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The Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, Kansas, on Saturday, Nov. 7. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on TNT.
Oklahoma State is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Kansas State, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +168 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 62.5 total points.
Here’s my Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Prediction
- Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Pick: Oklahoma State -5 (Play to -6.5)
My Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State best bet is on the Cowboys to cover as a road favorite with the best odds available on FanDuel. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
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Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -112 | 62.5 -106o / -114u | -205 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -108 | 62.5 -106o / -114u | +168 |
- Oklahoma State vs Kansas State point spread: Oklahoma State -5.5 (-112), Kansas State +5.5 (-108)
- Oklahoma State vs Kansas State over/under: 62.5 (-106o / -114u)
- Oklahoma State vs Kansas State moneyline: Oklahoma State -205, Kansas State +168
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State College Football Preview
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview: Bad Defense Cripples a Good Team
Although fun as hell, Oklahoma State's approach to games is flawed in a big way, and that flaw bit it last week.
Skyler Cassity's defense allowed a ghastly 51 points to Iowa State (70th in Points Per Drive), losing the game in a good, old-fashioned Oklahoma State shootout.
Aiden Flora ran loose for 221 yards, and Iowa State picked up over 580 yards on offense; even struggling Jaylen Raynor threw for 300 yards, his first time since transferring up.
Note: Yes, Wyatt Young's penalty was the ultimate nail in the coffin, but that would not have mattered an inch if the Pokes didn't allow a 50-burger.
Drew Mestemaker continues to build his case as a first-round NFL quarterback, throwing for another 300 yards (his seventh game in a row) and five more touchdowns.
Running back Caleb Hawkins posted his best game of the season with 194 yards on the ground and two scores.
The machine that is the Oklahoma State offense is nearly unstoppable, and the only way to beat this team is to simply outrun it.
Most of the issues on OK State's defense come through the air (in spite of Flora's big game). The only time an opposing Big 12 QB did not surpass 250 yards was Michael Hawkins Jr., who ran for 100 and whose team ran for 335 yards.
Coverage hasn't been any good and, despite LaDainian Fields' nation-best five interceptions, he has also given up three touchdowns and better than a 50% completion rate while in coverage.
The pass rush isn't good enough to complement the secondary, and subpar tackling opens up the short game and the run game for opponents.
Assuming the opposing offense is half competent, Oklahoma State will yield a flood of points.
But with a generous schedule left (Kansas State without its top two QBs, Texas Tech, Arizona State and Kansas), the Pokes may be able to outpace their opponents to an eight-win season.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: QB Carousel Threatens Identity
Tough news came out of Manhattan this past week, as quarterback Avery Johnson was potentially lost for the rest of the season.
Johnson missed Kansas State's last two games, a stretch where it went 0-2, scoring 17 and 21 points in regulation against Arizona State and Colorado, respectively.
Backup Jacob Knuth also missed the Colorado game, giving way to Blake Barnett, who threw for a trio of touchdowns.
The biggest problem is that K-State lost both its top passer and top rusher in Johnson.
Without him, the team's entire offensive identity has vanished. Barnett can move a little, but neither backup poses the exceptional threat with his legs that Johnson has for years.
The Wildcats need to find some sort of explosive potential because the defense gives up way too many big plays. That defense allows 24-31 points per game against opposing Big 12 offenses, requiring the offense to pick up the slack.
Through two games, that hasn't been a check the offense has been able to sign.
Due to the propensity of explosive plays allowed, Kansas State is horrible on late downs. Its 69% Success Rate allowed is 116th nationally, while EPA on late downs ranks 111th.
This is due in part to an aggressive approach by defensive coordinator Jordan Peterson — high-risk, high-reward. K-State is a top-10 team in sack rate (9.7% of dropbacks), just like Texas A&M was last year with Peterson.
But those late-and-long situations were tricky both years, a product of late-down aggression without real stars on the perimeter.
Without Johnson in the lineup, Kansas State is probably done for. The season ends with Oklahoma State (home), TCU (away), Arizona (home) and rival Iowa State (away) — a combination of teams with explosive offenses or stout defenses (and sometimes both).
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
Manhattan, Kansas, is a tough place to play. Since 2016, K-State has gone 44-20 at home and has only posted a losing record at Bill Snyder Family Stadium once in that time frame (coincidentally, 2020 when there weren't full stadiums).
Rarely does K-State find itself an underdog at home, with this week being just the third instance since 2023.
Early action took Kansas State down from +5.5 to +3.5. But before the number hit +3, Oklahoma State backers jumped back in and moved this up as high as +6.5.
The over has also been a popular side, bumping the total up through 62 points — not an insignificant move.
Teams aside, let's read what the market has told us. There's a very strong stance on Oklahoma State, considering books never got to post -3.
Sharp bettors tabbed by Action PRO were happy to jump on -3.5 and -4.5. The move through -4 accounts for about a 6% change in expected win probability, far less than a move through keys -3 (17%) and -7 (14%), but more notable than other dead numbers.
Barnett could find some success against a leaky Pokes defense, and he should remain fairly comfortable against this front. Colorado and Arizona State grade out well defensively — the Buffs are 13th in Adjusted EPA Per Play and Sun Devils, 38th — so those duds offensively should be taken with a grain of salt.
This week makes the Wildcats +5.5 home 'dogs and, adjusting for home-field advantage, that's about an 11-point adjustment between K-State and Oklahoma State combined.
That's far too much. Expect a rebound opportunity for the Pokes against a team reeling without its offensive identity.
Pick: Oklahoma State -5 (Play to -6.5)
