College Football Odds, Picks for Liberty vs. FIU

In a matchup of three-win teams, Florida International hosts Liberty in a Saturday night Conference USA battle.

The Panthers are one win away from matching their win total from a season ago after victories over Maine, North Texas and Connecticut.

Meanwhile, the Flames enter with an unbeaten record — both straight up and against the spread.

With the way these squads are playing, this game could go a long way toward deciding who eventually plays in the C-USA Championship.

This should be a great contest, and I believe it'll be closer than the odds suggest.

If anyone was doubting coach Jamey Chadwell in his first year at Liberty, then he's proving them wrong already.

However, the low quality of opponents has certainly helped.

Luckily for Chadwell, the schedule shouldn’t really get much harder in the weak Conference USA. In fact, the Flames are likely to be favored in every game — except one — for the remainder of the season.

Quarterback Kaidon Salter has been key to the strong start. Salter leads C-USA in QB Rating (191.3), QBR (70.9) and passing touchdowns (9).

He's also chipped in on the ground with 38 carries for 191 yards and three more scores.

When you add it all up, he only trails USC’s Caleb Williams for most points responsible for per game (24).

Salter garnered national honors for his play against Buffalo last week, and he’ll look to keep it going this week.

If you bet FIU over 2.5 wins, you're already a winner, which has to be a surprise with how the year started.

The Panthers looked lifeless on offense in their Week 0 loss at Louisiana Tech, but have since turned it around.

Coach Mike MacIntyre made a key switch at quarterback and chose to start Keyone Jenkins, who leads C-USA with 289 passing yards per game.

Jenkins will need to keep it going if FIU wants to have a fighting chance to make it back to a bowl game for the first time since 2019.

I came into the season rating Liberty lower than the market, but the Flames have continually proven me wrong.

I took a break from fading them last week, but I find myself wanting to oppose them again here. The number is just a bit too big on the road against an improving FIU team.

With that said, my best bet is to take FIU and the 10.5 points at BetMGM, a number I'd play to +10.

This wouldn’t be my biggest play of the week, but I do like the line on the other side of 10, a key number.

This game will come down to how the Panthers’ defense holds up against Chadwell’s unique offense. FIU boasts solid advanced defensive metrics and ranks in the top 15 among non-Power Five teams in Success Rate and points per opportunity.

From a total perspective, this number has dropped from the opener of 59.5. If we're going to see a lower-scoring game, then I like a double-digit home underdog even more.