Richmond vs Michigan State Odds, Prediction: Value on Total

It's still very early in the college football season, and when it comes to non-conference opponents, some teams prefer to challenge themselves, while others just like to iron out the kinks against inferior competition.

This matchup is the latter scenario for Sparty, as Michigan State hosts Richmond in East Lansing.

It's clear that this matchup sways heavily in the favor of the Spartans, who took care of business in Week 1 against Central Michigan. Many thought the Chippewas would challenge Sparty, but after a hot start, Michigan State slammed the door and won by 24.

Now they get another opportunity to cover a large favorite. But we can't count the Spiders out, as the spread is the great equalizer.

So, will Michigan State roll again this week? Or will Richmond catch the Spartans resting on their laurels?

Let's take a closer look to find out.

Richmond had a tough start to its 2023 campaign, as it was upset by Morgan State in its opener. There are two reasons why that upset was shocking.

The first is that victory by Morgan State was the first time it had won a season-opener in 11 years. The second is that Richmond is a very talented FCS program and came in with much higher expectations.

Richmond returned six 2022 FCS All-Conference players, and they made up a portion of the 13 returning starters in general. This was an offense that took a big step forward last year, so to see the Spiders get held to just 10 points by Morgan State is alarming.

Turnover stifled their production, as the Spiders lost three fumbles and added an interception to pile things on. Those issues, along with the offensive line allowing five sacks, are big causes for concern against a far better defensive team in Michigan State.

If Richmond can't protect the ball — or the quarterback — this one could be over before the Spiders know it.

As I alluded to in the open, Michigan State was a team that the market appeared to be down on entering the season, as many picked Sparty not to cover and possibly lose outright Central Michigan.

Well, they proved them all wrong, as the Spartans dominated the box score, outgaining the Chippewas 406-to-219.

Junior quarterback Noah Kim was particularly impressive, as he seemed to find his groove as the game went along. He pushed the ball down the field — averaging nine yards per completion — and even connected on a 72-yard strike.

Kim's progression looks to provide an excellent complement to a solid run game led by Nathan Carter; the sophomore rushed for 113 yards on 18 attempts and showed he could carry the load offensively.

Richmond didn't have much to worry about in the passing department last week, but it certainly does now. The Spiders will need their veterans to step up if they want to keep this one close.

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This game has blowout written all over it, and Ken Massey of Massey Ratings has the Spartans pegged as 31.5-point favorites. While they could certainly cover that number, I'm looking towards the total, which he has projected at 50.5.

With a number significantly lower than that, I'll take the over.

Pick: Over 45.5