Saturday College Football Picks: Our Favorite Week 6 NCAAF Favorites, Featuring Louisiana & Boise State
Tyler Ingham/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.
Well, we decided last year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites, which we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
I let us down last week with SMU, which prevented us from a third straight Saturday sweep. Fortunately, Collin salvaged the day with Texas, bringing us to 7-3 on the season.
For Week 6, we're rolling with a pair of home favorites. I'll get things started in the afternoon with some Sun Belt chalk, while Collin will close things out in primetime out west.
Stuckey: Louisiana -2.5
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 68.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 68.5 -105o / -115u | -132 |
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Despite not getting to the window with Southern Miss last week, I'm going back to the well and fading Texas State.
I truly believe the Bobcats have become overvalued in the market after getting off to an unexpectedly fast start against one of the softest schedules in the country.
The market may still be overvaluing Texas State's season-opening victory over Baylor. Not only does that win look worse than it did at the time, but Texas State also had the benefit of surprising the Bears with a new staff, personnel and scheme — similar to what we saw with Colorado in its opening week stunner over TCU.
Since then, Texas State has three wins over doormats in Southern Miss, Nevada and Jackson State, as well as a loss to UTSA in which its offense could never get going.
The Bobs are undoubtedly significantly better on offense under new head coach G.J. Kinne and Auburn transfer quarterback TJ Finley. However, the offense still has major efficiency issues, which even led to a 17-0 home deficit against a Nevada team that might be the worst FBS team this season.
The consistency is just not there on a down-to-down basis, and that'll eventually burn them, especially on the road against a competent opponent. Plus, this is still a very bad defense that ULL can exploit.
Based on my power ratings projections and the spot, I have to back the Ragin' Cajuns at under a field goal at home.
Wilson: Boise State -9.5
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +278 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -355 |
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After two games on the road, Boise State will return to the friendly confines of the smurf turf in Albertsons Stadium.
Quarterback play has been inefficient in new coordinator Bush Hamdan’s offense, leading to a showdown with San Jose State that could see multiple players under center for the Broncos.
Taylen Green had an explosive 2022 but has been vanilla in five games this season. The third-year quarterback has experienced a positive move in big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio, but a drop in adjusted completion percentage and an increase in drops has made way for an additional quarterback.
Head coach Andy Avalos will give Maddux Madsen a look under center and claims that utilizing both quarterbacks will give Boise State its best chance.
While Madsen and Green duke it out for starting duties, the handicap in this game comes down to San Jose State's inability to stop the run. As a result, Boise running back Ashton Jeanty should run wild and add to his superb season-long statistics, which include eight rushing touchdowns and an average of 3.5 yards after contact.
Not only has the sophomore created explosives, but Jeanty has also generated a whopping 22 missed tackles over just the past two weeks. He's one of the best backs in the country that many don't know about.
San Jose State has severe struggles against teams that like to run. The Spartans rank bottom-10 nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
Both Air Force and Oregon State — two heavy rush offenses — had no issues blowing out the Spartans and posted season-high Rushing Success Rates with almost no resistance or stuffs up front.
Look for an invigorated offense with a quarterback competition to get going by leaning on the ground game to open up some other things downfield.
We may also finally see Green be given the green light to leave the pocket and create explosives with his legs. Meanwhile, Jeanty should continue to rack up touchdowns and missed tackles against a San Jose State defense that has been dreadful against the run.
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