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The New Mexico Lobos take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno, Nevada, on Friday, Nov. 6. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
New Mexico is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. Nevada, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +340 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 38.5 total points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. Nevada prediction and college football pick for Friday, November 6.
New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction
- New Mexico vs. Nevada Pick: Nevada +10.5 (-120)
My Nevada vs. New Mexico best bet is on the Wolf Pack to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
New Mexico vs Nevada Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -102 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -120 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
- New Mexico vs Nevada point spread: New Mexico -10.5 (-102), Nevada +10.5 (-120)
- New Mexico vs Nevada over/under: 38.5 (-110o / -110u)
- New Mexico vs Nevada moneyline: New Mexico -450, Nevada +340
New Mexico vs Nevada College Football Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Defense With Ambitions
New Mexico is starting to see the pressure mount a bit, as the Lobos are squarely in the conversation to win the Mountain West and represent the Group of 6 in the College Football Playoff.
Head coach Jason Eck has done an incredible job managing his team and keeping the group focused on lesser opponents, but it has been a major sweat the last three weeks.
This group still has a lot left in front of them with four high-pressure games remaining against quality Mountain West opponents, starting this week with Nevada on the road.
Injuries have made it tough for the offense to execute the way it wants to, and the team has turned to Toa Fa’avae at quarterback the last three weeks.
Fa’avae isn't a strong passing quarterback, and the Lobos don't ask him to throw it much. The pressure has mounted for the sophomore quarterback, as he's completing just 57% of his passes with a 1:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last three games.
New Mexico is going to run the ball here, as it has over the last three weeks, when 78% of offensive snaps have seen the ball kept on the ground.
Scottre Humphrey has morphed into the lead back, and Kiefer Sibley gives this Lobo offense a great one-two punch. Fa’avae is the team's third-leading rusher.
The trio has accounted for 1,310 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns this year, by far the overwhelming majority of the offensive rushing production.
There's little mystery as to what UNM wants to do, and this team is likely to find itself in another lower-scoring, field-position type game. UNM generally wins these battles strategically, as the Lobos are the No. 1 team in the country in average starting offensive field position.
The defense has been lights out for UNM all season, and the numbers are stunning. No opponent has scored more than 18 points against this defense, which is allowing just 81 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry.
UNM has allowed four rushing plays all season of more than 20 yards, and the Lobos lead the country in scoring defense while surrendering just 11.9 points per game.
The Lobos can be thrown on, and the secondary has surrendered a decent number of explosive plays. The group has played well on a down-to-down basis, though, allowing just 56% completions and 6.3 yards per pass attempt.
The unit has benefited from an FBS-leading 17 interceptions, with safeties Tavian Combs and Austin Brawley each plucking four picks this year. Overall, this is the best defense at the G6 level.
Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: Good Enough to Lose
Nevada has been really close to a breakthrough, but the team is suffering through another lost season. If the Wolf Pack fail to pull a major upset down the stretch, this team is going to fail to make a bowl game yet again.
Nevada had North Dakota State on the ropes in the FargoDome and could have seen different results against Air Force and MTSU early in the season.
Injuries and inconsistent offensive play have been the drivers behind Nevada not finding the win column as frequently as desired this year.
Quarterback injuries have unquestionably been the culprit behind the offensive struggles, as Carter Jones has missed four games, backup QB A.J. Bianco has missed time, and third-string QB Luke Duncan has struggled in limited action.
There's no continuity at the position, but Bianco figures to get the call the rest of the way this season.
Nevada has to feed running backs Herschel Turner and Dominic Kelley, and this team needs to be able to run the football. Turner and Kelley have combined to run for 1,096 yards and nine rushing scores this season while averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
Bianco adds some mobility with his legs, but the passing game is likely not strong enough to exploit the Lobos' secondary. Methodically driving the ball while getting the run game going is the real path to Nevada finding some success.
The Wolf Pack defense has played good football this season, and despite losing 27-0 last week to UCLA, that was the case again. The defense was tough against the run and has been for much of the season, outside of trying to contain Air Force.
The pass rush has a chance to get home in this one, with Dylan LaBarbera and EJ Smith regularly flying all over the field and causing disruption against the opposition.
Nevada will have a chance to put the pressure on New Mexico, and I expect a good showing from the stop unit.
New Mexico vs Nevada Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with New Mexico listed as a 12.5-point favorite, with a total that has been bet down from 42.5 to 38.5. Nevada took money earlier in the week, and the line currently sits at 10.5. I like the Wolf Pack catching 10.5 in this matchup.
New Mexico is in quite the spot here, playing its third road game over the last four weeks with a major showdown against UNLV looming.
We've seen the Lobos perform well in pressure situations this season, but asking this team to win by an extended margin without an effective passing game is a lot to ask.
Nevada will generate pressure on Fa’avae in this matchup, and the New Mexico offensive line has allowed 19 sacks this season.
New Mexico will run the football the overwhelming majority of the time in this game, and Nevada defensively ranks 57th nationally in both Rushing Success Rate allowed and explosiveness allowed on the ground.
Early-down success will be critical here.
The Lobos have been poor on first and second down in recent weeks, and the result has been failed third-down attempts. Over the last three weeks, UNM has converted just 11-of-36 attempts, and Nevada allows opponents to convert just 30% of third downs.
Nevada has played much better than its record indicates, and this is a major spot for these guys on Friday night. The pace of this game will be slow, and it should turn into a field-position game with minimal explosive plays on either side.
Both teams want to run the football, and I think Nevada’s defense can do enough here to keep the Wolf Pack in this game. I want to be on the home team catching double digits here.
Pick: Nevada +10.5 (-120)
