If you're looking for betting value with conference futures, the ACC probably isn't the conference to look at. Miami is in the -210 to 220 range to win the league, even though it's seeking its first ACC Championship in program history.
This season, Miami avoids SMU and Louisville, who both defeated the Canes last season. However, it could see one of them in the conference championship, so perhaps it shouldn't be crowned yet.
This week will go a long way toward determining the ACC Championship race, as SMU travels to Louisville to battle the Cardinals.
The matchup will pit two of the country's best offensive minds (Rhett Lashlee and Jeff Brohm) for a third consecutive meeting. SMU has won both meetings since joining the ACC, 34-27 in Louisville and 38-6 in Dallas last season.
Oddsmakers are expecting another high-scoring affair with a total of 59 points. With that in mind, here are my Louisville vs. SMU picks and a parlay.
SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Picks, Parlay
- SMU QB Kevin Jennings 300+ Alt Passing Yards
- Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz 40+ Alt Rushing Yards
- Louisville WR Tre Richardson 60+ Alt Receiving Yards
- SMU TE Randy Pittman Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Parlay Odds: +1700 via DraftKings
SMU vs Louisville Odds, Betting Lines
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 58.5 -112o / -108u | -102 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 58.5 -112o / -108u | -118 |
Kevin Jennings 300+ Alt Passing Yards (+107)
There may not be a school in the country that loves its quarterback more than SMU loves Kevin Jennings.
In July, the school unveiled the "Kevin Jennings Recovery Center" named in his honor. It also launched a Heisman campaign ahead of his senior season.
With the exception of a pair of turnovers that made the Mustangs' win over Florida State closer than it should've been, Jennings' Heisman run is off to a great start.
Through his first two games, Jennings has thrown for 767 yards and eight touchdowns. He's thrown for 300 yards and three touchdown passes in each of his first two games.
Dating back to last season, Jennings has now thrown for 300 yards in five of his last seven games, and he's averaging 327 passing yards per game in that span.
Jennings is completing 77% of his passes this season. That number will likely regress at some point, and Trinidad Chambliss only completed 58% of his passes against Louisville. However, Chambliss also lit the Cardinals up for 336 yards and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt.
Jennings had his own success against the Cardinals in previous meetings, with 281 and 303 yards in two duels. He only threw 16 passes last week as SMU trounced UC Davis.
However, he threw 36 against Florida State and has averaged 32 pass attempts against Louisville.
If Jennings attempts 30 passes or more in what's likely a close game, I like his chances of another 300-yard game against the Cardinals.
Lincoln Kienholz 40+ Alt Rushing Yards (+112)
Lincoln Kienholz spent the first three seasons of his career at Ohio State. He transferred to Louisville last winter after Julian Sayin entrenched himself as QB1 in Columbus.
A four-star recruit out of high school, Kienholz has already flashed the dynamic dual-threat skill that made him a coveted prospect.
Like Jennings, he's already thrown for 300 yards in each of his first two games. However, he's also added 111 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, while clearing 40 rushing yards in each game. A chunk of his rushing total came on a 41-yard scamper against Ole Miss.
With rushing props for college quarterbacks, sacks have to be taken into consideration, and SMU already has five sacks this season. The Rebels sacked Kienholz three times, but he still ran for 69 yards on 14 attempts.
Florida State was able to find success against SMU on the ground as it ran for 199 yards, including 71 yards and a touchdown from quarterback Ashton Daniels.
Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown join Kienholz in the backfield, and they can replicate that success this week.
Tre Richardson 70+ Alt Receiving Yards (+113)
After hauling in 45 receptions for 806 yards and seven touchdowns from Heisman finalist Diego Pavia at Vanderbilt, Tre Richardson transferred to Louisville for his senior season.
If the two first two games are any indication, he'll contend for All-ACC honors.
Against Ole Miss, Richardson hauled in four receptions for 83 yards, including a 62-yard touchdown. He followed that up with seven receptions for 98 yards against Villanova last week.
Dating back to last season, he's cleared this line in each of his last six games. He's posted 75 yards or more in each of those games.
Despite arriving as a transfer, Richardson appears to have already cemented himself as WR1 for Kienholz. The next three Cardinals in receptions have six, five and five, with Richardson nearly doubling all of them.
While he's proven himself as a Power 4-level serious threat, Richardson can be a target magnet at all levels of the field. He's recorded six receptions in four of his past four games, and six receptions this week should put him well over 70 yards, especially given his 16 yards per reception average.
Randy Pittman Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185)
For Randy Pittman Jr., SMU will be the final stop of his collegiate career after two years each at UCF and Florida State.
The Panama City native quickly got to go back to his home state when the Mustangs visited Tallahassee. He got some revenge on his former school, catching five passes for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Seminoles.
Pittman only caught one pass last week against UC Davis, but he also found the end zone from two yards out.
With extreme heat and SMU dominating, both coaches agreed to play 12 minutes in the second half, so the Mustangs didn't need much more from him. However, they'll likely need him this week.
Quarterbacks often look for their tight ends in the red zone, particularly an athletic move tight end such as Pittman. Lashlee has liked featuring his TEs, as RJ Maryland and Matthew Hibner combined for 106 catches and 14 touchdowns over the last two years.
That likely appealed to Pittman when he was in the portal, and he's now scored in each of his first two games.
We're still getting a great price for him to score again, and if so, he may just cash this parlay.
SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Picks, Parlay
- Kevin Jennings 300+ Alt Passing Yards
- Lincoln Kienholz 40+ Alt Rushing Yards
- Tre Richardson 60+ Alt Receiving Yards
- Randy Pittman Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Parlay Odds: +1700 via DraftKings
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