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The Miami Hurricanes take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on Saturday, Oct. 31. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -650. UNC, meanwhile, enters as a +14.5 underdog and is +470 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. UNC prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 31.
Miami vs UNC Prediction
- Miami vs. UNC Pick: Miami -14.5
My UNC vs. Miami best bet is on the Hurricanes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami vs UNC Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +470 |
- Miami vs UNC Spread: Miami -14.5 (-105), UNC +14.5 (-115)
- Miami vs UNC Over/Under: 52.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Miami vs UNC Moneyline: Miami -650, UNC +470
Miami vs UNC College Football Preview
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Mensah Leading the Way
Quality of opponents aside, Miami has taken care of business, jumping out to a 7-0 start to the year while in sole possession of first place in the ACC.
Even after having to retool the roster, the acquisition of Darian Mensah has kept the Hurricanes competitive. Mensah is throwing for over 300 yards per game while completing 81.4% of his passes.
With Mensah taking care of the ball while Malachi Toney stretches out the coverage, Miami’s offense has been a juggernaut, entering Week 9 ranked in the top 15 in Success Rate, explosiveness, Finishing Drives and Havoc allowed.
Mensah’s success through the air also creates more space for Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory to exploit, with the duo averaging more than five yards per carry.
On the other side of the ball, the Hurricanes have been productive on defense, ranking near the top of the board in Success Rate allowed and Points Per Opportunity allowed.
While Miami has been able to smother the middle of the field, the Hurricanes have been vulnerable to getting beat deep, plummeting down to 79th in passing explosiveness allowed.
Until the back end can start holding their assignments in front of them, Mensah will need to continue to play at a high level to help set a scoring pace too fast for their opponents to keep up with.
While the Heisman contender is certainly capable of lighting up the scoreboard, one off night could quickly put Miami too deep into a hole for it to climb out.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: UNC in Trouble?
Just when North Carolina was quietly sneaking up the ACC standings, a loss to Syracuse derailed its momentum, putting its hopes of playing in the conference championship on life support.
Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. was productive in the loss, throwing for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns while keeping a clean sheet.
When Edwards takes care of the ball, North Carolina’s offense has been efficient, ranking above league average in EPA Per Play.
Once in scoring position, Edwards has capped off the Tar Heels' drives by putting points on the board, averaging 3.85 Points Per Opportunity.
Unfortunately for North Carolina, the ground game has been horrific this season, limping into Saturday ranked outside the top 80 in Rushing Success Rate, PPA and explosiveness.
With the Tar Heels running backs struggling to pull defensive attention to the box, opposing defenses can anchor their linebackers in coverage, clogging Edwards' passing lanes.
To make matters worse for North Carolina, the defense has also harshly regressed the past few weeks, falling down to 96th in Success Rate allowed and 123rd in Havoc.
With the Heels' defensive line and secondary dangerously thin while dealing with injuries, negative regression is looming large in a physical matchup against Miami, putting far too much pressure on Edwards' shoulders to keep the team afloat.
Miami vs UNC Pick, Betting Analysis
Even with Miami giving up explosive plays at a high rate, it’s tough to envision how Edwards will counter it while relying on conservative throws to stay ahead of the sticks.
The Hurricanes' interior pressure will also force Edwards to get the ball out of his hands quickly after the snap, giving the Tar Heels pass-catchers less time in the open field to create space.
With UNC running backs Demon June and Benjamin Hall struggling to break through the trenches, the Hurricanes will be able to drop their linebackers in coverage, making it easier to keep a body near the point of contact.
Mensah will strengthen his claim for the Heisman by taking advantage of a reeling secondary that doesn't create many disruptions.
North Carolina’s injuries across the defensive line will also give Mensah a clean pocket to operate within.
Even in a lookahead spot to Notre Dame, Miami’s clear advantages on both sides of the ball will help the Hurricanes get out to a quick lead and stay outside the number.
If you don't have the opportunity to buy the Hurricanes down to a flat -14 at -120, reduce the size of your wager with a stop point at -17.
Pick: Miami -14.5 (Play to -17)
Miami vs UNC Betting Trends
