Projected Week 1 Spreads & Adjusted Win Totals for Every SEC Team After Updated Schedule Release
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No college football fan wants news about their program during the month of August. Quarterback competition, scheme adjustments mixed with suspension, and injury news flow through the news cycle.
Taking the motto “no news is good news” generally applies in August. That changed on Monday afternoon, as the SEC released its first week of conference games.
|Week 1||Texas A&M -37 vs. Vanderbilt|
|Week 1||LSU -26 vs. Mississippi State|
|Week 1||Georgia -24 at Arkansas|
|Week 1||Alabama -19.5 at Missouri|
|Week 1||Auburn -11 vs. Kentucky|
|Week 1||Florida -8 at Ole Miss|
|Week 1||South Carolina PK vs. Tennessee|
Later Monday night, the SEC released its full-season schedule via the SEC Network:
The SEC has been the leader in keeping a 2020 season alive, along with the ACC and Big 12. From a non-Power Five perspective the Sun Belt, American, Conference USA and a few independents remain dedicated to fall football.
I’ve updated my SEC win totals now that we’ve got a clearer picture of the schedule.
These numbers reflect the 10-game season only, and will not include projections for any games outside of the SEC.
SEC Win Totals
Georgia takes top honors in our projected win totals with the addition of Mississippi State and Arkansas to the schedule, two teams expected to fill the basement of the West.
The return of every offensive lineman, experienced receiving core and a new offensive coordinator should jumpstart the Bulldogs. Florida is power rated closely with Georgia, but a road trip to Texas A&M increases the strength of schedule.
Two teams similar in power rating, offensive returning production and success rate rank on both sides of the ball are Tennessee and Kentucky. The Volunteers draw a road trip to Jordan-Hare while the Wildcats gain a trip to Bryant-Denny. The battle for third place in the East will likely come down to their head-to-head game in Knoxville.
Say goodbye to the cupcake schedule Texas A&M obtained through the month of September and October. Florida rolls on to the Aggies’ schedule along with a trip to Tennessee. While my power ratings were high on Jimbo Fisher contending in the West, Alabama remains the alpha with Kentucky and Missouri added to the schedule.
LSU may have won the COVID reshuffle sweepstakes with Missouri and Vanderbilt added to the schedule. The Tigers return just 30% of the national championship offense after the departure of Joe Burrow and passing game coordinator Joe Brady. This is still a deeply talented team, as the market may shift enough for favorable betting numbers on coach Orgeron’s team.
Bo Nix season will be in full effect as Auburn draws additional games with Tennessee and South Carolina. That is manageable for Gus Malzahn and his new offensive coordinator Chad Morris. The issue with Auburn in 2020 is a returning production number of 60% on both sides of the ball. The Tigers will lack experience in the trenches, especially.
The air raid offense comes to Starkville, but a schedule full of NFL talent secondaries await Mike Leach. Alabama, LSU and Auburn will be yearly staples, but in 2020 Mississippi State adds Georgia to the schedule. Arkansas is projected to win less than a single game, with the Razorbacks’ best chance coming against Missouri.
Expect a trip to Columbia to serve as a Super Bowl for head coach Sam Pittman and defensive coordinator/former Missouri head coach Barry Odom.