Maryland vs. Purdue Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions: Is the Wrong Team Favored?

Maryland vs. Purdue Betting Picks, Odds & Predictions: Is the Wrong Team Favored? article feature image

John Jones-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Purdue DE George Karlaftis

Maryland vs. Purdue

  • Spread: Purdue +3.5
  • Over/Under: 53.5
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: Big Ten Network

Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

An opening spread of Purdue +16.5 at Circa Sports closed at +28.5 in last week’s game against Penn State. It is safe to say the oddsmakers knew how to properly identify the Boilermakers without quarterback Elijah Sindelar and wide receiver Rondale Moore as the final score fell 35-7.

But it may be a shock to see Purdue as a short underdog against Maryland.

The good news for Purdue? Jack Plummer did not turn the ball over against a top 10 defense in Penn State. For all the press of the decimated offensive line of the Boilermakers, the Nittany Lions generated 10 sacks, 13 tackles for loss and four hurries of Plummer without generating an interception in Week 6.Maryland is just 57th in sack rate and rank outside the top 40 in defensive passing success rate. There is room for Plummer to work.

#Purdue FINALLY able to get on the board. Jack Plummer goes 15 yards to Amad Anderson through the air. Penn State leads it 28-7 in the 2Q:

— Dakota Simon (@DakotaSimonTV) October 5, 2019

Maryland allows more 7.5 yards per pass attempt and over 60% completion rate against opponents. Those defensive metrics are both outside the top 65.

Take the Rutgers game out of the statistics and Maryland gave up nine touchdowns and an average of 335 yards through the air to Temple’s Anthony Russo, Syracuse’s Tommy DeVito and PSU’s Sean Clifford.

Tyrrell Pigrome will likely get the start at quarterback for Maryland with Josh Jackson doubtful (ankle). The Terps offensive line has had as many issues as the Boilermakers with a rank of 111th in stuff rate and 70th in sack rate.

The biggest issue for Maryland is points in the red zone. The Terps are 113th in red zone scoring with an average of 4.92 points per trip. Don’t look for Maryland to kick past the 40 yard line, as the Terps are the only team in the nation without a field goal. Mike Locksley may have zero faith in his kicking unit, with just two failed attempts through five games.

Pick: Purdue +3.5

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