The Minnesota Golden Gophers take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, Oregon. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
Oregon is favored by 25 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2800. The total is set at 44 points.
Here’s my Minnesota vs. Oregon prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 14.
Minnesota vs Oregon Prediction
- Minnesota vs. Oregon Pick: Minnesota +24 or Better
My Oregon vs. Minnesota best bet is on the Golden Gophers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Minnesota vs Oregon Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +1250 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -2800 |
- Minnesota vs Oregon point spread: Oregon -25 (-110), Minnesota +25 (-110)
- Minnesota vs Oregon over/under: 44 (-110o / -110u)
- Minnesota vs Oregon moneyline: Minnesota +1250, Oregon -2800
Minnesota vs Oregon Preview
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Gophers Face an Uphill Battle
When the glass is half full, Minnesota is 6-3 on the season and will, for the sixth straight full season (adjusting for 2020), play in a bowl game.
But when the glass is half empty, Minnesota has been taken to the woodshed by quality opponents.
One-score wins over Purdue and Michigan State are certainly better than one-score losses to Purdue and Michigan State, but the Gophers are 0-2 against Ohio State and Iowa by a combined score of 83-6.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, Oregon is more akin to the Ohio States and Iowas than it is to the Purdues and Michigan States.
Running back Darius Taylor is again struggling with an injury. In 2024, Taylor nearly breached 1,000 yards, and in 2023, he rushed for 800 yards in just five games.
But this year, he's received 15 carries twice and only appeared in six games. Fame Ijeboi finally appeared to be a viable option, breaking 100 yards against Michigan State. At 4.7 yards per carry, Ijeboi is far from an offensive spark plug.
Taylor is questionable heading into the game at Oregon.
Quarterback Drake Lindsey has been perfectly fine and not an ounce more. It's a shame that he and the run game have been underwhelming behind what is still a strong offensive line.
Lindsey is easily disrupted into taking too many sacks, which was on display against Iowa when just nine quarterback pressures turned into four sacks.
It's an offense that doesn't finish enough quality drives, and PJ Fleck hasn't gambled enough on late downs. Although Minnesota is 3-0 in one-score games, those contests against Big Ten bottom feeders probably shouldn't be one-score games to begin with.
Defensively, Minnesota has some Dudes. Edge rusher Anthony Smith ranks third in the Big Ten with 33 pressures and an absurd 11 of those turned into sacks (most in the Big Ten).
The unit as a whole, though, allows too many scores in the red zone, ranking 44th nationally in points per drive allowed. Individually, there are good players, but the sum is not greater than the parts themselves.
This far into the season, we know what Minnesota is. It's a team capable of handling business against lesser competition, but it is multiple standard deviations away from the top of the conference.
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Seeking Statement Win Amid Injury Concerns
Oregon has an injury problem.
What started as losing a star wide receiver in the offseason has recently snowballed into several starters potentially missing time.
Phenom receiver Dakorean Moore (Oregon's leading receiver) missed last week's game at Iowa alongside tight end Kenyon Sadiq (an NFL prospect). During the game, the next-leading receiver, Gary Bryant Jr., and starting right tackle, Alex Markey, left the game and didn't return.
Markey won't play this week, and the other three are questionable.
In previous years, Oregon has obliterated opponents and left almost no recognizable part behind.
Although the average point margin this season is the fourth-best in the country (+22.3), many of those blowouts came against feeble opponents like Oklahoma State (0-8 vs. FBS competition), Oregon State (1-8 vs. FBS competition), and Rutgers (2-5 in the Big Ten).
The Ducks field an elite offensive line and one of the best run games in the country. They lead the nation in Rush Success Rate and average a nation-best 6.4 yards per carry.
That efficiency comes in spite of 2,900 career-yard rusher Makhi Hughes deciding to redshirt and transfer early in the year after coming in from Tulane.
Veteran Noah Whittington averages a ridiculous 8.4 yards per attempt on 68 carries, while true freshman Jordon Davison leads the team with 10 rushing touchdowns.
It's such a strong run game that a dynamic season from quarterback Dante Moore almost comes secondarily.
Against the pass, Oregon is as good as anybody in the country. Another true freshman, corner Brandon Finney Jr., has emerged as a legitimate star in the secondary at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds.
Dillon Thieneman has been as impactful a safety transfer as almost anyone, save for Caleb Downs at Ohio State.
But Oregon lacks pop on the defensive line this year. It's a unit that can be driven off the ball despite fielding high-end talent like A'Mauri Washington and Matayo Uiagalelei. The Ducks' defense ranks 71st nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and in the bottom 30 in stuff rate.
The final stretch of the season is tough. After hosting Minnesota, Oregon hosts USC and visits rival Washington. It should be favored in all three, but Lanning & Co. are on the outside looking in for the 2025 Big Ten Championship game after a loss to Indiana.
That Indiana loss marked just the ninth home loss for the Ducks since 2014.
Minnesota vs Oregon Pick, Betting Analysis
Oregon opened as a 23.5-point favorite, and the line grew to as high as -26.5 throughout the week.
Power ratings agree with the move.
But with a low total of 44 and the multiple injuries to starters, the line may have moved too far.
For Minnesota, Taylor is questionable, and I err on the side of him not going, given his previous injury history. When Taylor plays a full game, it's certainly a boost to the Gophers' offense (24-6 win over Nebraska, 23-10 over Buffalo). But he's played so few full games this season that I'm not sure Taylor should be factored into the line.
Weather and injuries stunted Oregon's last two results – a 21-7 home win over Wisconsinand an 18-16 thriller at Iowa. Any victory at Kinnick Stadium should be considered impressive.
But the Ducks return home after a physical and emotionally thrilling game to play on a short week. At the same time, Minnesota comes off a bye — PJ Fleck is 13-4 straight up at Minnesota coming off a bye and 4-2 against the spread since 2021.
Oregon also closes out the season with a couple of tough games against West Coast teams, USC and Washington. It can't afford to lose any conference games, but currently, Oregon sits outside the Big Ten championship window.
So, why push banged-up guys to play in a game where the Ducks are 25-point favorites?
Although Lanning is good about not letting his team overlook opponents (he loves a manufactured disrespect storyline), Oregon did go 0-2 against the spread before playing Ohio State and Washington last season.
There are just too many points being laid for a conference game with a low total, Minnesota with a rest advantage, Oregon battling injuries, and a stretch of critical games upcoming.
It's gross, but here we are.
Pick: Minnesota +24 or Better
Minnesota vs Oregon Betting Trends
