The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) take on the No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6, at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ohio State, which enters as a -4.5 favorite, got over the hump by beating arch-rival Michigan, 27-9, last week. The Buckeyes have been dominant all season. Outside of a 14-7 win over Texas in Week 1, they've won every game by double digits.
Indiana, meanwhile, finds itself in a similar boat. Outside of a 2015 win at Iowa and a 27-24 victory at Penn State, the Hoosiers have dominated — and even beat Oregon by double digits, 30-20.
So, who holds the advantage in this No. 1 vs. No. 2 clash?
We polled 7 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Ohio State vs. Indiana picks and college football predictions for the Big Ten Championship on Saturday, Dec. 6.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Indiana +4.5
Our staff weighed in on what should be a classic between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana on Saturday night in Indianapolis.
When it comes to evaluating the spread in this matchup, the crew was a little bit split. Ultimately, the majority are rolling with the Hoosiers to hang tough and cover the 4.5 point number.
Can you really bet against Curt Cignetti in this one? What a story it has been in Bloomington since he took over, and now lies an incredible opportunity to put an exclamation point on a historic season.
Quarterback Francisco Mendoza is considered the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy at this point, and he'll be facing his most difficult challenge to this point against an elite Buckeye defense.
The good news for the Hoosiers is the stable of elite wide receivers that they have.
Ohio State has feasted on a lot of mediocre passing offenses throughout the year, and the trio of Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper and Charlie Becker will be a step up in class. All three can challenge the Buckeyes in the intermediate passing game as well as over the top.
On the other side of the ball, the Indiana defense doesn’t get the hype that OSU does, but this is a really good unit.
IU will be able to get some pressure on Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin without blitzing, which will force Sayin into some uncomfortable situations.
We don’t expect Ohio State to have much success running the ball against a stout Hoosier front either.
Ultimately, this game should be a lower-scoring, nip-and-tuck affair that comes right down to the wire.
Ohio State is rightfully favored, but there’s plenty of value on the Hoosiers as a 4.5-point underdog in a game they can absolutely win outright.
It’s also worth mentioning that with the game in Indy, the Hoosier faithful should have a bit of an edge in crowd support.
And while OSU will certainly want to hang a conference title banner, could there be a little bit of a hangover after finally getting over the hump against Michigan? It’s certainly possible.
Over/Under Pick
Over 47.5 | 1 Pick |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 47.5 | 5 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 47.5
By Road to CFB
The Action Network staff heavily favors the under in the 2025 Big Ten Championship game.
Ohio State hasn't allowed an opponent to go over 16 points all season. Although it hasn't seen an offense the caliber of Indiana’s yet, the Hoosiers have shown they can be held relatively in check against more stout defenses (see: Penn State, Iowa).
Nobody defines “stout” on defense like Ohio State.
The Hoosiers move methodically on offense, checking in with the 12th-most seconds used per play (29.4) and just 53rd in plays run per game (67). It’s unlikely we'll see a turned-up tempo in this game.
On the other side, Ohio State moves the most methodically down the field. It ranks last in seconds per play (31.8) and 100th in plays per game (63).
Head coach Ryan Day looks to build an early lead and then sit on opponents with an effective ground attack that lacks explosiveness.
Defensively, Indiana isn’t far behind. It ranks fourth in Points Per Drive allowed and second in plays per game against (just 53), due in large part to its suffocating late-down Success Rate of just 38.1%.
Contemplative offense, two teams with the greater season in mind (a national title run), and two stingy defenses lead our team to side with the under here.
Other Bets for Ohio State vs. Indiana
Ohio State 1H Team Total Over 13.5
By Road to CFB
Despite having a National Championship in its pocket as recently as January, “Unfinished Business” has been the narrative internally crafted around Ohio State.
For departing players like Carnell Tate, Davison Igbinosun, and Kenyatta Jackson Jr., there were two monkeys left on their backs: (1) beat Michigan and (2) win a Big Ten Championship.
The first of those to-do items has been completed handily.
We’ve seen Ryan Day in this situation now a half-dozen times — when stuff gets serious, particularly in the postseason, the Buckeyes put their foot down in undeniable fashion.
Indiana seems like an impenetrable team and, when looking at the underlying metrics, it is. Almost.
The Hoosiers are prone to the occasional explosive play. Those usually come in desperation when a team trails by 30, which, this year, has been fairly frequent. But the ability is there.
Oregon, Maryland and Illinois all sprung long touchdown passes on an aggressive secondary. It’s a nitpick, but when you’re dealing with the top two teams in the country that combine for 24-0, nitpicking is about all you have left to do.
Day gets incredibly aggressive in big games. Just look at last year’s playoff run when Ohio State jumped all over Tennessee and Oregon early on with downfield passes.
After playing coy all year, I anticipate a few deep shots early on to the now-healthy duo of Tate and Jeremiah Smith.
Whether the Buckeyes successfully do it or not, Day’s approach in big games is to shock teams early and then sit on them late (see: Michigan just last week).
Ohio State’s core is dangerous enough to connect with those even against top-flight competition. I’m looking for two first-half touchdowns here.
Ohio State -9.5 (+175)
By Alex Hinton
Indiana has dominated most of the season with 10 of its 12 victories coming by double digits this season. However, it may be in for a long night at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Ohio State’s defense ranks among the best in the last 25 years, surrendering 203 total yards per game and 7.8 points per game. It has given up more than 10 points just once the entire season.
That defense may have a little more motivation this week, given that a dominant performance may help its quarterback win the Heisman Trophy.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza enters this matchup as the Heisman favorite and the FBS leader in touchdown passes. However, he's also coming off his worst game of the season against Purdue. He will be under the watchful eye of Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, who quarterbacks the defense.
While Mendoza is part of a different Indiana backfield, Ohio State won last year’s meeting, 38-15, in Columbus. I would argue this year’s team has a better defense and certainly a better quarterback.
Sayin leads the FBS in QBR and completion percentage while ranking third in touchdown passes. He was unfazed last week after an early interception at Michigan, and it's easy to see why with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate on the outside.
If the Buckeyes get off to a fast start like my colleague expects, I like them to win this game comfortably. I'll be backing them on an alternate line.
Ohio State vs. Indiana Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 47.5 -114o / -106u | -188 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 47.5 -114o / -106u | +156 |
Ohio State vs. Indiana Spread: Ohio State -4.5, Indiana +4.5
Ohio State vs. Indiana Over/Under: 47.5
Ohio State vs. Indiana Moneyline: Ohio State ML -188, Indiana ML +156
