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There's something special about college football being played under the lights, and that's exactly what we have tonight with a five-game slate.
Our staff came through with five best bets for SMU vs. Virginia Tech, East Carolina vs. USF, Illinois vs. Nebraska and Arizona vs. TCU.
With so much action to get to, let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF best bets for this slate of games on Friday, November 6.
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College Football Picks, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10:15 p.m. | |
| 10:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
SMU vs. Virginia Tech Pick
By Bet Labs
Saturday's SMU vs. Virginia Tech college football game fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Road Trip Luck Low O/U (Level I)," this system targets college football conference games where travel fatigue and recent turnover trends create hidden value.
The focus is on teams playing the second game or later of a road stretch, where continuity and preparation can become advantages against opponents struggling with ball security.
When the opposing team has lost the turnover battle recently, it often signals instability in execution rather than bad luck, a vulnerability that can be exploited by a team already adjusted to the road.
SMU lost the turnover battle, 2-0, in a 30-27 loss to Syracuse last week.
With a total below 60, the matchup is expected to be lower-scoring, reducing volatility and emphasizing efficiency over explosiveness.
This system benefits from disciplined road teams facing turnover-prone opponents in contained scoring environments, where consistency and mistake avoidance often determine the outcome.
This system boasts an all-time record of 349-253-8, good for a winning percentage of 58% and an ROI of 12.3%.
Pick: Virginia Tech +6.5
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East Carolina vs. USF Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Crowther is the center of South Florida’s scoring attack. The senior back has 578 rushing yards on 121 carries and seven rushing touchdowns, plus a receiving score against UTSA, and he has found the end zone in five of South Florida’s eight games.
That includes three touchdowns against Delaware State, a score in the win at Bowling Green, and a rushing and receiving touchdown in the loss at UTSA.
The Bulls rank near the bottom of the country in passing, and quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. has just six touchdown passes this season, so South Florida’s touchdowns largely run through Crowther.
The matchup helps him get to the goal line. East Carolina faces one of the highest rushing volumes in the country, and the Pirates have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns against just one passing score. Opponents score on the ground against this defense because ECU’s pass coverage is strong.
East Carolina also has a 139.8-yard run defense that ranks 68th nationally, which is good but beatable for a 5-foot-11 back who gets 20 or more carries when the game is close.
The game script favors a back like Crowther. The total sits near 39.5, with East Carolina a small favorite, and projections have this as a first-to-20 game. South Florida’s defense is one of the best in the country on paper, with the second-best red-zone defense and two defensive touchdowns in the Kent State game, and that tends to produce short fields.
In a tight, low-scoring game, South Florida’s touchdowns will be hard to come by, and Crowther is the player the Bulls trust most near the goal line. At +115, he needs to score about 46.5% of the time, and he’s done so 62.5% of the time this season.
Pick: D.J. Crowther Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
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Illinois vs. Nebraska Pick
By Jourdan Case
Nebraska has dropped three in a row: one to Indiana, one at Oregon on a 10 p.m. body clock in a game in which they outgained the Ducks on a per-play basis, and one to Washington thanks to three interceptions while outgaining the Huskies overall and per play.
Meanwhile, Illinois beat up on Michigan State and Maryland, and it beat Oregon while being outgained by over 100 yards with an even turnover margin.
I'm not buying this Illinois team at all and still think Nebraska is pretty good.
The Huskers should dominate on the ground. They aren't an elite rushing offense, but they rank 43rd in EPA/Rush and 44th in Rushing Success Rate.
Illinois' defense, meanwhile, comes in at 107th in EPA/Rush allowed and 70th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
If quarterback Anthony Colandrea can take care of the football, Nebraska should win by double digits.
Pick: Nebraska -4.5
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Arizona vs. TCU Pick
Neither TCU nor Arizona has had luck generating a ground attack. Inside zone read is the lead run concept for both offenses, but each opposing defense has the advantage in Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed.
The success of both offenses will come down to their quarterbacks. Craig will need a boost from a TCU offensive line that has struggled to protect the quarterback.
The good news for Craig is the lack of a pass rush from Arizona, but the bad news is the aggressive number of blitzes called by Gonzales. The Wildcats send blitzes on 57% of opponents' pass attempts, posting a top-10 mark among FBS defenses with 25 sacks.
There's no expectation that the Horned Frogs will protect quarterback Jaden Craig, as the offensive line has allowed 84 pressures over the past five Big 12 games.
The former Ivy League signal-caller has a moderate jump in turnover-worthy play rate with six touchdowns to three interceptions against the blitz.
Arizona QB Noah Fifita has been a different story against the blitz this season, posting a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.6% in 117 dropbacks. Arizona has had mid-FBS success against quarters, but a high 57% mark against Cover 3.
The difference between the two offenses is when drives turn into scoring opportunities.
TCU has been one of the worst scoring teams in the first half this season, ranking 111th at 10.8 points per game through the first two quarters.
This is also a roster that will be playing a road game on a short week in its eighth consecutive week. Because of an overseas season opener, the Horned Frogs haven't had extra time to prepare since Week 2.
TCU has scored 34 total first-half points over its past five Big 12 games. Arizona has been quite the opposite, ranking 22nd in first-half scoring with an average of 19.5 per game.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for the Wildcats to be just a 6-point favorite, but TCU is on short rest after road travel in its eighth consecutive game.
The Horned Frogs are in desperate need of a bye week since the firing of their offensive line coach, as Craig continues to post a high pressure-to-sack ratio. Look for Arizona to jump out early with Fifita's arm.
Check out Wilson's full Week 10 betting card below:
Pick: Arizona 1H -5.5
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Arizona vs. TCU Best Bet
By Kyle Hunter
There’s a sneaky good Friday night slate this week. TCU goes to Arizona in a game that could be a good one in the Big 12.
Arizona has some injuries in the secondary, and that has led to the spread coming down and the total going up some in the last couple days.
The TCU offense has been a disappointment this year, but the Horned Frogs defense is excellent. TCU ranks 14th nationally in yards per play allowed at 4.56 yards per play given up. It's also seventh in the nation in Success Rate allowed.
Opponents have scored on only 68.4% of trips to the red zone, so the Horned Frogs have also been great at shutting down the opposition once they get close to the end zone.
I’ve been really impressed with the consistency of the TCU defense. It hasn't allowed more than 24 points in a single game all season. They gave up 24 points to a very good West Virginia offense.
In every other game this season, TCU has allowed 17 points or fewer.
Both of these teams play at a slow pace, ranking 99th and 102nd in the nation in tempo.
Arizona sits 45th nationally in Points Per Opportunity, so they haven’t been great at cashing in with touchdowns. The Wildcats would have to have more success than anyone has had against the Frogs defense so far this season.
Pick: Arizona Team Total Under 27.5
