The Week 3 slate rolls on with Stuckey's three college football picks for the afternoon slate, including a prediction for an all-Florida battle between USF and Miami.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 3, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 4-3 (57.1%)
- Overall: 173-126-2 (57.9%)
3 NCAAF Predictions for Week 3 Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | Delaware +10.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | Arkansas State +21 |
  | 4:30 p.m. | Miami -16.5 |
Delaware +10.5 vs. UConn
3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
This is a tough spot for UConn after a heartbreaking overtime loss at Syracuse.
It was an inspired effort, but I'm super low on Syracuse, which came in pretty beat up following a marathon game against Tennessee.
Coming into the season, I was a bit lower than the market on the Huskies, who had to replace two excellent tackles and plenty of production from an extremely underrated defense.
While that side of the ball still looks solid through two games under a very savvy defensive coordinator who mixes coverages and line stunts at a very high level, I still have questions.
The Huskies could be a bit deflated, but the Blue Hens should come out with plenty of enthusiasm for their first-ever home matchup as an FBS team against an FBS opponent.
This is a very experienced Delaware squad that brought back a ton of production from last season. The quarterback play is solid with Nick Minicucci, who threw for over 300 yards last week at Colorado.
That game played out a lot closer than the final score (24-3) indicates. Delaware finished with only two fewer yards (398-396) and actually averaged more yards per play (6.0-5.7).
Not only did the Buffaloes benefit from a quarterback surprise, but they also won the turnover battle 2-0 with the Blue Hens having four drives finish in Colorado territory without points (stopped on fourth, fumble, missed field goal, interception).
Colorado also scored a touchdown after a Delaware leaping penalty on a field goal attempt.
All things considered, the Blue Hens fared quite well in a tough spot against a P4 team. I project this closer to 8, so I happily took the 10.5. Just please guard Skyler Bell.
Notable Nugget
UConn won nine games last season, but its only two road wins came against two horrific teams in UAB and UMass by one possession each.
Pick: Delaware +10.5 (Play to +10)
Arkansas State +21 vs. Iowa State
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
This is a tough spot for Iowa State following a hard-fought, emotional win over in-state rival Iowa, which marked its first win over the Hawkeyes in Ames since 2011.
The Cyclones are also playing their fourth game already, with the first coming in Dublin. Fatigue could be an issue, especially considering head coach Matt Campbell said this week he's worried about the state of his team from a physical standpoint.
Could that lead to more rest and maybe starters getting pulled sooner than usual with a lead? It's certainly possible.
In fairness, Arkansas State is also coming off an emotional game against in-state big brother Arkansas, but I'm not worried about energy and focus levels here with the Red Wolves getting to host a top-15 P4 team that beat them, 52-3.
The last time Iowa State walked into this exact scenario, it lost outright at Ohio following the Cy-Hawk rivalry but did have food poisoning issues as only a short favorite.
Now, the Arkansas State defense is just dreadful, and its pace on offense might not help matters.
But Matt Campbell does sometimes go completely vanilla against inferior opponents, and this Iowa State offense is nowhere near as explosive as last season.
Although, in fairness, many of those spots have come against FCS foes. He has gone 8-2 ATS as a favorite of more than 20 vs. FBS teams, while Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones is just 2-11 ATS (15.4%) when catching 20-plus.
Lastly, has any team's wins aged worse than Iowa State's this season? It started off the season with a coin-flip win over Kansas State by three. The 1-2 Wildcats could easily be 0-3 with losses as 17- and 28-point favorites.
The Cyclones then dominated a very down South Dakota squad that lost last week as a 17-point favorite vs Lamar. Coyote quarterback Aidan Bouman essentially finished with the same stat line against Lamar as he did against Iowa State. That team may be way down at the FCS level.
And their most recent victory came against an Iowa offense that brought in a new quarterback who has the fewest passing yards through two games among any Big Ten signal-callers since 1995. The Hawkeyes certainly don't look vastly improved so far.
Notable Nugget
If you're curious, Sun Belt teams hosting current P4 teams have gone 23-18-2 (56.1%) ATS since 2005. Historically, G5 teams hosting power-conference foes have covered at a 51% clip, so it's nothing noteworthy.
Pick: Arkansas State +21 or Better
Miami -16.5 vs. USF
4:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
I hate to fade my beloved Bulls, who I backed preseason to win the American. They undoubtedly have the best resume in all of college football to date with a pair of ranked wins vs. Boise State and Florida.
However, I have to get in front of the train in what is a brutal situational spot.
While USF comes off two massive games, Miami will come into this one riding high after a win over Notre Dame, followed by an early-season "bye week" against Bethune-Cookman.
I wouldn't be surprised if USF wears down hard in the second half, as it has done in past seasons against P4 competition.
I was super impressed by the Hurricanes on both sides of the ball in their opener vs. Notre Dame. The defense looks substantially improved under new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman and an influx of transfer talent on the back end.
Miami's dynamic duo at defensive end should also cause all kinds of problems for the South Florida offensive line.
On the other side of the ball, Carson Beck looked spectacular (and healthy) in his season debut. He also gets to work behind a dominant offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage and has a bevy of explosive weapons on the outside that should win their one-on-one matchups.
I'm not here to shortchange what USF has accomplished so far this season.
The Bulls are the rightful favorite as of this moment to grab the G5 playoff spot, but they did get a bit fortunate vs. Boise State with turnovers and caught a Billy Napier team taking them lightly last week.
Lastly, USF already got the two wins it needs for the College Football Playoff. Now, it basically just needs to stay healthy and win the American.
In order to do that, it might be best to not run quarterback Byrum Brown as much in this matchup, and USF likely just can’t run the ball with its backs against Miami, which will be able to get pressure with ease without blitzing on obvious passing downs.
I do have a ton of respect for Alex Golesh, who plays to win these types of games. He's not going to get conservative and will try to keep it within a respectable margin, which increases the chances of a Miami beatdown in an ideal situational spot.
Notable Nugget
Hopefully, Mario Cristobal, who has performed poorly in the past as a large favorite, doesn't screw this up.
He has gone just 11-19 ATS (36.7%) as a favorite of more than two touchdowns, but one of those covers did come against USF last season in a 50-15 victory.
Pick: Miami -16.5 (Play to -17)
