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The New Mexico Lobos take on the New Mexico State Aggies in Las Cruces, NM. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
New Mexico is favored by -11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -455. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. New Mexico State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Prediction
- New Mexico vs. New Mexico State St Pick: Under 48.5
My New Mexico State vs. New Mexico best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis!
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -455 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
- New Mexico vs New Mexico State point spread: New Mexico -11.5 (-110), New Mexico State +11.5 (-110)
- New Mexico vs New Mexico Statet over/under: 48.5 (-110o / -110u)
- New Mexico vs New Mexico State moneyline: New Mexico -455, New Mexico State +350
New Mexico vs New Mexico State College Football Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: One Dimensional
The Lobos were off to a good start to the season after a convincing win against Central Michigan and an expected blowout to Mercyhurst. Then Oklahoma came around.
To New Mexico’s credit, though, it only let up 14 points against the Sooners; it just happened to be that the Lobos only managed six points themselves.
Frankie Edwards III and Tavian Combs picked off John Mateer, and Isaiah Sategna III also fumbled, allowing New Mexico to take over.
When you look at this team, you have to know what you’re going to get. The fact that tight end Cade Keith leads the team in receiving yards by a long shot is all you need to know about the passing game.
New Mexico is currently 126th in pass play success rate and 130th in PPA, while throwing the ball at a bottom-10 rate. Most of this offense comes from the ground, as it runs the ball at a top-15 rate, led by Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley.
On the defensive side is where things get really interesting. After the tight battle against Oklahoma, I wanted to see where New Mexico was nationally in stats.
- 13th in opponent points per play
- 9th in points allowed per game
- 19th in opponent rushing yards per game
- 19th in opponent punts per game
Even though I think this offense is more or less a black hole, I think the defense will end up being what keeps the Lobos in games.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview: Top Heavy
Unlike its counterparts, New Mexico State is off to a rough start.
From losing 34-17 to Florida State and falling to Hawaii by the score of 29-19, the only win that the Aggies achieved was against, ironically, Mercyhurst.
New Mexico State actually has a few solid players like quarterback Trey Hedden, TK King, James Jones and Nick Session, but there isn’t a ton of meat on the bone.
The Aggies' depth is what will ultimately hurt their season, primarily on the defensive end. Outside of Session, there aren't a whole lot of playmakers, and it shows in the numbers.
While New Mexico State is halfway decent against the run, its ability to limit the pass has been unimpressive. The Aggies currently are 95th in passing play and passing down success rate allowed and 82nd in pass play PPA allowed — though they have done a solid job at limiting explosive plays.
Session has been the key player in this regard. He’s been a tackling machine, with 16 solo tackles, a pair of interceptions (one of them being a pick-six) and a pass breakup.
But this isn’t a one-man band.
I’m not so much concerned about the offense. Hedden has been decent in the first three games, throwing for 250 yards in each of them. His decision-making does need to be a bit better (three picks), but overall, his chemistry with King has been the driving force of the offense.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Pick, Betting Analysis
I challenge you to find something more romantic than a late September Rio Grande Rivalry matchup.
I don't think you can.
Alas, I can definitely see this being an ugly game.
Given New Mexico’s limitations through the air, and New Mexico State’s issues on the defensive end, the case for the under is appealing to me.
We have projections favoring the Lobos by 12.6 points, and with an 11.5-point spread, it gives me pause.
I don’t think New Mexico is that dominant. In standard down metrics, the Lobos are 95th in success rate; meanwhile, the Aggies are 91st in success rate allowed. New Mexico State is also 114th in havoc.
Both teams are 2-1 when hitting the under, and at 48.5, I think this is the sweet spot.
Pick: Under 48.5
