The Missouri State Bears take on the Texas A&M Aggies in College Station, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN.
Texas A&M is favored by -40.5 points on the spread. The total is set at 53.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. Texas A&M prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 5, 2026.
Missouri State vs Texas A&M Prediction
- Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Pick: Texas A&M 1H TT Over 28 or Better
My Texas A&M vs. Missouri State best bet is on the over for the Aggies' first-half team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri State vs Texas A&M Odds
| Missouri St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+40.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-40.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | |
- Missouri State vs Texas A&M point spread: Texas A&M -40.5 (-110), Missouri State +40.5 (-110)
- Missouri State vs Texas A&M over/under: 53.5 (-110 / -110)
- Missouri State vs Texas A&M moneyline: Missouri State N/A, Texas A&M N/A
Missouri State vs Texas A&M Preview
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: Poached Bear Anyone?
It was a pretty good start for Missouri State in its FBS debut last season.
The Bears went 7-5, enough to secure a bowl bid thanks to a granted petition to the NCAA. But that year was enough to get the entire coaching staff and most of the roster poached; just five total starters return.
To counter, Missouri State hired SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods as the next head coach, and he brought in UTEP offensive coordinator Mark Cala and Auburn analyst Jack Curtis as defensive coordinator.
Along with Cala comes UTEP quarterback Skyler Locklear, who was named the starter for the season. At UTEP, Locklear dealt with a significant deficiency in talent, but he wasn't any good himself — he's likely one of the 10 or so worst starters in the country.
Last year, Locklear completed 55% of his passes for just 1,400 yards (seven starts), 13 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Fortunately, Woods retained the team's top receiving option, Jmariyae Robinson, who should be the best receiver Locklear's had in his career.
There's a ton of inexperience across the board, both along the offensive line and on defense. For a team ready to go play in one of the loudest environments in sports, Kyle Field, that's of significant concern.
According to multiple appraisals, including consensus power ratings, this looks like a bottom-15 FBS roster, if not worse. Fortunately, Missouri State can stack wins with a talent-deficient lineup in Conference USA. But against an SEC foe on the road, this is going to be a pretty ugly start to the year.
Last time against a Power Conference opponent — with a better roster and more experienced coaching staff — Missouri State lost 73-13. It lost the yardage battle, 597-224, with a defense that wasn't that bad in the grand scheme of things (only one team would surpass 28 points the rest of the regular season) and against a defense that wasn't nationally elite.
Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview: Only Going to Get Tougher
Let's call it like it is: Texas A&M took advantage of a bad schedule, notched a couple of impressive wins (30-3 comeback against South Carolina, 41-40 win at Notre Dame), and then fizzled to nothing in the biggest games of the year, its final two at Texas and against Miami in the playoff.
Marcel Reed commanded significant Heisman attention, and his odds even dipped below +1000 at points last year — what I called a phony run at the time.
This isn't a scathing review about Texas A&M for 2026. In fact, the Aggies should be pretty competitive in the SEC with a multi-million dollar roster and one of the better skill corps in the conference.
Reed should be effective again, and the three starting receivers — Mario Craver, Isaiah Horton, and Ashton Bethel-Roman — are very dangerous. Top rusher Reuben Owens is back, and head coach Mike Elko bolstered the offensive line with a pair of seasoned SEC starters. The defensive line is nasty thanks to the addition of Northwestern transfer Anto Saka, and the secondary is as good as you'll find in the SEC.
Both coordinators left, but coach Mike Elko hired internally. The system should stay very consistent with what Colin Klein (Kansas State) built, and the defense is Elko's.
But the schedule gets much harder. A&M travels to Alabama, to LSU, and to Oklahoma, and hosts Texas to close the year; Arizona State in the non-conference brings the Aggies up to 10 Power Conference foes.
One thing to note: Elko is 1-9 ATS against non-conference foes at A&M, the one win being that outright upset of Notre Dame last year. 42-24 and 44-22 wins over UTSA and Utah State, respectively, weren't overly dominant.
A 2024 26-20 close call with Bowling Green was abysmal. These are the 2026 Aggies with lots of veteran returners, but it's a disservice not to at least acknowledge Elko's track record against lesser non-conference foes.
Missouri State vs Texas A&M Pick, Betting Analysis
An opening line of Texas A&M -38.5 wasn't quite enough, and the market bet it up to -40.5.
Based on team totals, Texas A&M projects to come away a 46.5-6.5 winner (heavy -160 juice to Under 7 points for Missouri State). Essentially, your wager on the Bears is whether they score a touchdown, with +124 odds for Yes.
Klein ran a slow pace at Texas A&M, and it doesn't appear new offensive coordinator Holmon Wiggins will turn up the tempo much. The Aggies finished 106th in seconds per play (27.8) and had some notably slow starts last year (21-10 at the half against UTSA, South Carolina game aside).
The question is, tempo or not, can Missouri State do anything to stop Texas A&M?
With so many returnees, A&M's offense should be off and running from the start. The combination of Reed, Owens, and that receiving trio will play the entire first half, and that's enough to turn Missouri State into a fine paste.
Going up against this possibly-elite unit is a bunch of inexperienced and unproven transfers, pretty much all of whom are brand new to the school and scheme. Even if A&M runs a methodical pace and leans heavily into the ground game, it's unlikely Missouri State gets a stop, barring sloppy turnovers.
This is one of the biggest disparities in roster talent between FBS foes this weekend. Four Texas A&M possessions and this bet gets to the window.
Pick: Texas A&M 1H TT Over 28 or Better
