All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Athens, Ohio, and Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money that can be won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
With a sneaky fun slate, here are five games I have circled for Week 4. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, Sept. 20.
Ball State vs UConn Pick
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
The third time is the charm for me backing the 2025 UConn Huskies. I’ve gotten a push, a loss, and all that’s left is the win.
Aside from Kent State, I believe Ball State is the worst team in the country.
The Cardinals rank 128th nationally in Success Rate allowed despite having played two below-average offenses and an FCS school. Last week, New Hampshire put up nearly 400 yards of offense and had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win.
The Cardinals have zero passing attack with quarterback Kiael Kelly. The only way they can move the ball is with Qua Ashley breaking a big, explosive run.
Meanwhile, UConn ranks in the top 25 nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
The Huskies’ defense has been up and down, but Saturday is a get-right spot for them against a one-dimensional offense. They looked good against Syracuse in Week 1 before a letdown spot last week against Delaware.
UConn quarterback Joe Fagnano has been terrific, averaging 288 yards per game with five touchdowns and no interceptions. His top target, Skyler Bell, is among the best Group of 5 receivers and should shred the Ball State secondary.
I also expect the running game to cook behind the Cam Edwards-Mel Brown duo. Edwards is averaging over six yards per carry, while Brown is averaging nearly 10.
After back-to-back frustrating losses for the Huskies, they should come out here and get right against Ball State, taking out some of their frustrations.
Pick: UConn -21 (-110, bet365)
Delaware vs FIU Pick
| Delaware Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
This game has all the makings of a sneaky, fun Over.
Delaware quarterback Zach Marker got hurt in the season opener, but Nick Minicucci might be better. He made five starts last season when Marker got hurt, so he is comfortable running the offense. He has come in in relief and thrown for 282 yards per game with five touchdowns and just one turnover.
Minicucci also has a pair of pass-catching weapons in Kyre Duplessis and Jake Thaw.
The rushing attack has been tremendous. The Blue Hens rank 11th nationally in Rush Success Rate with tailback Jo Silver averaging 8.1 yards per carry. He has been excellent on the ground this season, and Minicucci is dangerous with his legs (four rushing touchdowns on the year).
Defense, however, has not been good for the Blue Hens.
They rank 123rd nationally in Success Rate allowed and have been especially bad against the pass. Colorado had success with three different quarterbacks, and UConn shredded the Hens last week.
Keyone Jenkins and the FIU offense have been inconsistent, but the Panthers have talent, and facing a lousy defense could be what they need to get going. The Panthers are averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground with star running back Kejon Owens averaging over seven yards per carry.
Both of these teams have been terrific at running the ball. They have both been less effective through the air, but that is where this matchup should help both offenses, as each team fields a terrible pass defense.
Pick: Over 55 (-110, Caesars)
Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech Pick
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| LA Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -170 |
I was high on the Southern Miss rebuild coming into the season and am not all that surprised at the 2-1 start, as I expected a quick turnaround under Charles Huff.
However, I am more impressed with Louisiana Tech’s start to the season.
The Bulldogs held their own against LSU in Baton Rouge, losing 23-7. They blew the doors off of New Mexico State last week, winning 49-14 as 10-point favorites.
The Bulldogs are 3-0 against the spread, and I don’t think the market has fully caught up yet.
After finishing with the best defense in Conference USA last season, Louisiana Tech once again looks elite on that side of the ball. They lead the conference in total defense and are allowing just 4.7 yards per play. The Bulldogs rank 32nd nationally in Success Rate allowed and are top 25 in the country at defending the run.
Sonny Cumbie has continued to juggle quarterbacks Trey Kukuk and Blake Baker through the first three weeks, but the offense has leaned on the ground game. Five different players are averaging at least 24 yards per game on the ground, including both quarterbacks. Clay Thevenin has led the way in the backfield and is averaging over six yards per carry.
Louisiana Tech will continue to lean on the running game and read option attack against a Southern Miss offense that ranks 128th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed.
The Bulldogs were the beneficiaries of Charles Huff leaving for Southern Miss after they received a bowl bid when Marshall dropped out because all of its players left. I don’t think they will be looking to say thank you here, and I like them to cover at home against the Eagles.
Pick: Louisiana Tech -3.5 (-110, bet365)
