Notre Dame vs. Michigan Odds & Betting Pick: Will This Be Wolverines’ Big Moment?
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jim Harbaugh and Shea Patterson
- The latest Notre Dame vs. Michigan odds list the Irish as a small favorite for Saturday night's game in Ann Arbor (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
- Can Notre Dame pull it out to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive, or will the Wolverines get a signature win?
- We cover every betting angle, from Michigan's improved pass protection to the daunting weather forecast.
Notre Dame vs. Michigan Odds
- Odds: Notre Dame -1
- Over/Under: 51
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Ann Arbor, Mich.
Between 2 and 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, rain will start to fall in Ann Arbor. And it’s going to fall all night, and all over Michigan Stadium during Notre Dame-Michigan.
The Wolverines are out of the College Football Playoff and Big Ten East races after a second loss last week, while Notre Dame is still clinging to some CFP hope.
Will Michigan get revenge for last season’s loss to ND, or can the Irish stay on track?
Odds as of Friday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Model Projection for Notre Dame-Michigan
- Spread: Michigan -0.8
- Total: 56.5
Is Michigan’s Big Win Finally Coming?
Give Michigan some credit — down 21-0 at Penn State in a hostile environment, the Wolverines didn’t give up. It was a tail of two halves for Penn State, as the Nittany Lions averaged 7 yards per play in the first half and just 1.9 in the second half.
Michigan scored 21 of the last 28 points in the game, and was a touchdown drop away from overtime.
Brian Kelly was vocal about getting pressure on Shea Patterson much like in 2018. The Irish are 14th in sack rate defensively, a challenge for a Michigan offensive line that is 62nd in sack rate.
But the big boys on the line for Michigan have played better of late, allowing just one sack to a really strong Penn State defensive line and none to Illinois.
The Michigan defense has the task of flushing Ian Book from the pocket. He can move, but Brandon Wimbush and his speed were ultra-effective in the season opener last year against Michigan. Book took Wimbush’s job a few games later, but in that matchup against man-to-man defense, he paid dividends.
This year, the Wolverines should have Notre Dame in passing downs early, with a rank of 25th in line yards against an Irish rushing attack that is 93rd in power success.
This number may rise leading up to kick with plenty of money on the Notre Dame side. The Irish have covered just once in their past six road games (Georgia) and once in their past eight trips to Ann Arbor.
Look for Harbaugh and Michigan to treat this game with as much emphasis as a Big Ten rivalry. — Collin Wilson
Pick: Michigan +1 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey: Michigan Bumped Up After Loss
From a situational perspective, this spot heavily favors Notre Dame. The Irish had two weeks to prepare and should come in fresh and healthy after a bye week. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are coming off an emotional loss at Penn State in which their comeback effort fell just short on a dropped pass late in the game.
That said, I still think the Wolverines are the play here as a home dog, as Michigan is a little undervalued in the market in my eyes after many bettors are holding on to what they saw earlier in the season.
But after outplaying the Nittany Lions last week, I bumped Michigan up in my power ratings and really liked what I saw from the team on both sides of the ball.
It was understandable that the offense struggled early on in the season with a transition to a brand new offensive scheme implemented under new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis.
But it finally looks as if the offense is developing a rhythm and feeling comfortable in the new spread attack. That includes the offensive line, which is playing at an extremely high level over the past few games, which has significantly improved its run defense that was gashed earlier in the season. I think they can bully a Notre Dame defensive line that can be pushed around, especially in the interior.
The Notre Dame secondary has also been vulnerable at times (see: USC, a home game it easily could’ve lost). Getting senior cornerback Sean Crawford back should help, but this is a unit that can be thrown on.
Michigan has consistently generated pressure on passing downs, ranking seventh nationally in Passing Downs Sack Rate. Also, make sure you keep an eye out on the crowd noise, which caused Notre Dame some issues in Athens when it was trying to utilize the silent count.
Speaking of that Georgia game, I was extremely impressed with Notre Dame for that primetime performance at the time. However, after seeing how the Bulldogs have played since, maybe we shouldn’t have all been as wowed by that close loss and cover.
And on the other side of the ball, after some personnel changes up front, the defense is also playing much better. The one area Michigan still struggles with is speedy receivers such as Penn State’s KJ Hamler, who absolutely killed the Wolverines last week.
We’ve seen in the past how shifty wideouts have killed Michigan with crossing routes, but that’s not as big of a concern with Notre Dame’s receiving corps.
Also, we give a lot of grief to Jim Harbaugh about his struggles against ranked teams on the road, but Brian Kelly has also struggled in this department at Notre Dame, going 1-10 straight up in this situation since 2012 with the lone victory coming against Temple.
In a matchup of two teams I rate essentially even, I’ll gladly take the short home pup. I think Michigan continues the trend of the home team dominating this series (8-1 last 9) and the Wolverines pull out a close win to improve to 5-0 ATS at home vs. ranked teams over the past three years.
Pick: Michigan +1 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
The Weather Is Going to be a Problem
Rain suppresses scoring in college football, and while books adjust, it’s often not enough. Wind has the same affect, and we’re going to get plenty of both in Ann Arbor on Saturday night.
Both teams rank just inside the top 50 in plays per minute, so they don’t play slow by any means, but I think we’ll see them both be limited in the rain.
The possibility for a sloppy, gross game here is real, and I think the under still has value at 50 despite falling several points, and will likely throw an alternative under (anything above 45 at about +200) into some round robins with other bad-weather games across the midwest. — Steve Petrella
Pick: Under 50 or higher [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]