The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in Ruston, La. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Louisiana Tech is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -380. The total is set at 42.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 13, 2025.
New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Prediction
- New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Pick: New Mexico State +10
My Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State best bet is on the Aggies spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -112 | 42.5 -112o / -108u | +300 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -108 | 42.5 -112o / -108u | -380 |
- New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech point spread: Louisiana Tech -10
- New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech over/under: 42.5 points
- New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech moneyline: New Mexico State +300, Louisiana Tech -380
New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech Pick, Betting Analysis
2-0 New Mexico State takes on 1-1 Louisiana Tech in this early-season affair, and a system is lighting up for the 'dog to cover the spread.
Evan Abrams' "Bounce-Back Fade" system says that the Aggies will cover this double-digit spread, and the system has a solid return on investment (ROI) since its inception (12.4% since 2005).
"Bounce-Back Fade" is a college football system that takes advantage of public overreaction to teams coming off a poor performance (Louisiana Tech lost to LSU 23-7 last week).
In conference play, when an opponent has just lost by more than three points and enters with only a one game home or away streak, bettors often expect a strong rebound effort.
Oddsmakers know this tendency and may shade the line toward that team, creating hidden value on the other side. By focusing on spreads between three and 16 points, the system captures games that are competitive enough for the line to matter but not so close that small swings decide the outcome.
In these situations, fading the supposed bounce back team has historically delivered consistent returns, as motivation alone doesn't erase underlying weaknesses that caused the initial loss.
Take the Aggies on the spread.
Pick: New Mexico State +10
