The Kent State Golden Flashes take on the Ball State Cardinals in Muncie, Indiana, on Wednesday, Nov. 5. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Ball State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. Kent State, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is +105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 points.
Here’s my Kent State vs. Ball State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, November 5.
Kent State vs Ball State Prediction
- Kent State vs. Ball State Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)
My Ball State vs. Kent State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Kent State vs Ball State Odds
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Kent State vs Ball State Spread: Ball State -1.5, Kent State +1.5
- Kent State vs Ball State Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Kent State vs Ball State Moneyline: Kent State +105, Ball State -125
Kent State vs Ball State College Football Betting Preview
If you’re looking for a low-scoring rock fight in the MAC, look no further than Wednesday night’s showdown between Kent State and Ball State. This has all the makings of an under.
Neither offense is built to light up the scoreboard, and both defenses quietly match up well against the opposing attack.
Kent State enters with the 81st-ranked passing unit in EPA Per Pass at just +0.02, and things are even worse on the ground, where its -0.21 EPA Per Rush ranks an abysmal 134th nationally.
That should feed right into Ball State’s defense, which is above average against the run and pass, ranking inside the top 90 in both categories.
The Golden Flashes also struggle mightily to stay on schedule, racking up an atrocious 31.8% of available yards, while working from one of the nation’s worst starting field positions (own 25).
Combine that with their early downs EPA Per Play sitting at -0.08 and a 36% Success Rate on late downs, and it’s clear this Kent offense is destined for plenty of punts, even against a below-average defense.
Although the Flashes looked better as of late, I don’t put a ton of stock into their offensive efficiency.
Ball State won’t be blowing anyone away either, especially with an aerial attack that ranks 126th in EPA Per Pass — a perfect matchup for the Kent State defense, which is quietly strong against the pass.
The Cardinals’ rushing attack is equally ineffective at -0.07 EPA Per Rush, 129th in the nation. When you combine that with a 35.2% conversion rate on third downs, it becomes clear that Ball State will struggle to sustain drives all night long.
To make matters worse, neither team benefits from a favorable field position, and both offenses find themselves in long-yardage situations often, averaging over seven yards to go on third downs.
All signs point toward stalled possessions and a fast-moving clock.
Kent State vs Ball State Pick, Betting Analysis
Adding fuel to the low-total fire is the injury report. Kent State is already shorthanded, reporting multiple players who are questionable or out on both sides of the ball.
Ball State also has a laundry list of injuries, as it's been getting depleted as the season has progressed. A lot of the injuries come from the skill positions, which certainly doesn't help its case.
It really is tough to sell me on either team right now, and these metrics are as ugly as they can get on the offensive side of the ball.
This is exactly the kind of recipe that drives the total to go under.
Given both teams’ inability to produce explosive plays or convert scoring opportunities, under 47.5 is the clear play in what should be a classic MAC grinder in early November.
Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)
Kent State vs Ball State Betting Trends
