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The North Dakota State Bison take on the UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas, NV. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on The CW.
North Dakota State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my North Dakota State vs. UNLV prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10.
North Dakota State vs UNLV Prediction
- North Dakota State vs. UNLV Pick: North Dakota State Team Total Under 25.5
My UNLV vs. North Dakota State best bet is on the Rebels' total points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download our Action Network app to get the latest picks and betting analysis.
North Dakota State vs UNLV Odds
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -160 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
- North Dakota State vs UNLV point spread: North Dakota State -3.5 (-102), UNLV +3.5 (-120)
- North Dakota State vs UNLV over/under: 48.5 (-105o / -115u)
- North Dakota State vs UNLV moneyline: North Dakota State -160, UNLV +130
North Dakota State vs UNLV College Football Preview
North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview: Leveling Up
North Dakota State has been impressive this season in its first at the FBS level, and the transition has gone as well as anyone would have predicted.
The Bison are 5-0 both straight up and against the spread, led by their defense, which is tied with Miami for first in the country. NDSU has allowed just 9.8 points per game this season.
The Bison have remained true to the identity that brought them so much success at the FCS level, using a ball-control offense, power running game and rock-solid defense to win games.
The offense isn't as explosive, dominant or dynamic as in previous seasons, but quarterback Nathan Hayes has completed 65% of his passes with 995 yards through the air and a 7:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The ground game has been effective and efficient without being overly explosive. NDSU is averaging 171 rushing yards per game as a team on 4.2 yards per carry.
DJ Scott and Myles Mitchell garner the majority of the carries and have rushed for 512 yards between the pair with seven combined rushing scores.
Jackson Williams is the most consistent receiver and has hauled in 22 passes for 358 yards this season. He'll see a decent amount of the target share in this game.
The defense has been unbelievably impressive while holding four of its five opponents to 10 points or less.
The Bison have been strong against the run and have held their opponents — including Air Force — to just three yards per carry and 102 yards per game on the ground.
The secondary hasn't surrendered explosive plays, and only 40% of opponent red-zone trips have resulted in touchdowns.
This bunch will have its hands full against UNLV on the road this week, but I expect a decent showing out of this defense.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: Already Disappointed?
UNLV has to consider this season mildly disappointing thus far, as the Rebels dropped the season opener at home against Memphis and were embarrassed on the road at North Texas earlier in the season.
Recently, however, the offense has come to life with back-to-back games, scoring 38 and 39 points in wins over Akron and Cal. The Rebels have their sights set on continuing to remain in contention for a Mountain West title.
The offense is going to remain run-oriented, as Jai'Den Thomas leads the way with 383 yards and a pair of rushing scores.
Thomas provides explosiveness and versatility out of the running back position and is a great complement to quarterback Jackson Arnold, who has run for 270 yards while leading the team with five rushing scores.
Arnold has thrown the ball well over the last two weeks, and connecting on the downfield passes has spring-loaded the scoring for UNLV.
While only 59% of his passes have been completed, Arnold creates well on the move, has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception, and many of his incomplete passes were throwaways to avoid sacks.
The eyesore has been the offensive line, which has surrendered 14 sacks and 28 tackles for loss. This group will have its work cut out for them against a strong Bison defensive front.
The UNLV defense isn't a strong unit, but it has played well at times this season. Holding Hawaii to six points on the road was quite a feat, and Akron was held scoreless after halftime a couple of weeks back.
Cal scored 31 points last week against this defense in completely fluky fashion. One scoring drive was a 91-yard touchdown pass where a defender fell, and another missed a tackle.
After halftime, UNLV surrendered a scoring drive of 52 yards, followed up by fumbling the ensuing kickoff.
The offense has run a slower tempo recently and will likely do so here to keep the defense fresh, but this stop unit will have to be rock-solid in order to see UNLV compete with NDSU.
North Dakota State vs UNLV Pick, Betting Analysis
This game has North Dakota State listed as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total set at 48.5. This total has been bet down from 51.5 on the opener.
I agree with the move and feel this matchup is one between even teams. I'm willing to take NDSU’s team total under 25.5.
This game will be played at a very slow pace, and the Bison will operate very slowly when they have the ball.
While this offense has put up a decent amount of points this season, the strength of schedule disparity in this matchup is monumental. North Dakota State has feasted on weak defenses, including Sac State, Fordham and Air Force.
The Rebs have controlled the line of scrimmage this season and have done well to prevent explosives on the ground.
NDSU won't find the chunk plays on the ground in this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see UNLV get the Bison off the field early in this game until they settle in.
The Rebels have given up some explosiveness through the air, something NDSU is ill-equipped to exploit in this matchup.
UNLV has an excellent red-zone defense that has allowed just eight touchdowns on 17 attempts. I look for the UNLV stop unit to bow up in the red area and force NDSU to settle for field goals, something we've seen in recent weeks.
The Rebels will run the ball a decent amount, and while they'll be effective, they won't be explosive. NDSU has made a concerted effort defensively to keep everything in front of it, and the defense forces long, methodical drives.
UNLV's performance in the red zone has been terrible this season, as only 53% of trips have resulted in touchdowns, and the Rebs gamble on fourth-and-goal a lot.
Doing that again will leave NDSU with long fields, so the Bison will take time off the clock on long, methodical drives.
I think this game will be a lower-scoring competitive grind, with the winning team not surpassing 24 total points.
This is a tough trip against a team that has played a much tougher schedule to date, so I will bet that the Bison offense struggles for the first time this season.
Pick: North Dakota State Team Total Under 25.5
