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Purdue vs LSU Odds, Prediction, Picks | How to Bet Monday’s Citrus Bowl

Purdue vs LSU Odds, Prediction, Picks | How to Bet Monday’s Citrus Bowl article feature image
Credit:

Jonathan Bachman and Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured from left: Armoni Goodwin (22) of LSU and Dylan Downing (38) of Purdue.

Purdue vs LSU Odds

Monday, January 2
1 p.m. ET
ABC
Purdue Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-15.5
-105
54.5
-110o / -110u
-710
LSU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+15.5
-115
54.5
-110o / -110u
+490
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Citrus Bowl between LSU and Purdue is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing matchups of bowl season. Well, maybe “intriguing” isn’t the correct word. Perhaps it’s just “weird.”

A few days ago, New Jersey halted betting on this game due to Drew Brees’ relationship with PointsBet and his involvement with the Boilermakers, causing PointsBet to end its relationship with the former Purdue quarterback.

On the football field, however, these two teams are coming into the game on completely different ends of the continuity spectrum.

The Tigers enter this game knowing that next year they have a potential Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback and a head coach who is looking to become only the third coach in LSU history to reach 10 wins in a season.

This squad will be looking to cap off this season with an emphatic win before entering next year as a potential National Championship contender behind Jayden Daniels and Brian Kelly.

Meanwhile, it seems that almost every person who was responsible for taking Purdue to the Big Ten Championship will not be a part of this game.

Head coach Jeff Brohm has already left the team to start his tenure at Louisville. His brother, offensive coordinator Brian Brohm, will be overseeing the bowl game before following his brother.

In addition, All-Big Ten quarterback Aidan O’Connell and leading receiver Charlie Jones have opted out, along with three other starters.


Purdue Boilermakers

I already outlined the opt-outs for the Boilermakers on offense, so let’s focus on what Purdue does have coming into this game.

Senior Austin Burton will start this game at quarterback, and he has performed admirably in a backup role this season. In his only start of the year, he went for 166 passing yards and three scores against Florida Atlantic.

In addition, former walk-on running back Devin Mockobee should be getting plenty of touches in this one with LSU’s opt-outs in the front seven.

I also expect Purdue to slow down its offense. During the regular season, the Boilermakers ranked 48th in seconds per play. With such a depleted group, Purdue should be looking to play keep away from Daniels and the Tigers offense with longer offensive possessions.

On defense, Purdue will be missing starting cornerback Cory Trice, which is unfortunate for the Boilers against a scary passing attack. However, this Purdue defense ranked a respectable 28th in Success Rate Allowed.

Pressuring Daniels and creating turnovers will be a key for this defense. However, that might be easier said than done, as this squad struggled to create Havoc during the regular season, ranking 70th nationally.

The Boilermakers have also struggled to stop opponents from scoring once they cross the 40, ranking 105th in Points per Opportunity Allowed on defense. This will be a massive mismatch in this one, as LSU ranks in the top 25 in terms of Offensive Points per Opportunity.


LSU Tigers

One word to describe this Tigers offense? Successful. LSU ranks 10th in overall Success Rate, including fourth on the ground and 21st in the air.

It’s done this behind the arms and legs of Daniels, a PFF third-team All-SEC quarterback. Perhaps no quarterback in the country is as electrifying as the former Arizona State Sun Devil. Daniels ranks 15th with an 88.6 PFF offensive grade and is its ninth-highest graded quarterback when it comes to running the ball.

In addition to their excellent Success Rate, the Tigers excel at punching the ball into the end zone when they cross the opponents’ 40-yard line, ranking 23rd in Points per Opportunity on offense. Once again, Daniels is to thank for this success. With 16 passing touchdowns and 11 rushing scores, he’s just as likely to run the ball in as he is to throw a dart to a wide receiver for a touchdown.

Now, wide receiver Kayshon Boutte has opted out after declaring for the NFL Draft, but I don’t expect that to slow down this Tiger offense very much.

On the defensive side of the ball, LSU should have an easier time against a depleted Boilermaker offense than the high-powered offenses of the SEC.

In particular, look for stud freshman Harold Perkins to have a big day, especially with PFF first-team All-SEC edge rusher BJ Ojulari opting out. Against an inexperienced Purdue offense, Perkins could have an absolute field day as he looks to secure a preseason All-American selection for 2023.

The Tigers could struggle to stop the run, assuming the Boilermakers keep the ball on the ground due to missing key components of their passing attack. LSU ranked 63rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and could be vulnerable to a slowed-down play style that grinds it out.

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Purdue vs LSU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Purdue and LSU match up statistically:

LSU Offense vs Purdue Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 4 32
Line Yards 3 67
Pass Success 21 42
Pass Blocking** 67 51
Havoc 54 70
Finishing Drives 23 105
** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def)

Purdue Offense vs LSU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 34 63
Line Yards 104 49
Pass Success 41 31
Pass Blocking** 52 24
Havoc 10 85
Finishing Drives 89 33
** Pass Blocking (Off) vs Pass Rush (Def)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 78 31
PFF Coverage 95 87
SP+ Special Teams 88 108
Seconds per Play 26.1 (56) 25.8 (48)
Rush Rate 52.4% (78) 44.3% (119)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics

Purdue vs LSU Betting Prediction, Picks

As outlined earlier, I think Purdue will keep the ball on the ground and slow this game down. With so many key pieces missing, it will have to play keep away from the Tigers offense.

In addition, Purdue’s defense is no slouch, and I expect it to record some stops and keep LSU out of the red zone. The Boilermakers will play a field-position game and look to make the Tigers earn points off of long drives.

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