Ohio-Miami Ohio Betting Preview: Last Week’s MACtion Results Creating Value?
Trevor Ruszkowsk-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gus Ragland
Ohio vs. Miami-Ohio Betting Odds, Pick
- Odds: Ohio -4.5
- Over/Under: 61.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU
Fresh off a blowout of Western Michigan, Ohio travels to Miami-Ohio trying to keep pace in the MAC East.
The two teams are coming off very different results last week. Is that creating value on Miami Ohio?
>> All odds as of 9 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
Market Moves for Ohio-Miami Ohio
By Steve Petrella
Behind the majority of bets, Ohio has moved to -4.5 after opening -3. As of Wednesday morning, 82% of bets and 70% of dollars were on the Bobcats (see live data here).
Every year, we see teams get massive public support during midweek MAC games because of what happened the week prior. Ohio stomped Western Michigan 59-14, while Miami-Ohio lost to Buffalo in a shootout and didn’t cover — both in standalone games that bettors saw.
Matchup Breakdown for Ohio-Miami Ohio
Miami Ohio’s offense comes in on a roll, having scored 30-plus points in six straight games. It should have success moving the ball through the air against an Ohio defense that struggles immensely to defend the pass.
Per S&P+, the Bobcats rank 114th in the nation in passing defense and allow 8.3 yards per attempt (108th in the country).
The strength of the Miami Ohio offense resides up front, with one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country. All five starters returned from last season on a unit that only allowed 21 sacks all season.
It currently ranks in the top-five nationally in Adjusted Sack Rate on passing downs. The Redhawks should dominate the line of scrimmage against an Ohio defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Adjusted Sack Rate on passing downs.
When Ohio has the ball, it’s all about stopping its rushing attack (5.6 yards per attempt; 14th in country) and explosive plays. Miami Ohio’s defense actually ranks in the top 30 nationally in defending explosiveness and has a capable run defense that ranks 32nd in the nation at 3.6 yards per attempt.
Martin’s Close Game History a Concern
Miami O’s horrid record in close games (5-21) under Chuck Martin does scare me in a game that should be close, but I think this is too many points for a team that should come in fully motivated looking to keep its bowl hopes alive and end a five-game losing streak to its in-state rival.
Remember, this is a senior-laden team that didn’t give up after falling to 3-6 last season.
Ohio has also benefited from plenty of turnover luck this season, namely fumbles, which is not something that should be relied on. The Bobcats have gained about four more turnovers than expected. Plus, Miami Ohio doesn’t really turn the ball over.
Miami Ohio Dealing With Injuries
The biggest question is whether injuries have caught up to Miami Ohio. The Redhawks just lost senior safety De’Andre Montgomery and senior MLB Junior McMullen. They already lost senior DT Nate Trawick, who was one of their best interior players.
Senior corners Deondre Daniels and Daryus Thompson are all listed as questionable, along with DL Isaac Hampton. That’s a lot of injuries to veterans for one defense to deal with.
Bet to Watch
By Collin Wilson
We are siding with the Redhawks in the Battle of the Bricks. Miami Ohio has the chance to play spoiler to Ohio’s shot at the MAC East division before the Bobcats’ game against Buffalo next week.
The Redhawks also need three straight victories to make the postseason, which isn’t a stretch considering quarterback Gus Ragland won six straight two years ago to get bowl eligible.
Ohio has put monster offensive numbers on the board over the past few weeks, scoring 160 points in the past three games. The issue with the Bobcats is a strength of schedule rank at 123rd.
Miami Ohio’s ranking of 72nd in S&P+ will provide the Bobcats their toughest game since a Cincinnati loss in Week 4
Ohio doesn’t play much defense, ranking 96th in S&P+ against the rush and 114th against the pass. The Redhawks should be able to take the rush away from the Bobcats, ranking 29th against rush explosiveness.
The Action Network’s power ratings and S&P+ both have this game projected at Ohio -1.5. Shop for the best Redhawks number, and consider the under with Ohio’s adjusted pace ranking of 120th.
THE PICK: Miami Ohio +4.5
By John Ewing
Road favorites in MAC games have been highly profitable since 2005, going 151-110-8 (58%) against the spread, according to our Bet Labs data. Later in the season, November and December, road favorites have gone 62-38-5 (62%) ATS.
By Evan Abrams
Ohio has been on a roll, winning three consecutive games straight up and ATS, covering the spread by a whopping 29.3 PPG during that streak.
Since 2005, teams on at least a three-game winning streak that have covered their past three games by at least 21 PPG have gone just 30-33-1 ATS (-4.6 units) at home, but are actually 44-31-3 ATS (58.7%) away from home.