Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Ben Stille.
- Saturday's Michigan State-Nebraska game (12 p.m. ET, FOX) is going to be a frigid one, with temperatures in the 20s and winds approaching 20 mph.
- Using our Bet Labs software, we analyze how bettors can take advantage of this over/under.
In Week 12, the Nebraska Cornhuskers host the Michigan State Spartans in a Big 10 showdown (12 p.m. ET). Both teams are hoping to improve on their mediocre records in conference play and the line is within a point of a pick ’em on either side around the market.
I couldn’t care any less about the spread, though, as the weather forecast has my attention dialed into the over/under.
The forecast for Lincoln is looking quite miserable. It’s hard to believe some folks would drive one-sixth of the way across the country to sit in the stands for this one.
Those watching the game on their color TV sets will likely see some classic thermometer sideline shots, as the game will start out in the mid-20s and climb toward 30 as the game progresses.
The winds will also be suboptimal for players and fans alike.
Sustained winds of slightly over 20 mph at kickoff will weaken as the game goes on, but breezes are expected to average 19 mph over the course of the game — the highest mark of the week and one of three games above 15 mph.
According to Bet Labs, college football games with winds of at least 15 mph have gone under 57.6% of the time since 2005, and those played in freezing temperatures are 20-6.
One of those six losses was actually last week in … Nebraska! Conditions were very similar, but with Illinois in town and an over/under of 71, the two teams just couldn’t help themselves to combine for 89 points.
Mother Nature couldn’t have looked any dumber and she will be looking to redeem herself this go around.
The over/under for this game had remained around the opener of 49.5 until Thursday evening, when it dropped to 47.5.
On Thursday afternoon, the over was receiving 58% of bets and 50% of the money. However, as of Friday at 3 p.m. ET, the under is receiving two thirds of bets and dollars. Looks like folks have bought into the forecast.