The New Mexico Lobos take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on FS1.
Boise State is favored by 16 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. New Mexico, meanwhile, enters as a +16 underdog and is +500 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 58.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. Boise State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
New Mexico vs Boise State Prediction
- New Mexico vs. Boise State Pick: Boise State -16.5
My Boise State vs. New Mexico best bet is on the Broncos to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs Boise State Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
- New Mexico vs Boise State Spread: Boise State -16, New Mexico +16
- New Mexico vs Boise State Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- New Mexico vs Boise State Moneyline: New Mexico +500, Boise State -700
New Mexico vs Boise State College Football Betting Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Hard to Overlook Weaknesses
New Mexico has generated some significant positive momentum this season based on its play in the opener against Michigan, followed up by three straight wins, highlighted by a thrashing of UCLA in the Rose Bowl in Week 3.
The Lobos offense is much further ahead of schedule than originally projected, and their defense has come up big on numerous occasions to limit opponent scoring chances.
This is a team I really want to love, but there are some significant defensive weaknesses that are hard to overlook.
The New Mexico pass defense has been shredded over the last two weeks. This was to be expected against San Jose State and its pass-happy attack, but the way New Mexico State passed all over this secondary was shocking.
This defense is allowing 6.1 yards per play this season and giving up 391 yards per game on average. The Lobos have very little pass rush, and going on the road against Boise State will provide a significant test for this defense.
Offensively, the Lobos have been consistent, but we haven’t seen the explosiveness from this offense. Its ability to stack successful plays together has also been limited.
Quarterback Jack Layne has been as advertised, though. He can create in the pocket and make throws downfield, but he's not overly mobile.
I expect Boise State to create some unique blitz packages that will test this offensive line and Layne’s ability to throw on the move.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview: Big Effort Here
Boise State had high hopes for the 2025 season, but two disappointing road efforts have thwarted the Broncos' playoff hopes.
Now, the goal must be to win the Mountain West, and that quest starts this week.
Boise State really needs to start elevating its level of play, as the league schedule stiffens significantly with games against UNLV, Fresno State and San Diego State in the coming weeks.
The Boise offense had some missed opportunities last week against Notre Dame and couldn’t capitalize. Untimely red-zone turnovers and poor decision-making from quarterback Maddux Madsen limited the point total, and I expect this offense to rebound here.
Madsen is completing 60% of his passes this season, and prior to last week, had a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. This offense has scored 49 points per game at home and is averaging nearly seven yards per play overall.
Defensively, Boise State hasn't been the same unit we saw dominate in the trenches last season, when the Broncos led all of FBS with 55 sacks and 111 tackles for loss.
The Havoc production is down, as is the defensive rushing average.
The Broncos' stop unit has played significantly better football at home this season, and I would expect a hyper-focused effort before the showdown with UNLV next week.
New Mexico vs Boise State Pick, Betting Analysis
There have been some varying opinions on this Boise State bunch this season, and this week, the line has held steady at -16.5 with minimal movement.
I'm going to lay it here. This is such a good spot for Boise State. The Broncos are playing at home at night, where they historically have dominated in league play.
New Mexico is now on the second of back-to-back road trips, and its defense could get exposed here on the Smurf Turf.
The Lobos rank just 102nd in Success Rate allowed and 132nd in Havoc this season. I expect a clean pocket for Madsen and plenty of time for the play-action passing route combinations to develop downfield.
We should see explosive pass plays from Boise State off the play action, as New Mexico will struggle to stop the run. The Lobos sit 94th in EPA Per Rush allowed this season and 113th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
San Jose State gashed the Lobos on the ground, which was set up by its passing game. Boise State will do the exact opposite of that. The Broncos will use tight ends in the run game and wear this defensive front down, which will set up play-action.
Madsen has thrown for 300 yards in each home game this season with six passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. This Lobos secondary is 127th nationally in allowing explosive passes, and I expect Boise to connect downfield a ton in this matchup.
We've seen the Lobos play their best football. We haven’t seen the Broncos play theirs.
I expect a full effort here and for Boise to pull away in the fourth quarter to win this game by three touchdowns. Lay it.
Pick: Boise State -16.5
New Mexico vs Boise State Betting Trends
