All the media wants to talk about is the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Harrisonburg, Virginia, and Boca Raton, Florida.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money you can win on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are three games I have circled for Week 13. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, Nov. 22.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | James Madison -13.5 |
  | 3 p.m. | UConn -7 |
  | 7 p.m. | New Mexico -3.5 |
James Madison -13.5 vs. Washington State
1 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
When the College Football Playoff Rankings were announced on Tuesday, it was confirmed to everybody what we already knew.
James Madison is not getting much respect at 9-1.
Not only do the Dukes have to win out and win the Sun Belt, but they also need to destroy teams.
And while Washington State is no longer a Power 4 program, it is likely still viewed in higher regard than the Sun Belt opponents James Madison currently has on its resume.
If they want any chance of reaching the playoffs, the Dukes need to blow the doors off the Cougars here.
Washington State is coming off an easy win in a great situational spot against Louisiana Tech. But now the Cougars have to make the same difficult cross-country trip from Washington to Harrisonburg, Virginia.
In its past four games, James Madison has won by margins of 36, 32,12, and 48. The Dukes know they have to step on the throat.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett looks better and better as he gets further away from last year’s injury. He has 16 touchdown passes on the year and is using his legs more and more. He has 12 rushing touchdowns on the season and has double-digit rush attempts in four straight games.
With Barnett’s legs and a deep running back room led by Wayne Knight, the Dukes rank seventh nationally in rushing offense and have 18 rushing touchdowns across the past four games.
Washington State ranks outside of the top 100 in Success Rate allowed and has struggled to slow down rushing and passing attacks.
At the same time, the offense has been pedestrian all season, failing to score more than 28 points since Week 2.
James Madison’s defense is the top-ranked unit in the country in Success Rate allowed. The Dukes are elite at defending the run and the pass while creating a ton of Havoc.
The one area teams have been able to get this Duke's defense has been with big plays, but Washington State ranks 131st nationally in Explosiveness.
I don’t see how Washington State moves the ball, and the James Madison offense is firing on all cylinders.
Bob Chesney knows his team needs to run up the score, and that should continue here.
Pick: James Madison -14 or Better
UConn -7 at Florida Atlantic
3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
One of the most impressive streaks in college football came to an end last week as UConn’s Joe Fagnano finally threw his first interception after 385 pass attempts – on a tipped ball.
Even with the blemish, Fagnano has been fantastic this season, tossing 25 touchdown passes and leading the Huskies to an 8-3 record.
Wide receiver Skyler Bell leads the nation with 93 catches and 13 touchdowns, but the offense is well-balanced with running back Cam Edwards already over 1,000 yards.
UConn ranks top 25 nationally in scoring and total offense, presenting a brutal matchup for FAU’s below-average defense.
Teams that can run the ball have shredded the Owls, and Edwards should be in for a big day on the ground.
For Florida Atlantic, this is a terrible matchup.
The Owls' offense ranks 103rd nationally in Success Rate but 11th in Explosiveness. They don’t move the ball consistently and exclusively rely on creating big plays. They rank third nationally in passing rate. The Owls don’t even try to run the ball, and when they do, they don’t do it well.
Unfortunately for the Owls, UConn's defense is elite at preventing big plays.
The Huskies rank 14th in Explosiveness allowed, keeping everything in front of them. They’re also much better against the pass than they are at defending the run.
If you want to beat UConn’s defense, you must attack them on the ground, but FAU is not capable of doing that. Trying to rely on big plays through the air plays perfectly into UConn’s strength.
UConn does all the little things right. The Huskies protect the football, don’t take penalties, and they cash in on scoring chances. The offense is elite, and the defense has a great matchup to limit big plays.
Pick: UConn -7 or Better
New Mexico -3.5 at Air Force
7 p.m. ET ⋅ CBSSN
Disaster struck Air Force last week when quarterback Liam Szarka went down with a season-ending injury.
For starters, the Falcons have not been great. They are 3-7, lost both rivalry games, and have nothing left to play for.
But at least they were fun to watch on offense with Szarka. He accounted for 129.4 passing yards and 92.2 rushing yards per game running this triple option attack. He leads the Mountain West with 13 rushing touchdowns. Nobody else on the Falcons has more than four. He is their entire offense and an unspeakable loss.
Especially given how disastrous this defense is. Air Force ranks 134th nationally in Success Rate allowed. The Falcons are allowing 7.4 yards per play, and teams have been able to pick whether to beat them through the air or on the ground, often doing both.
New Mexico has a balanced offense with Jack Layne at quarterback and a three-headed backfield of DJ McKinney, Damon Blankston, and Scottre Humphrey. Jason Eck is an offense wizard and should have no problem scheming up points against this defense.
Meanwhile, the Lobos’ defense has been playing well of late. They have been dominant against the run, holding three of their past four opponents under 90 rushing yards.
New Mexico is still alive for the Mountain West Championship game, while Air Force has nothing left to play for and just lost their starting quarterback.
The drop-off to Kemper Hodges is massive, and I don’t think this number has adjusted enough.
Pick: New Mexico -4 or Better
