SMU vs. UCF Odds, Picks & Predictions: The Spread Bet to Make for Wednesday College Football

SMU vs. UCF Odds, Picks & Predictions: The Spread Bet to Make for Wednesday College Football article feature image

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: SMU wide receiver Rashee Rice.

SMU vs. UCF Odds

Wednesday, Oct. 5
7 p.m. ET
SMU Odds
-105o / -115u
UCF Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

We have ourselves a treat here. For the first time this season, we have college football on a Wednesday night.

While bettors and college football fans rejoice over that fact, it also helps that the matchup is pretty good. The SMU Mustangs will hit the road to the "Bounce House" to take on the UCF Knights.

The Mustangs have come crashing down the last two weeks, losing by one score to TCU and Maryland in each of their previous two games. However, SMU has shown many positive signs despite the losing streak, and the fact that this matchup has been delayed twice could help it be even more prepared.

However, that edge works the other way as well.

The Knights have been solid on both sides of the ball, and their 3-1 record is well earned. They've played two ACC teams and a potent FAU squad. However, this may be their toughest test to date. Are they up to the task? Let's take a closer look to find out.

Southern Methodist Mustangs

The Mustangs offense has been a well-oiled machine thus far. They come in averaging 36.3 points per game to go along with 524 yards. Those numbers are good for 21st and sixth in the country, respectively.

A large majority of the offense has been supplied by quarterback Tanner Mordecai. He has been airing it out, as his average of 389 passing yards per game is the highest average in the country. He'll have the opportunity to keep that top spot in this matchup against a Knights secondary that has not been tested to this magnitude.

UCF's pass defense numbers are solid. It ranks 13th in opponent completion percentage, 48th in yards per pass and 32nd in Passing Success Rate Allowed. However, it hasn't had to defend the pass often this season and will now have to face upwards of 45 pass attempts in this matchup. With that level of volume, Mordecai is bound to find some holes.

The Mustangs may hurt the Knights even more on the ground. UCF ranks 115th in opponent yards per rush allowed. It now finds itself in a position to be dominated in the trenches, as it's outranked 15th to 61st in Line Yards.

We could hear Tre Siggers' name quite often in this matchup.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Central Florida Knights

We go from one offense that will succeed through the air to another that could find just as much success on the ground.

UCF is led by their dual-threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, who leads the team in rushing by a wide margin this season. He's tied with Isaish Bowser for the most carries on the team but has outgained the running back by nearly 200 yards.

Plumlee and UCF's trio of running backs made the Knights one of the most potent rushing offenses in the country. Combined, they rank 16th in yards per rush and are sixth in rushing attempts per game.

Their service academy-level rushing attack may have plenty of success against this SMU defense, as the Mustangs have been ravaged on the ground.

SMU comes into this matchup ranked 121st in yards per carry allowed. It may have trouble getting a push up front, as the Mustangs are outranked 10th to 82nd in Line Yards.

SMU better have used the extra preparation time to scheme against this rushing attack, or it could be a long night for its defense.

SMU vs. UCF Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and UCF match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. UCF Defense
Rush Success4732
Line Yards1561
Pass Success1832
Pass Blocking**2334
Finishing Drives486
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UCF Offense vs. SMU Defense
Rush Success2567
Line Yards1082
Pass Success11435
Pass Blocking**17102
Finishing Drives11263
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling7366
PFF Coverage4849
SP+ Special Teams5389
Seconds per Play19.8 (2)24.0 (24)
Rush Rate44.9% (111)62.6% (16)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

SMU vs. UCF Betting Pick

Both offenses have the edge here, but the Mustangs have a bit more to their attack.

Mordecai has led a very vertical passing attack that will create explosive plays. However, they'll also be able to run the ball in this matchup and should exploit it with a higher rush rate.

Yes, the Knights' ground game is going to find success, but it works against them because SMU plays fast and doesn't need much time to score. So, using the rush to play keep-away won't help.

Find the best number you can, and back the Mustangs here on Wednesday night football.

Pick: SMU +3

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.