Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee Odds, Prediction & Picks | CUSA Betting Guide
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Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+3 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-3 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -160 |
Louisiana Tech meets Middle Tennessee in Tuesday night Conference USA action after the league adopted the MAC’s strategy of giving us some mid-week football to consume.
Us college football fans thank them for it.
This matchup features two teams that are on the same tier, and this should make for a good fight in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
However, there's one unit in this game that I believe will decide which team comes out victorious in this conference bout.
Let’s take a look at this breakdown and our Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee pick.
Louisiana Tech hasn't had the best of years offensively. The Bulldogs rank 104th in Success Rate and 73rd in Finishing Drives, but they have been the 17th-most explosive offense.
The Bulldogs haven’t been great in either facet of their offense, as they rank 98th in Rushing Success Rate and 103rd in Passing Success Rate. They do pass at the 47th-highest rate in the country, but this hasn't proven to be any more effective than running the ball.
Over the last few weekends, this passing attack has been led by quarterback Jack Turner. Turner saw very little playing time in 2022 but has seen much more action over the last month, as he's been starting in place of the injured Hank Bachmeier.
There hasn't been any indication as to who will start this week, but Turner has proven to at least be a serviceable starter in his time here.
The best unit in this game — without a doubt — is the Louisiana Tech passing defense. The Bulldogs rank ninth in PFF coverage grade on the year. They're also fifth in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 17th in Passing PPA Allowed.
Their one downfall has been that they allow explosive plays at an unusually high rate, ranking 130th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
The rushing defense has been fairly mediocre for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are 84th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 104th in Rushing PPA Allowed.
Based on the typical tendencies of this Middle Tennessee team, I wouldn't expect this to hurt the Bulldogs much.
If there’s one thing that Middle Tennessee loves to do, it’s throw the ball. The Blue Raiders pass at the 17th-highest rate in the country.
Unfortunately for them, this hasn't resulted in an extraordinary amount of success, as they're 87th in Passing Success Rate and 65th in PPA.
The ground game is where you could take advantage of this Louisiana Tech defense, but I have my doubts about Middle Tennessee’s ability to do so. The Blue Raiders rank 123rd in Rushing Success Rate and 124th in Rushing PPA Allowed.
Defensively, Middle Tennessee has been among one of the worst teams in the country at keeping opponents out of the end zone. This unit ranks 127th in opponent Finishing Drives. It's also 98th in Success Rate, coming in at 93rd against the run and 99th against the pass.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee match up statistically:
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 110 | |
| Havoc | 109 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 73 | 126 | |
| Quality Drives | 79 | 84 |
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 87 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 115 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 100 | |
| Quality Drives | 110 | 74 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 30 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 129 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 76 | 117 |
| Middle 8 | 52 | 128 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (73) | 25.3 (37) |
| Rush Rate | 50.4% (88) | 44.8% (116) |
Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even on the road, I believe Louisiana Tech is the better team here.
At minimum, the Bulldogs are on the same level offensively, and their passing defense will be the X-factor in this matchup.
This game is a poor matchup for Middle Tennessee, as the Blue Raiders won’t be able to pass the ball as much as they would like against this strong Bulldogs secondary.
For this reason, I like taking the three points with Louisiana Tech to cover on the road, as I believe it has a strong chance of winning outright as well.
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