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The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN.
Texas is favored by -21 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1650. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Mississippi State vs. Texas prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Mississippi St vs Texas Prediction
- Mississippi State vs. Texas Pick: Texas -20.5 (-106, FanDuel)
My Texas vs. Mississippi State best bet is on Texas to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Mississippi State vs Texas Odds
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -114 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | +890 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -106 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | -1450 |
- Mississippi State vs Texas point spread: Texas -21 (-110 ), Mississippi St +21 (-110)
- Mississippi State vs Texas over/under: 50.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Mississippi State vs Texas moneyline: Mississippi St +950, Texas -1650
Mississippi State vs Texas College Football Preview
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
Mississippi State goes to Austin as a team that has lost its footing, and it will do so without its quarterback. Kamario Taylor, who threw for 1,460 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions and was averaging nearly 300 yards a game when healthy, is out for the rest of the season with a toe injury that requires surgery.
Taylor hurt his toe in September and never fully recovered, left the Oklahoma game in the first quarter after going 2-of-5 for 10 yards, and the school has announced he is expected to make a full recovery. That leaves the offense with Billy Puckett, a former walk-on who started at LSU and has completed 33 of 50 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions across his two games.
The Bulldogs started the season 4-0 and have lost three straight since, to Alabama, to LSU by a 31-0 shutout, and to Oklahoma 23-15. The Oklahoma game is a good snapshot of where this team is.
Mississippi State trailed 17-0 after three quarters, converted just 1 of 11 third downs, was sacked four times and turned the ball over twice, with Puckett fumbling at the Oklahoma 4-yard line and throwing an interception in the end zone, before a late touchdown made the final score closer than the game was. They've turned it over seven times in their last three games.
The run game has been the one steady piece, with Fluff Bothwell going for 111 yards on 17 carries against the Sooners, adding to a very consistent season on the ground.
The defense ranks 105th in opponent success rate and is without linebacker Jalen Smith, who is done for the season after surgery. Jeff Lebby's team is also coming off a game in which it gave up 467 yards.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
Texas, now ranked No. 11, has had a season of swings. The Longhorns beat Ohio State 24-23, but they lost 27-24 to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and 27-24 at home to Florida, a game in which they managed 272 total yards and Arch Manning was sacked five times.
They answered last Saturday with a 34-27 win over then-No. 7 Ole Miss, a game they led 24-3 at halftime before the Rebels tied it in the fourth quarter. Manning threw a touchdown pass and ran for two scores, the first rushing touchdowns of his season, and Raleek Brown ran for 157 yards. The Longhorns also racked up 14 penalties for 121 yards in that game, a season high, and had several special teams breakdowns.
The identity of this team is its defense. Texas was allowing 17.8 points a game before the Ole Miss game while averaging 30.2, and one analyst has its defense first nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, which is why the offense hasn't needed to be perfect.
The injury report is mixed. Running back Hollywood Smothers and receiver Cam Coleman, who left the Ole Miss game with a shoulder injury, are off the report and available, and receiver Kaliq Lockett is expected to play.
On the other side, left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon, freshman edge Richard Wesley is out with a high ankle sprain, and Colin Simmons, who leads the nation with 10.5 sacks, is doubtful with a right ankle sprain.
Mississippi State vs Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
The quarterback change is the biggest factor in this number. Taylor was the engine of Mississippi State's offense, and without him, the Bulldogs turned to a former walk-on who hasn't produced at a similar level.
The sample is small, and the results are not encouraging: Mississippi State was shut out 31-0 at LSU with Puckett starting and scored 15 against Oklahoma after he took over, going 1-for-11 on third down in that game.
The Texas defense, the best in the country by opponent-adjusted EPA per play, is the toughest possible matchup for an offense already prone to turnovers and sacks. A team like the Longhorns doesn't need to score 40 to cover 19.5.
Although that is within range for Texas, which scored 34 against Ole Miss, and the Mississippi State defense is a good place for the offense to get right.
The Bulldogs rank 105th in opponent success rate, gave up 467 yards to Oklahoma, and are missing a starting linebacker, which is exactly the kind of defense that Brown and Manning can run on.
Back the Longhorns to roll at home.
Pick: Texas -20.5 (-106, FanDuel)
