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Minnesota vs Nebraska Odds, Picks | Saturday NCAAF Betting Guide

Minnesota vs Nebraska Odds, Picks | Saturday NCAAF Betting Guide article feature image
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Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan (left) and PJ Fleck (right).

Minnesota vs Nebraska Odds

Saturday, Nov. 5
12 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Minnesota Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-14.5
-110
45
-110o / -110u
-675
Nebraska Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+14.5
-110
44.5
-110o / -110u
+500
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Minnesota travels to Nebraska for an early afternoon Big Ten West matchup.

Minnesota enters this game with a 5-3 record and is coming off of a 31-0 win over Rutgers. The Golden Gophers are 5-3 against the spread and have gone over the total in four games.

Nebraska enters this game with a 3-5 record and is riding a two-game losing streak. The Cornhuskers hold a 2-6 record against the spread and have gone under in five games.

It will be a cool, windy day in Lincoln when this game kicks off. Winds will range from 9.5 to 11 miles per hour, which could have an impact on the passing game and special teams. There’s also a slight chance for rain.


Minnesota Golden Gophers

P.J. Fleck’s Golden Gophers have a 2-3 record in conference play after winning their three nonconference games.

They’re averaging 31.9 points per game, 4.73 points per scoring opportunity and 6.2 yards per play. They also own a 50% Success Rate, while the O-line ranks 27th in Havoc Allowed at just 14%.

Despite their Success Rate and ability to finish drives, their scoring is slightly limited due to their Pace, ranking 129th nationally.

Tanner Morgan leads the Gophers offense that averages 23.5 pass attempts per game. Morgan is completing 66.9% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt. However, he’s struggled to keep possession with five interceptions. As a unit, Minnesota has a 48% Passing Success Rate (21st nationally) and has averaged 2.63 20-plus yard passes per game.

Minnesota ranks 11th nationally with 44.8 rush attempts per game. Mohamed Ibrahim leads the way with 170 attempts for 955 yards and 13 touchdowns. As a team, Minnesota has a 52% Rushing Success Rate (10th nationally). Its offensive line generates 3.49 Line Yards per attempt (16th) and has allowed a 12.2% Stuff Rate.

The Gophers rank fourth in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game, as they allow 4.9 yards per play. This unit also owns a 36% Success Rate to rank 16th nationally, along with a mark of 3.29 points per opportunity, which ranks 23rd.

They sit third in explosive plays Aalowed with just 18 plays over 20 yards allowed over eight games.

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Mickey Joseph has added some life back to Nebraska, but he’s still struggling with a 2-3 record.

Nebraska is averaging 27.1 points per game, 4.0 points per opportunity and put up 6.0 yards per play. The Cornhuskers own a 45% Success Rate and average 24.2 seconds per play, which ranks 27th nationally.

Starting quarterback Casey Thompson is unlikely to play, which likely puts Chubba Purdy under center for the Cornhuskers. For his career, Purdy has completed 53.8% of his passes for an average of 4.7 yards per attempt. As a unit, Nebraska has averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game and a 44 percent Passing Success Rate.

Anthony Grant leads Nebraska with 156 rush attempts, 743 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The Cornhuskers own a 46% Rushing Success Rate (50th) on 3.9 yards per attempt.

Their offensive line generates an average of 3.35 Line Yards per attempt (34th) and has allowed a 13.2% Stuff Rate.

Nebraska’s defense has struggled this season, as it has given up 30.6 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. The Cornhuskers have allowed a 47% Success Rate, which ranks 114th nationally, and they allow 4.13 points per opportunity (96th).

They’ve given up an average of 5.1 20-plus yard plays per game.


Minnesota vs Nebraska Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and Nebraska match up statistically:

Minnesota Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 10 108
Line Yards 16 92
Pass Success 21 106
Pass Blocking** 38 39
Havoc 15 119
Finishing Drives 16 96
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Nebraska Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 50 15
Line Yards 34 37
Pass Success 51 27
Pass Blocking** 127 111
Havoc 88 93
Finishing Drives 58 23
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 12 64
PFF Coverage 4 81
SP+ Special Teams 59 101
Seconds per Play 31.0 (129) 24.2 (27)
Rush Rate 65.6% (7) 54.4% (59)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Minnesota vs Nebraska Betting Pick

As of writing, Minnesota is favored by 16 points. Sharps seem to be backing the Gophers, as 60% of the money is on them despite only 25% of the tickets landing on that side.

But my preference in this game isn’t on the spread.

Without Thompson, it seems like a safe assumption that Nebraska will play a more conservative offense. Whether that features a slower pace, a higher rush rate or a combination of the two, it limits the scoring potential for a Nebraska offense facing a Minnesota defense that holds statistical advantages across the board.

If you pair that with the Gophers’ already slow pace of play and the windy conditions, scoring may be at a premium.

My preferred play in this game is under 46.5, and I would play it down to 45.

Pick: Under 46.5 ⋅ Play to 45

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