The Michigan State Spartans take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln, Nebraska. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Nebraska is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Nebraska prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Michigan State vs Nebraska Prediction
- Michigan State vs. Nebraska Pick: Michigan State +11.5 (-110, bet365)
My Nebraska vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan State vs Nebraska Odds
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Michigan State vs Nebraska point spread: Nebraska -11.5
- Michigan State vs Nebraska over/under: 48.5 points
- Michigan State vs Nebraska moneyline: Michigan State +350, Nebraska -450
Michigan State vs Nebraska Preview
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
A well-timed bye week gave the Spartans a much-needed extra week to recover from their trip home from Los Angeles.
After a spirited 3-0 start that featured an emotional overtime home win over Boston College that hasn’t exactly aged well, it was fair to say that Michigan State’s first real test on the road against USC would show us who the Spartans really are.
And while they left Hollywood with a loss, there were positive signs. The Spartans matched USC’s prolific passing game play for play, and showed some serious fight in the second half, playing the Trojans to an even 21-21 score in the final 30 minutes of the game.
It’s not perfect, but progress is showing. Jonathan Smith’s squad doesn’t beat itself — through four games, Michigan State has yet to commit more penalties than its opponent in a game. The Spartans will need that level of discipline to earn an upset in Lincoln, but they may be up for the challenge.
Star dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles has blossomed into a legitimate dynamo under center. He has seemingly solved his turnover issues from last season and has tallied nine touchdowns to just one interception through four games.
Flanking Chiles is a pair of star receivers — sophomore sensation Nick Marsh (who played through a minor injury in a quiet performance vs. USC) and transfer Omari Kelly, whose six-catch, 133-yard evening was his best of the season.
With Kelly and a fully recovered Marsh, the Nebraska defense will have its hands full. Even if the 'Huskers contain the primary threats through the air, Chiles can extend drives with his legs. He's amassed 146 yards and two touchdowns on the ground across his past three games, and has broken at least one run of 12-plus yards in every game this season.
The Spartan defense is much-maligned, but with the offensive weapons at their disposal, if this game turns into a shootout, Michigan State will feel like they have a great chance to keep up.
Nebraska Cornhuskers Betting Preview
Following the disappointing home loss to Michigan, Nebraska has had an extra week to regroup.
The extra rest will help, but so will a much more favorable matchup for Nebraska’s biggest strength.
This Cornhusker team wants to go where Dylan Raiola’s arm will take them. When he’s not cosplaying Patrick Mahomes, Raiola is a legitimate NFL arm talent that can pop off big plays left and right. It hasn’t come together in the form of statement wins yet, but Matt Rhule is hoping it will come together later this season.
Raiola has two games with 300-plus passing yards this season, including a quality game in the Huskers’ loss to Michigan, where he notched 308 yards and three touchdowns. The Wolverine defense is much more formidable against passing offenses than their in-state rival Spartans, and it’s likely that Raiola shines against the 112th-ranked pass defense in the country, allowing 0.36 EPA per pass.
Michigan State consistently fails to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Raiola is one of the best pocket passers you will find in college football. He should pick them apart.
While Nebraska’s receivers will be licking their chops, Nebraska’s defense will have its hands full. The Cornhuskers have struggled against the run this year overall, but especially against dual-threat quarterbacks, and Chiles qualifies.
Michigan ran for 8.7 yards per carry as a team against Nebraska, but Bryce Underwood himself accounted for 61 yards and a touchdown. That’s a recipe that Cincinnati also used to find success in the first game of the season, as Brendan Sorsby led the Bearcats in ground yards with 96 on 13 attempts and two touchdowns.
It warrants mention that Nebraska failed to cover the spread in both those games — not just the games with dual-threat quarterbacks, but the quote-unquote “big games” on the schedule this season.
Matt Rhule hasn’t fared well in big spots during his early tenure at Nebraska, and as a big favorite against a quality opponent, he has become a consistent fade target.
Michigan State vs Nebraska Pick, Betting Analysis
Add it all up, and a high-scoring game should be in store, making this a fun matchup for both fans and bettors alike.
The result of the game itself will come down to which mismatch capitalizes more — the deadly Nebraska passing attack against a miserable Michigan State pass defense, or the explosive Chiles exploring Nebraska’s inability to handle running quarterbacks.
Given the expected offensive success here, I recommend two plays.
The Over 49.5 shows good value, but my favorite play is Michigan State as a double-digit 'dog.
Anything over a touchdown and a field goal is too much respect for a Nebraska team that isn’t ready to contend yet.
Pick: Michigan State +10.5 (-110, bet365) | Lean Over 48.5
