College Football Odds & Pick for Oklahoma vs BYU: Value on Sooners?

Let's take a look at college football odds for Oklahoma vs. BYU and make a pick for Saturday's Big 12 battle.

All is not lost.

Despite consecutive losses late in the season, a rebound win for Oklahoma (8-2) over West Virginia last week has the Sooners still in Big 12 contention.

If Oklahoma wins out, it just needs Texas to also win out while Oklahoma State drops one of its remaining two games for the Sooners to qualify for the conference championship game.

BYU (5-5), meanwhile, is still in search of the elusive sixth win requisite for a bowl berth. Games remaining against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State leave the chances of accomplishing that task slim.

But the Cougars wouldn’t be the first home dog to outright win over Oklahoma. The Sooners have dropped two straight on the road. Will BYU be the third?

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Following consecutive losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State, it wouldn’t have been shocking to see the Sooners and their season go out with a whimper.

But a 59-20 win over West Virginia last week has Oklahoma looking like it could still slip into its first Big 12 Championship Game since 2020.

A big reason for the bounce-back win over the Mountaineers was Oklahoma taking care of the ball. The Sooners, who turned it over six total times in their two losses, lost only one fumble against West Virginia, as Dillon Gabriel got back to playing some of the best football in the nation at the quarterback position.

Gabriel’s five touchdown passes against the Mountaineers brought his tally to 25 on the season, the ninth-best mark in the country. He’s one of nine quarterbacks to average more than 300 yards passing per game this year and has Oklahoma’s passing offense ranked sixth in Success Rate.

The Sooners' ground game is also rounding into form, with its best performance of the season last week. Six players combined for 221 yards, as Oklahoma eclipsed 185 yards rushing for the fourth time in its last five games.

Brent Venables has completely transformed the Oklahoma defense in fewer than two full seasons in Norman.

The Sooners rank top-25 in both Rush and Pass Success Allowed and are allowing their fewest points per game (19.8) since the 2014 season.

Oklahoma’s defense, which ranks sixth in Line Yards, has 79 tackles for loss — 10 more than the next closest Big 12 team. That’s bad news for a BYU team that may be forced to run more often than it’d like with a backup quarterback.

You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone, and that’s certainly the case with BYU and the quarterback position.

Kedon Slovis was far from setting the world on fire in BYU’s first eight games, but the offense has taken a major step back the last two weeks with Jake Retzlaff starting in place of the injured Slovis. The Cougars have scored just 20 total points in the two games with Retzlaff, as the junior quarterback is averaging just 159 yards passing in those games.

Slovis was available as an emergency quarterback last week against Iowa State, but his status against Oklahoma is questionable. Head coach Kalani Sitake said during his weekly press conference that Slovis will start if he's 100% healthy.

With or without the former USC and Pitt quarterback, BYU’s 21.9 points per game and 300.0 yards of total offense per game are the fewest in the Big 12.

A lack of any supporting run game has further sunk the BYU offense without Slovis. The Cougars average more than 20 yards fewer rushing than the second-worst team in the conference and have yet to have a rusher break 100 yards in a game this season.

BYU’s run defense is just as poor, as the Cougars are one of two Big 12 teams that allow 5.0 yards per carry. The last three weeks have been particularly bad, with teams combining for eight rushing touchdowns while running for an average of 251.3 yards per game.

Gabriel will likely have all day to throw against a BYU team that's the only group in the country yet to record double-digit sacks for the season.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and BYU match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. BYU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	18	59
Line Yards	87	112
Pass Success	6	91
Havoc	10	116
Finishing Drives	18	47
Quality Drives	12	72

BYU Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	128	21
Line Yards	103	6
Pass Success	121	24
Havoc	103	19
Finishing Drives	56	22
Quality Drives	128	32

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	48	121
PFF Coverage	57	118
Special Teams SP+	100	46
Middle 8	40	129
Seconds per Play	23.2 (8)	27.3 (74)
Rush Rate	54.8% (51)	45.8% (116)

The season is far from over for Oklahoma, which still holds a shot at playing in the conference title game. The Sooners offense got back to rolling last week against West Virginia, and BYU’s defense is worse.

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Cougars, BYU lacks the weapons to truly threaten the Oklahoma defense. Some opponents have had success rushing against the Sooners, but BYU has no real home-run hitter at the running back position.

Twenty-four points is a lot to lay in a road conference game, but the Cougars are going to have trouble breaking double digits while Oklahoma’s offense continues to roll.

Pick: Oklahoma -24

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