The No. 3 Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) host the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) in a top-10 Big Ten battle on Saturday, Oct. 11, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
These two teams sit atop the Big Ten standings, along with Ohio State, with a 5-0 record and a 2-0 mark in the conference.
So, who holds the advantage in this one? Let's take a look at our Oregon vs. Indiana picks and college football predictions for this marquee matchup on Saturday, Oct. 11.
Oregon vs. Indiana Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
A top-10 Big Ten battle takes the cake as the biggest game of Week 7.
Both Oregon and Indiana had been dominant before their most recent games against Penn State and Iowa, respectively.
The Ducks escaped Happy Valley with a 30-24 overtime win over a top-five Penn State team in a "White Out" environment after previously running the score up in victories over Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern and Oregon State.
After a relatively soft start to the schedule, Dan Lanning's team showed it's for real when it took down the Nittany Lions amid all of the crowd noise and "Mo Bamba" blaring throughout Beaver Stadium.
On the other side, the Hoosiers are coming off a 20-15 win over Iowa in Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes had a chance to derail Indiana's second straight dream season, but they missed a 42-yard field goal to pull ahead, and IU took advantage.
Before that, the Hoosiers had demolished their previous three opponents — No. 17 Illinois, Indiana State and Kennesaw State — by a combined score of 192-19.
This week offers a step up in competition for Curt Cignetti's team, and a chance to prove they still belong in the upper echelon of the sport.
So, where does the value lie?
We polled eight of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under for Saturday's colossal clash. Let's take a look.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Indiana +7.5
The Action Network staff gives a slight lean to Indiana, but I’m taking Oregon to cover the spread Saturday if bettors can find a -7 available.
I love Indiana. It's my only future bet to win the national title, given out on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast over the summer.
That said, I’m sadly betting against one of my favorite coaching staffs and rosters in favor of a more athletic Oregon team with home-field advantage.
If you’re a fan of coordinators, Oregon vs. Indiana is a good one. Personally, I’m excited to watch Oregon’s Will Stein draw up plays against Indiana’s Bryant Haines when the Ducks have the ball.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore looks like a stone-cold killer through five games. The Ducks are averaging 7.3 yards per play, one of the best clips in the country.
Indiana’s offense, meanwhile, is posting 6.9 yards per play behind underrated quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The Hoosiers escaped Iowa two weeks ago, but it snapped a three-game win streak against the spread.
Indiana’s offense is efficient, but it’s straightforward; the Hoosiers expect Elijah Sarratt to win on the outside, Omar Cooper Jr. to move the chains and a mix of running backs to keep offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan’s game plan on track.
As much as I love Shanahan and Indiana’s pieces, I simply don’t think Indiana can be creative enough later in the game — when it’s 50-plus plays in the bag — to score the amount of points it’ll need to cover against Oregon.
I frankly wouldn’t be surprised if Indiana scores early in the first half due to how much I trust the staff to dial up a solid script out of the gates.
However, when it’s all said and done, there’s too much speed and depth offensively for the Ducks to score, especially in explosive fashion.
Our PRO Projections envision a wider margin, with a fair spread of Oregon -8.4.
Also, models crafted by Action Director of Research Evan Abrams show that ranked matchups involving certain spread ranges favor Oregon to cover.
I’ll roll with the Ducks at Autzen. Curt Cignetti and Indiana don’t often get embarrassed, but if there was ever a spot, it might be here.
Over/Under Pick
Over 53.5 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 53.5 | 2 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 53.5
We’re rooting for the offenses on Saturday, with clear conviction on the Hoosiers and Ducks to land over the total.
Both offenses have balled out this season.
Indiana got a nice cupcake schedule to help ease Mendoza into Cignetti’s quarterback-friendly offense. It wasn’t perfect to open — Indiana scored just 27 points against Old Dominion — but the Hoosiers have put up gaudy point totals of 56, 63 and 73 since.
They’ve absolutely shown that if the matchup calls for it, they can get into a track meet — something Dan Lanning may welcome at home, with an edge on the perimeter.
Speaking of gaudy scores: Prior to the rock fight against Penn State, Oregon had erupted for 41, 59 and 69 points this season.
Both teams are coming off a bye, and I believe that extra time off benefits both offenses expanding the playbook.
The weather’s still nice in Oregon, and shouldn’t be an issue. The over is currently the big-money side, and experts in the Action App are also siding with a high-scoring game.
Score points!
Oregon vs. Indiana Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
- Oregon vs. Indiana Spread: Oregon -7.5, Indiana +7.5
- Oregon vs. Indiana Over/Under: 53.5
- Oregon vs. Indiana Moneyline: Oregon ML -285, Indiana ML +230
