The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 29. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ohio State is favored by -10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -395. Michigan, meanwhile, enters as a +10 underdog and is +310 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 44.5 total points.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
Ohio State vs Michigan Prediction
- Ohio State vs. Michigan Pick: Over 44 · Ohio State -10
My Michigan vs. Ohio State best bets are on both teams to go over the total and the Buckeyes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Michigan Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -112 | 44.5 -102o / -118u | -395 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -108 | 44.5 -102o / -118u | +310 |
- Ohio State vs Michigan Spread: Ohio State -10, Michigan +10
- Ohio State vs Michigan Over/Under: 44.5 Points
- Ohio State vs Michigan Moneyline: Ohio State -395, Michigan +310
Ohio State vs Michigan College Football Betting Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Can Buckeyes Beat Rivals?
The Ohio State defense has seen little drop-off in the transition from Jim Knowles to Matt Patricia at coordinator. The Buckeyes sit top-10 in nearly every category on defense, with the only drop coming in the ability to create pass breakups.
The 4-2-5 has been fantastic in shutting down opposing ground attacks, generating a negative EPA against teams using inside and outside zone read concepts. A number of the best zone-read offenses were shut down against the Buckeyes, including Penn State and Washington.
Linebacker Sonny Styles leads the team in tackles, but pressure from the edge position has created a top-20 Havoc ranking. Caden Curry, Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Beau Atkinson have combined for 80 pressures this season.
On the other side of the ball, Julian Sayin has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, leading a Buckeyes offense that sits at the top of FBS in Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
The sophomore has thrown 27 touchdowns to four interceptions, quadrupling his big-time throws compared to his turnover-worthy plays. He also comes into this game as the top quarterback in on-target passing.
Sayin has been fantastic in pressured dropbacks, as his turnover-worthy play rate only bumps to 2.3% in a crowded pocket.
Head coach Ryan Day indicated that wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are working hard to return to action. Smith departed the UCLA game and missed action against Rutgers, while Tate has missed three consecutive games.
While Smith's return is all but guaranteed, Tate may be a true game-time decision.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Looking for Another Upset
Michigan will look to cap off another successful season with a fifth straight victory in "The Game."
The offense has had a heavy lean to the rush with quarterback Bryce Underwood and a carousel of injured running backs. Justice Haynes will miss the remainder of the season, while Jordan Marshall is considered day-to-day.
Freshman Bryson Kuzdzal stepped up in relief as the starter against Maryland, recording three touchdowns and three explosive runs.
The defense also has injury concerns, as linebacker Ernest Hausmann is questionable for this game. The senior leads the team in tackles and ranks third in generating pressures. He'd be a big loss for a Wolverines team that's seventh in PFF tackle grading.
Michigan has been fantastic in standard downs, ranking as the second-best team in limiting explosives.
The trouble comes from a Success Rate and EPA perspective in passing downs. Teams that have created a quality drive generally put points on the scoreboard after crossing the 40-yard line.
Ohio State vs Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
The Ohio State defense will have its hands full with a Michigan offense that runs a combination of inside zone, outside zone, gap blocking, power and counter concepts.
The Wolverines run all of these concepts with 11 and 12 personnel, utilizing various formations with a high level of success.
Ohio State has been average in defending zone read concepts and highly successful against power and counter.
The one run concept frequently used by Michigan that can give Ohio State issues is outside zone against a light box. Michigan has 68 rushing attempts using outside zone with six in the box, producing a high 62% Success Rate and an explosive run on one of every four attempts.
The question is whether Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore identifies outside zone away from Ohio State's Curry, one of the best run defenders in the nation.
Sayin has lit up quarters and Cover 3 from opposing defenses all season, and Michigan exclusively runs those concepts for a secondary that's graded 47th by PFF.
There's reason to think Ohio State will have success hitting plays through the air with or without Smith and Tate. The Wolverines rank 88th in creating a contested catch, which would be a key advantage for the Buckeyes.
Michigan also falters in passing downs, an area where the Ohio State offense ranks fifth of all FBS teams.
The Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for a line of Ohio State -11, giving a slight edge to the Buckeyes in the current market.
The Buckeyes defense has been fantastic in shutting down opposing zone read concepts, so expect resistance for Underwood and Kuzdzal on rushing attempts.
If Michigan is without Hausmann on the defense, Ohio State may be able to generate first downs from standard down attempts.
The Wolverines must be Havoc-minded against Sayin in passing downs, as the quarterback has lit up opposing quarters and Cover 3 packages.
But ultimately, the Buckeyes' ability to limit Underwood and a banged-up running back room will work in favor of a cover.
Pick: Over 44 or Better · Ohio State -10 or Better
Ohio State vs Michigan Betting Trends
