Michigan vs Alabama Best Bets: Spread, Over/Under Picks for the 2024 Rose Bowl Game
Getty Images. Design by Matt Roembke/Action Network. Pictured (left to right): Alabama’s Jermaine Burton, Nick Saban and Jalen Milroe. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Jim Harbaugh and Blake Corum.
1Michigan vs 4Alabama
2024 Rose Bowl Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
By Cody Goggin
The Rose Bowl is known as “The Grandaddy of Them All,” and the 110th rendition of this storied game is set to give us another memorable one as the Michigan Wolverines (13-0) take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1).
This will be the fourth time the Rose Bowl has served as a College Football Playoff semifinal stage. Alabama was victorious over Notre Dame the last time they were here, while Michigan is making its first appearance in Pasadena since 2007.
This is Michigan’s third time qualifying for the playoffs, doing so the past two seasons. This season is the Wolverines' best shot at winning it all, but they must get through a resurgent Alabama team first.
The SEC champions squeaked into the playoffs, defeating Georgia and narrowly sliding into the fourth and final playoff spot amid plenty of controversy.
After a tough start to the season, Nick Saban’s team has bounced back behind the play of quarterback Jalen Milroe.
Milroe was benched during the USF game early in the year but rebounded to a sixth-place finish in Heisman voting. Milroe’s play and tough defense got them to the CFP.
Michigan cruised through the first portion of the schedule, as it didn’t face an actual test until Veteran’s Day. In its two hardest games of the season, Big Blue dispatched Penn State and Ohio State, propelling it to the No. 1 CFP seed.
Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines have faced plenty of backlash this year, with Harbaugh getting suspended for the first four games of the season for recruiting-related violations and missing the last few games thanks to the infamous sign-stealing scandal.
These two teams are fantastic; many believe this game's winner will win it all. The markets would tend to agree as both Alabama and Michigan are favored on the lookahead lines against either opponent they may face on Jan. 8.
With these being potentially two of the best teams in the country, we left it to our staff to decide who they thought would prevail. Our writers ended up coming to an overwhelming consensus in both polls.
Michigan vs Alabama Spread
Alabama +1.5
Our staff, in overwhelming fashion, thinks the Crimson Tide cover the short spread over Michigan.
Alabama has improved each week. We're putting faith in Nick Saban with a month to prepare, as he has a 16-6 bowl game record compared to Jim Harbaugh’s 2-7 record.
These two teams are pretty similar. Both love to run the ball and play defense, and both defenses rank top-15 nationally in Success Rate Allowed.
Michigan has yet to face a dual-threat quarterback like Milroe, and we think Alabama has the advantage with his ability to move the pocket and throw downfield, something not many Big Ten offenses have.
The Tide rank sixth in pass explosiveness, so they should generate chunk plays and jump out to an early lead.
And the Wolverines aren't built to play from behind, ranking 118th in pass rate. They want to run the ball but come in at just 45th in Rush Success Rate and will be without right guard and captain Zak Zinter. Plus, they're facing the nation's 19th-best rush defense.
The Tide have arguably the nation's best defense when fully healthy. With a month off, everyone should be 100%.
Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell should cause headaches for the Michigan offensive line, while Michigan's receivers should have a tough time against the elite cornerback duo of Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold.
We expect Milroe and the Tide to come locked in and make some big plays to propel the Tide to a victory. Alabama's defense should stop Blake Corum and the run game, forcing pressure on McCarthy.
But with Alabama's elite cornerbacks, we expect McCarthy to struggle, too.
We're buying the Crimson Tide +1.5.
Pick: Alabama +1.5
Michigan vs Alabama Over/Under
Over 44.5 | 9 Picks |
Pass | 3 Picks |
Under 44.5 | 1 Pick |
Over 44.5
Alabama and Michigan come into this game with outstanding offenses.
Michigan ranks ninth nationally in Success Rate, fifth in Havoc Allowed and 10th in Points per Opportunity. Alabama, meanwhile, comes in at 37th in Success Rate, 42nd in Havoc Allowed and 10th in Points per Opportunity.
But despite their elite offensive metrics, I doubt the Wolverines will create as many explosive plays as the Tide. Michigan ranks 92nd in explosiveness, while the Tide rank 15th.
We should see plenty of ground-and-pound action, as both teams sit top-20 nationally in rush rate.
Both offenses also take their time, ranking bottom-30 nationally in seconds per play.
Good offenses like keeping the ball on the ground and playing slow against good run defenses — Michigan ranks eighth nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed, and Alabama ranks 19th.
Plus, Michigan shut out its Big Ten championship opponent, so this seems like it should be a defensive slugfest. Right?
To quote a college football legend: Not so fast, my friend.
I think Alabama should score plenty on Monday. The Wolverines haven't played an offense even close to the level of the Crimson Tide. Michigan played one of the nation's softest Power 5 schedules, and the Wolverines cake-walked to the Big Ten Championship, only to play an Iowa team that lacks a functional offense.
I think Milroe’s dual-threat ability will give Michigan’s defense fits, and I expect Tommy Rees to give the Wolverines some unfamiliar looks that free up Alabama’s playmakers for easy chunk plays.
There's a reason strength of schedule is important when evaluating the College Football Playoffs. Alabama has been punched in the mouth by great teams already, and we know know the Tide can respond. Georgia may be the second-best team in the country, and the Tide's offense still rolled to 27 points.
I’m expecting the same on Monday.
Michigan’s offense is good, and the Wolverines will score. But I think they'll be playing from behind, forcing them to move quicker and throw the ball.
My colleagues and I will take the over.
Pick: Over 44.5
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