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Liberty vs UConn Odds, Picks & Predictions | Time to Back Hugh Freeze?

Liberty vs UConn Odds, Picks & Predictions | Time to Back Hugh Freeze? article feature image
Credit:

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Liberty’s Demario Douglas.

Liberty vs UConn Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
12 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Liberty Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-13.5
-110
45.5
-104o / -118u
-580
UConn Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+13.5
-110
45.5
-104o / -118u
+420
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Liberty looks to extend its win streak to seven as it travels Saturday to face off against UConn.

Hugh Freeze is coming off the biggest win of his Flames career, upsetting Arkansas as 14.5-point underdogs. The Flames led, 21-3, behind a dominant defensive performance in the first half. The Razorbacks clawed their way back but were denied on a two-point opportunity to tie the game in the closing minute.

Ruling on the field stands.
NO GOOD! pic.twitter.com/CDnpEz9Flf

— Liberty Football (@LibertyFootball) November 5, 2022

The Flames handed KJ Jefferson his first loss in nine games against non-SEC competition.

Connecticut has a combined record of 10-40 since 2016. But this year, the group is 5-5 and needs a victory over Liberty or Army to become bowl eligible for the first time in seven years.  

Will the Huskies reach a bowl game, or will Liberty continue its seven-game win streak?


Liberty Flames

Liberty hopes to break the trend of playing to its level of competition this week. The program just narrowly snuck past Gardner-Webb and Akron this season, while both of its matchups against Wake Forest and Arkansas were decided by less than two points.

But last week’s matchup was a good preparation week for the Connecticut offense. The Flames were dominant against the best rushing attack they’ve faced this season in Arkansas.

The defense held the Razorbacks to just three yards rushing in the first quarter. Arkansas ended the game with 144 rushing attempts, but it took 42 attempts to do so, resulting in a 3.4 yards per carry average.

The Flames will again see a run-heavy approach, as Connecticut ranks sixth in the nation with a 65% rush rate.

Liberty’s offense has continued to do enough to keep its win streak alive. The group is averaging 31 points and over 420 yards of offense this season. The Flames exploded against BYU, totaling 550 yards while averaging 8.5 yards per pass and 6.3 yards per carry.

Arkansas shut down the rushing attack last week. But quarterback Johnathan Bennett picked up the slack, throwing for 224 yards (9.0 yards per pass attempt) while tossing three touchdowns.

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Connecticut Huskies

Despite owning a 5-5 record, the Huskies still rank among the bottom 10 teams in the nation, according to Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.

Three of Connecticut’s victories have come against Central Connecticut State and the bottom two teams in the country in Florida International and UMass. The Huskies do have wins over Fresno State and Boston College but faced backup quarterbacks in each.

UConn has folded when it’s faced stiffer competition. The group lost by a total of 124 points to Syracuse, NC State,and Michigan. Though Liberty isn’t built quite like those three powerhouses, it did just defeat a strong Arkansas program.

Connecticut’s offense is averaging just 17 points per game and 4.5 yards per play against FBS foes.

The Huskies lack a real passing threat, as they rank 129th in the nation at 5.0 yards per pass attempt. Quarterback Zion Turner is putting up just 100 passing yards per game while completing 60% of his passes.

Turner is more of a threat with his legs and ranks second in carries on the season. But the freshman quarterback averages only 2.4 yards per carry.

Running back Devontae Houston has emerged as the lead back for the program over the last three weeks. In that span, he has amounted 324 yards on just 42 carries for an average of 7.7 yards per carry.


Liberty vs UConn Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and UConn match up statistically:

Liberty Offense vs. UConn Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 86 105
Line Yards 83 89
Pass Success 100 108
Pass Blocking** 35 91
Havoc 122 92
Finishing Drives 81 32
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UConn Offense vs. Liberty Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 84 11
Line Yards 99 10
Pass Success 127 9
Pass Blocking** 29 75
Havoc 116 3
Finishing Drives 89 24
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 101 88
PFF Coverage 46 31
SP+ Special Teams 94 74
Seconds per Play 26.3 (63) 29.5 (121)
Rush Rate 58.4% (33) 67.3% (6)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Liberty vs UConn Betting Pick

UConn allowed an average of 45 points per game to its first four FBS opponents. That number has dropped to just 13 points over the last five weeks.

The main reason is that the level of competition has dropped dramatically. This matchup against Liberty will be more to the standard of the first four opponents the Huskies lost against.

Liberty’s defense showed up and stopped the run last week against Arkansas. That prepared it well for this matchup, as Connecticut is reliant on running the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the country.

If a team can shut down the run, the Huskies offense will fold.

UConn’s Turner has passed for over 130 yards just twice this season, and one of them came against FCS opponent Central Connecticut State.

Connecticut’s recent hot streak is more of a mirage with the soft schedule. Liberty, meanwhile, is beating some high-level programs, such as BYU and Arkansas.

Freeze will want to continue to build his resume for potential Power Five jobs out there. He won’t let his program fall for a letdown spot in this game.

Pick: Liberty -14 ⋅ Play to -16.5

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