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The South Florida Bulls take on the East Carolina Pirates in Greenville, North Carolina, on Friday, Nov. 6. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
East Carolina is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. USF, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +108 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 39.5 total points.
Here’s my USF vs. East Carolina prediction and college football pick for Friday, November 6.
USF vs East Carolina Prediction
- USF vs East Carolina Pick: East Carolina ML (-130)
My East Carolina vs. USF best bet is on the Pirates to win outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
USF vs East Carolina Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 39.5 -108o / -112u | +108 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 39.5 -108o / -112u | -130 |
- USF vs East Carolina point spread: East Carolina -2.5 (-110), USF +2.5 (-110)
- USF vs East Carolina over/under: 39.5 (-108o / -112u)
- USF vs East Carolina moneyline: USF +108, East Carolina -130
USF vs East Carolina College Football Preview
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview
South Florida is off another convincing win despite the offense playing terrible football at home against an inferior opponent.
The Bulls managed just 237 yards and 13 first downs against UAB, as USF had to turn to backup quarterback Luke Kromenhoek early in the second quarter. Starter Michael Van Buren left the game after a big hit in the second quarter and did not return.
Head coach Brian Hartline was asked about who would be the starter for this game, and his reply was, “We’ll have one.”
South Florida did benefit from two fumble-return touchdowns against UAB in the 30-10 win.
Kromenhoek completed 7-of-10 passes against UAB but for just 39 yards and the Bulls downfield passing attack is one of the least effective at the FBS level.
South Florida’s leading receiver is Bryson Rodgers, who has just 345 receiving yards on the season.
USF quarterbacks have just six touchdown passes. as the offense has regularly struggled to put quality drives together. The ground attack is averaging just 148 yards per game. DJ Crowther leads the way with 578 yards and seven rushing touchdowns.
The USF defense has played really good football this season, holding opponents to just 14.5 points and 306 yards per game. The pass rush has been more effective in recent weeks, as USF has recorded 17 of its 20 sacks over the last five games.
The run stop unit has been swarming to the football, allowing just 80 rushing yards on 68 attempts in the last two games.
ECU will struggle to run the football here in this game, and the pass explosives are likely not going to be produced against a USF secondary that has been strong all season. I would expect a good showing from this USF defense.
East Carolina Pirates Betting Preview
East Carolina rebounded nicely after two brutal back-to-back overtime losses on the road at UAB and Memphis, as the Pirates picked up a home win over Temple last week. The defense forced three turnovers and didn't allow a touchdown against the Owls.
ECU didn't allow a play longer than 20 yards against Temple in a game that featured long, methodical drives that ended with defensive stops or field-goal attempts.
The Pirates couldn't get the offense clicking, and the unit has been off all season. Emory Williams has been replaced by Mitch Griffis at quarterback. The ECU offense plays very fast, but doesn't connect on explosive passes and struggles to run the football.
Griffis is completing 55% of his throws, but the receivers have been a bit of a disappointment. Landon Sides and Jeremiah Melvin have dealt with injury, as has Brock Spalding, who just made his season debut last week.
Eventually this offense should break out, but assuming it will be this week against a stout USF defense takes a lot of gumption.
The ECU defense has been the calling card for defensive-minded head coach Blake Harrell. Harrell replaced his defensive coordinator this offseason, but the stop unit has resembled what we've seen during Harrell’s tenure as head coach.
The defensive line has registered 21 sacks and 70 tackles for loss, and creating activity in the backfield has been paramount to ECU getting opponents off the field.
The early game plan has also been exceptional, as ECU has unbelievably not allowed a touchdown in the first half in five consecutive games.
USF vs East Carolina Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened a pick'em, with ECU taking money in the market, which has pushed this line out to -2.5. The total has been sharply bet down from 44.5 to 39.5.
I like ECU to win this game and would lay -130 on the moneyline with the Pirates.
ECU getting Spalding back from injury should unlock some more consistency in the passing game. He gives Griffis another weapon alongside Sides and Ray Ray Joseph Jr.
Sides has been more involved in the pass attack with seven catches each of the last two weeks, and the deep shots should develop after ECU establishes the ground attack.
The Pirates ran the ball really well last week, and they're committed to getting the ground attack going.
USF played two poor rushing offenses the last two games in UAB and Kent State, but the run defense has struggled defending the run on the road this season, ranking 82nd overall in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
Watch for successful run plays to open up the passing game, where ECU should have success.
The USF offense is averaging 272 yards per game this season, and the point totals the last two weeks have been aided by three defensive scores.
The Bulls didn't score an offensive touchdown against Kent State until five minutes remained in the third quarter. They also scored just one against UAB.
The pass game is too inconsistent to believe the Bulls will be able to regularly move the ball and find scoring opportunities.
Hartline is playing it close to the vest as to who will start at QB for USF, but either Van Buren or Kromenhoek will be faced with relentless pressure from the ECU defense. That will be the difference in this game. ECU should sneak out with a home win.
Pick: East Carolina ML (-130)
USF vs East Carolina Betting Trends
