah Prediction
- Kansas State vs. Utah Pick: Kansas State +17.5
My Utah vs. Kansas State best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas State vs Utah Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 51.5 -110o / u | +575 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 51.5 -110o / u | -850 |
- Kansas State vs Utah Spread: Utah -17, Kansas State +17
- Kansas State vs Utah Over/Under: 51.5 Points
- Kansas State vs Utah Moneyline: Kansas State +575, Utah -850
Kansas State vs Utah College Football Betting Preview
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: Looking to Bounce Back
Kansas State enters this matchup coming off a frustrating offensive showing, but the underlying numbers suggest this team is far more dangerous than last week’s performance indicated.
The Wildcats’ biggest advantage in this matchup is their explosiveness. Despite sitting at just 5-5, Kansas State ranks seventh nationally in offensive explosiveness.
Big plays travel well, and they’re one of the primary ways underdogs stay inside large spreads.
In particular, look for the Wildcats to attack through the air, as they're 27th in passing explosiveness. Quarterback Avery Johnson is a boom-or-bust quarterback, and he has the opportunity to make some big plays against a leaky Utah secondary.
Kansas State’s defense, meanwhile, remains much stronger in underlying metrics than the raw scoring numbers imply. They’re 45th in Success Rate allowed, 38th in Havoc and 25th in Points Per Opportunity allowed.
To summarize, this defense ensures that offenses have to stay behind the chains by limiting efficient plays, as well as disrupting the offense. This tracks with the Wildcats' 32nd-ranked standard down rate allowed on defense.
Remember that while the offense embarrassed itself with just 14 points against Oklahoma State, the defense only gave up six.
Utah Utes Betting Preview: Bunch of Utes
On the flip side, this is a very solid Utah team. Rocking an 8-2 record, its only two losses have come to BYU and Texas Tech, top-20 opponents.
The Utes have done this by being a solid overall team. In particular, their defense has carried them to their two-loss record.
Their advanced metrics back this up, as they rank 10th in Success Rate allowed, 11th in Points Per Opportunity allowed and 30th in Havoc. They excel at playing against opponents who play more conservative offenses.
When playing Texas Tech, the Utes had the Red Raiders offense dead until backup quarterback Will Hammond entered the game, and they instituted a more aggressive game plan.
Almost immediately, Tech ripped off three 20-plus yard scores behind Hammond's willingness to sling the rock.
This is shown in their explosiveness numbers on defense. Overall, they rank 114th in defensive explosiveness. Both pass (111th) play explosiveness allowed and rush (119th) play explosiveness allowed are not good. Look for Kansas State to take advantage.
Kansas State vs Utah Pick, Betting Analysis
We're all trying to find the guy who backed Kansas State's offense specifically last week (OK, it was me, I'm the guy). Well, we're going back to the well.
Utah’s biggest edges in most matchups — Success Rate and third-down efficiency — matter a bit less when facing an explosive offense. Kansas State doesn’t need 12-play drives; it needs 2-3 explosive strikes per half to stay within 17.5.
On the other side, Utah’s offense isn't built to run away from teams. Its lack of explosiveness (90th) forces it into long, multi-play drives.
Kansas State’s defense ranks 45th in Success Rate allowed and 38th in Havoc, which means Utah is more likely to experience drive stalls, negative plays and field-goal attempts instead of touchdowns.
Heavy favorites dependent on long drives are historically more vulnerable to large spreads than explosive favorites.
Even if Utah controls the run game and wins the efficiency battle, Kansas State has the defense to keep it out of the end zone.
I think Utah is going to try to control the clock as much as possible and keep it out of Johnson's hands. Meanwhile, if Kansas State can rattle off one explosive touchdown, I think that will be enough to help it cover this spread.
Pick: Kansas State +17.5
Kansas State vs Utah Betting Trends
